Team that will be most missed in the playoffs
Cincinnati Bengals. This is the obvious answer, as it’s a bummer when the team with one of the NFL’s best quarterbacks (Joe Burrow), the receiving triple crown winner (Ja’Marr Chase) and the NFL’s sack leader (Trey Hendrickson) is on the outside looking in. Plus, it would certainly be fun to watch opposing offenses torch the Bengals’ iffy defense. As it is, we’ll have to wait until next season to know whether a defensive overhaul (including the firing of defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo) will bear any dividends. Doug Farrar
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Cincinnati Bengals. Burrow delivered an MVP-caliber season and Chase achieved the rare triple crown of receiving, but the Bengals’ five-game win streak to end the regular season wasn’t enough to cancel out their 4-8 start, inconsistent play on both lines and a dismal 4-7 record in one-score games. Bryan Armen Graham
Cincinnati Bengals. I’m still salivating at the notion of a Bengals-Bills wild-card showdown that will never be. Thanks a lot, Kansas City. Whether intentional or not, the entire AFC owes Andy Reid a few new Hawaiian shirts. The Bengals ended the season on fire with five straight wins. Denver are a fine addition but let’s be real: Burrow and Chase would draw significantly more interest. New rule proposal: a team with the best wideout in football who proves it by winning the triple crown gets a free pass to the postseason. Melissa Jacobs
Seattle Seahawks. The Seahawks deserved better than to have their season end after winning six of eight games down the stretch. It means Geno Smith, the NFL’s perennially most improved franchise QB, is denied a chance to pursue his revenge against the second-seeded Vikings after coming three points short against them last month. Instead, his future will hang in the balance as the Seahawks contemplate their fresh course under new coach Mike Macdonald – who just cut Smith’s coordinator loose. AL
High-seeded team at risk of going out early
Kansas City Chiefs. It’s generally a bad idea to bet against Andy Reid, Steve Spagnuolo and Patrick Mahomes when the playoffs come around. But this year’s Chiefs have put so many wins together with spit and baling wire, and one never knows how sustainable that is, even when they’re setting records with it. The Chiefs’ middling passing game has enjoyed a mild rebirth with the Week 16 debut of receiver Hollywood Brown, and Spags will always find a way to get it done, but the margins for error are awfully narrow this time around. DF
Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Despite their offensive prowess, the third-seeded Bucs have a defense that has shown vulnerabilities, particularly against mobile quarterbacks like Washington’s Jayden Daniels. On the AFC side, the second-seeded Bills appear bound for an awfully harsh divisional-round clash with the Ravens. BAG
Kansas City Chiefs. How much fairy dust is left for the two-time defending Super Bowl champions? They’re the new Patriots in the sense that you should never count them out in the postseason, especially with home-field advantage. But this team has severe issues with its rotation at offensive tackle; if they keep Joe Thuney at LT, it undercuts their interior line. There are a lot of AFC playoff teams capable of exposing this weakness, espcially with this current version of Mahomes and his not-exactly-spectacular cadre of weapons. MJ
Kansas City Chiefs. It’s been a weird year for the Chiefs. They’ve been so far from on form, and yet they kept stacking wins. Still, their blowout loss to the Broncos in the season finale shows how vulnerable they could be if they were to lose even one of their stars – Mahomes, not least. AL
Long shot to win
Green Bay Packers. The 11-6 Packers finished third in the NFC North behind the Lions and the Vikings, which has them on the outside looking in from a popular perspective, and it doesn’t help that they start their playoff run by traveling to 14-3 Philadelphia. But it’s important to note that as Matt LaFleur’s offense has really centered around running back Josh Jacobs, that offense has risen from eighth to second in DVOA (opponent-adjusted efficiency). Moreover, Green Bay’s defense, led by first-year coordinator Jeff Hafley, has seen a similar DVOA bump since Week 10, going from 14th to fifth. You never know when the right wild-card team will surprise, but it’s generally the one with the hot hand at the time, and the seventh-seeded Packers do qualify at this point. DF
Minnesota Vikings or Green Bay Packers. How good was the NFC North this year? The Lions, Vikings and Packers finished with a combined 34-5 record against the other 29 NFL teams. That means the No 5 and No 7 seeds on the NFC side, also-rans nearly always, have far more plausible Super Bowl hopes than in typical years. BAG
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Los Angeles Chargers. Who’s got it better than the Chargers? Nobody. Jim Harbaugh transformed a squad that went 5-12 in 2023 into an impressive 11-6 contender. Sure, there are better all-around teams and even quarterbacks in these playoffs, but the Harbaugh magic is real. In his four years helming San Francisco, the 49ers went to three conference championship games and one Super Bowl. The Chargers defense needs a boost; perhaps an ideal opening-round tilt against the Texans will do the trick. But all the weaknesses including an inconsistent offense aside, there is something extra ruthless and intimidating about a Harbaugh-led team in the postseason. MJ
