Murders plummet nationwide, but rise in Minneapolis

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The homicide rate has plummeted nationwide, according to provisional data by analyst Jeff Asher.

While the final numbers are subject to slight change, murders declined by about 16% relative to 2023, falling at the fastest rate on record, according to Asher’s analysis. All told, the numbers suggest that the homicide rate has finally fallen back to pre-pandemic levels, representing a return to normalcy after years of social disorder. 

Minneapolis remains a notable exception, however.

There were 76 homicides in the city in 2024, up from 72 the prior year, according to provisional data. That number remains well above the 48 homicides recorded in 2019.

That year the homicide rate in Minneapolis was slightly above the national number. But last year’s citywide homicide rate was more than triple the national level, reflecting the city’s ongoing public safety challenges. 

Minneapolis’ exceptionalism is likely rooted in several causes. The police murder of George Floyd drove protests and unrest nationwide, and subsequent fissures between police departments and the communities they serve may have resulted in increases in some types of violent crime. This pattern of spikes in crime following protests was also seen following widespread demonstrations in Ferguson and Baltimore following police killings about a decade ago. 

Those effects may have been particularly strong in Minneapolis. Following Floyd’s murder, a wave of police officers left the force, often with workers’ compensation claims or duty disability retirements, leaving MPD with 300 fewer employees in 2023 than in 2019. The city recently finalized a consent decree with the U.S. Department of Justice mandating various reforms after an investigation detailed years of unjustified police violence and shocking racial disparities in enforcement.

Other researchers have argued that the recent spike in homicides owe more to economic issues than to policing concerns. Last month a Brookings Institution report found that homicide increases in 2020 were “directly connected to local unemployment and school closures in low-income areas.”

“Cities with larger numbers of young men forced out of work and teen boys pushed out of school in low-income neighborhoods during March and early April, had greater increases in homicide from May to December that year, on average,” the authors found.

The nexus between school closures and homicides may be especially pertinent in Minneapolis. More than half of Minneapolis school students are chronically absent from class, meaning they miss 10% or more of the school year, according to state data. That absenteeism rate is well above the national average, and is even higher among Black students.

Authorities have noted with alarm that younger teenagers and children are committing more serious crimes in the city. In September, for instance, a 10-year-old boy was charged with car theft. Among Minneapolis homicides for which the age of the offender is known, about 10% are committed by children under the age of 18 and roughly 40% by those under 24. 

“Teen boys who are not in school and young men who are unemployed are much more likely to engage in violence than other neighborhood residents,” the Brookings study concluded.

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