Rafael strengthened into a Category 3 hurricane overnight, with sustained winds of 120 mph, but the latest path seems to be heading away from Florida and the rest of the U.S. in a meandering trip through the Gulf of Mexico where it is expected to weaken over the next few days, according to the latest update from the National Hurricane Center.
Meanwhile, a trough of low pressure near Puerto Rico is bringing heavy rain and thunderstorms to the area but has a low chance of development over the next week.
Rafael drenched western Cuba and took out the entire island’s electrical grid before entering and reintensifying. A mid-level ridge is pushing the storm westward, farther away from the Sunshine State and away from a nontropical storm over the South Central states that might have drawn it northward into a Gulf coast landfall, according to AccuWeather forecasters.
“As Rafael takes this west-southwest track, it will be subject to increasing wind shear (disruptive breezes), which will cause it to gradually lose wind intensity,” AccuWeather meteorologist Bernie Rayno said.
Swells generated by Rafael are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along the Gulf Coast for the next few days.
Interests in the southern and southwestern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system.
➤ Spaghetti models for Hurricane Rafael
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The next named storm of the season will be Sara.
Here’s the latest update from the NHC as of 4 a.m. Friday, Nov. 8:
Hurricane Rafael: What you should know
Special note on the NHC cone: The forecast track shows the most likely path of the center of the storm. It does not illustrate the full width of the storm or its impacts, and the center of the storm is likely to travel outside the cone up to 33% of the time.
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Location: 24.5N 88.0W, about 245 miles north-northeast of Progreso, Mexico, about 585 miles east of the mouth of the Rio Grande.
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Maximum sustained winds: 120 mph
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Present movement: West at 9 mph
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Minimum central pressure: 956 MB
Spaghetti models for Hurricane Rafael
Special note about spaghetti models: Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.
➤ Spaghetti models for Hurricane Rafael
Florida impacts from Hurricane Rafael
Potential impacts for Florida from the National Hurricane Center:
National Hurricane Center map: What else is out there and how likely are they to strengthen?
Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center include:
Near Greater Antilles: A trough of low pressure located near north of Puerto Rico continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some gradual development of this system is possible during the next couple of days while it moves westward near the Greater Antilles.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible across the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and the southeastern Bahamas through Saturday.
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Formation chance through 48 hours: low, 20 percent.
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Formation chance through seven days: low, 20 percent.
What do the colored areas on the NOAA map mean?
The hatched areas on a tropical outlook map indicate “areas where a tropical cyclone — which could be a tropical depression, tropical storm or hurricane — could develop,” said National Hurricane Center Deputy Director Jamie Rhome.
The colors make it visibly clear how likely a system could develop with yellow being low, orange medium and red high.
The National Hurricane Center generally doesn’t issue tropical advisories until a there is a named storm, but there is an exception.
“If a system is near land and there is potential for development, the National Hurricane Center won’t wait before it issues advisories, even if the system hasn’t become an actual storm. This gives residents time to prepare,” Rhome said.
Who is likely to be impacted?
Hurricane Rafael’s track is expected to spare the central Gulf region from flooding rain and damaging winds, according to AccuWeather forecasters.
AccuWeather meteorologists said the system in the southwestern Atlantic is very weak but is dumping rain over the Leeward Islands and should move west into the weekend before turning away from Florida.
“If the shift of winds fails to occur, there could be a way for it to reach Florida,” AccuWeather said.
Forecasters urge all residents to continue monitoring the tropics and to always be prepared.
Weather watches and warnings issued in Florida
When does hurricane season end?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.
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This article originally appeared on Fort Myers News-Press: National Hurricane Center tracks Cat 3 Rafael in Gulf, system in Caribbean
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