Washington Commanders. Rookie QB Jayden Daniels has made anything possible in Washington, harking to halcyon days when RGIII had football fans inside the Beltway and beyond dreaming of another Lombardi trophy. But where Robert Griffin played like a man tempting fate, Daniels is the picture of control: unflappable and unsurprised by the pressures that overwhelm him. His knack for the moment, combined with his veteran teammates and a Super Bowl-caliber head coach in Dan Quinn, will take these reborn Commanders farther than expected. AL
Most important player this postseason
Lamar Jackson, QB, Baltimore Ravens. The 28-year-old could do more to build on his legacy in this postseason than any other player, because Jackson’s playoff performances have generally been less than stellar. But this is also a different Lamar. He’s always been supremely athletic and he’s been a much better pocket passer than people think, but this season – his second under offensive coordinator Todd Monken – Jackson has risen to the rare status of the opponent-proof quarterback who can scald any defense no matter what it throws at him. Now’s the time to prove it, once and for all. DF
Jared Goff, QB, Detroit Lions. The average football fan is not conditioned to take the Lions seriously given their dismal history going back many decades, but this Detroit team are the current Super Bowl favorites on merit and their gifted signal-caller is one of the biggest reasons why. After swerving one injury after another to lock down the NFC’s top seed, the Lions will rely on Goff’s decision-making, experience and nous as they bid to reach their first Super Bowl ever and first NFL title game in 67 years. BAG
Sam Darnold, QB, Minnesota Vikings. The clock struck midnight and then some with Darnold’s stinker of a game against the Lions on Sunday night. This version of Darnold was jittery and misfired throughout. Another one of those and the Vikings’ season will be over and Darnold likely on the lookout for yet another team. But a rebound game would say a lot about Darnold’s resilience, potentially cementing his future in Minnesota. MJ
Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs. Where he goes, so goes the three-peat. AL
AFC Championship Game
Ravens over Chiefs. DF
Ravens over Chargers. BAG
Bills over Chargers. MJ
Chiefs over Bills. AL
NFC Championship Game
Lions over Eagles. DF
Eagles over Vikings. BAG
Lions over Eagles. MJ
Lions over Commanders. AL
Your Super Bowl champion will be …
Ravens over Lions. If the Lions were even remotely healthy on defense, I might reverse this result. But as much as Detroit defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn has done to mitigate his personnel shortfalls this season (and he’s done an amazing job), it’s hard for me to imagine that the combination of Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry won’t give the Lions a few more bruises than they’re equipped to handle. All it takes for a defense to lose to Baltimore’s offense is for one guy to take the wrong angle, and things tend to snowball from there. DF
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Eagles over Ravens. A mere 12 months after the wildest in-season unravelling in NFL history, Philadelphia will reach their second Super Bowl in three years behind a defense that’s been completely reinvented under Vic Fangio. The first Eagles team to rank No 1 in total defense since Bud Carson’s epochal 1991 unit, they are young and fast and athletic at all three levels with a chemistry and togetherness that seem to be improving week to week. And that’s before you get to an offense tricked out with the star wideout tandem of AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith, plus an imposing ground attack led by 2,000-yard rusher Saquon Barkley and the NFL’s best offensive line. Fangio and co made Baltimore’s vaunted offense look average when they met in December and they’ll do it again when they run back their I-95 showdown in the Big Easy. BAG
Bills over Lions. C’mon, who doesn’t want a Buffalo-Detroit Super Bowl? This has all the making of a classic, but the Bills will prevail thanks to the presumptive NFL MVP. I’m not sure how Detroit can defensively neutralize Josh Allen, who is playing on a different stratosphere this season. The Lions’ send-the-house approach that rattled Sam Darnold in Week 18 won’t work on Allen. Buffalo’s run defense has had issues all season, and containing Sonic (Jahmyr Gibbs) and Boom (David Montgomery) will be a tall task. But the defense just needs to shore up on third-down plays a bit and let Allen do his thing. MJ
Lions over Chiefs. In the battle of banged-up juggernauts, Detroit runs roughshod over the twice-reigning champions and brings glory to a long-suffering fanbase. Ben Johnson’s relentless offensive scheme proves so overpowering that head coach Dan Campbell only gambles on fourth down to run up the score, clearing a path for Jared Goff’s Super Bowl-MVP redemption. It goes to show that the Lions’ close win over the Chiefs in Week 1 of the 2023 season was no fluke, but also heralds the brain drain to come as Johnson and defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn are snapped up for head coaching jobs amid the falling confetti. It’s a shining moment for a beleaguered city, but – like their neighbor across Lake Michigan in the early 80s – ultimately won-and-done. AL
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