The Big Apple is preparing for yet another change in weather patterns after last year’s warmer-than-average winter. According to meteorologists and NOAA’s U.S. Winter Outlook, the upcoming winter will likely be influenced by a developing La Niña.
FOX 5 NY’s Nick Gregory shared his winter weather outlook for this year, including the potential for a nor’easter and his snow total predictions.
Winter officially begins in the Northern Hemisphere on Dec. 21 with the winter solstice – the day with the least amount of possible daylight and the longest night.
La Niña winter weather forecast
La Niña occurs when cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean influence global weather patterns. The phenomenon typically brings drier and warmer conditions to the southern U.S., while regions such as the Great Lakes and parts of the Northeast experience cooler and wetter weather.
“A La Niña pattern can lead to above average temperatures for NYC and at or just above average snowfall,” Gregory said. “Some previous La Nina winters have produced strong nor’easters and blizzards.”
However, this year’s La Niña is expected to be weak and may only last until early spring, making its impact on the Tri-State area more uncertain than in stronger La Niña years.
“The upcoming La Niña is forecasted to be a rather weak one, which means it may produce the characteristic effects of a more moderate La Nina,” Gregory said.
Will there be a nor’easter this winter?
For New York City and the surrounding region, the La Niña pattern suggests a winter that could see average to slightly below-average temperatures.
NEW YORK CITY – JANUARY 30: People walk through Brooklyn’s Prospect Park a day after a storm brought heavy snow, freezing temperatures and high winds to the area on January 30, 2022 in New York City. Much of the Northeast received over a foot of snow during the nor’easter on Saturday. (Photo by Spencer Platt/Getty Images)
NEW YORK CITY – JANUARY 30: People walk through Brooklyn’s Prospect Park a day after a storm brought heavy snow, freezing temperatures and high winds to the area on January 30, 2022 in New York City. Much of the Northeast received over a foot of snow during the nor’easter on Saturday. (Photo by Spencer Platt/Getty Images)
“NYC will always see a nor’easter during winter,” Gregory said. “The issue will be how cold it is when the storm is striking the area. A weak La Niña may create a rain/snow battle line right across the NYC area and nearby suburbs.”
How much snow will fall in the NYC area?
Gregory predicts the city could receive around 20 inches of snow this winter, compared to the typical seasonal average of 28 inches.
“We’ll likely have above average temperatures this winter along with more snow than last year with somewhere near 18-23″ but that is below the average snowfall for a winter in NYC,” Gregory said.
Early call snowfall predictions, according to FOX 5 NY’s Nick Gregory.
Early call snowfall predictions, according to FOX 5 NY’s Nick Gregory.
Meanwhile, the lower Hudson Valley could see slightly more snowfall, with totals ranging between 20 and 25 inches, with more snowfall further north. Much of the winter may bring a mix of rain and snow along the coast, with heavier snow falling further north.
Historically, the first measurable snow (accumulation of one inch or more) tends to fall in the NYC area around Dec. 13. The earliest measurable snowfall was on October 29, 2011, when 2.9 inches fell days before Halloween.
Regional, national winter outlooks
NOAA
NOAA’s broader winter outlook highlights wetter-than-average conditions across the northern U.S., particularly in the Great Lakes region, where colder temperatures and above-average precipitation are expected. Meanwhile, the southern U.S. will likely experience a drier and warmer winter.
For the tri-state area, the region is expected to be on the fringe of these patterns. A weak La Niña often leads to storm systems taking a more northern track, which could leave New York City in the midst of a battle between rain and snow throughout the season.
The Old Farmer’s Almanac
The Old Farmer’s Almanac predicts a “gentler-than-normal season” that’s “not so rough and tough” in the interior Northeast.
The Old Farmer’s Almanac Winter Outlook for 2024-25. (The Old Farmer’s Almanac)
The Old Farmer’s Almanac Winter Outlook for 2024-25. (The Old Farmer’s Almanac)
For the Interstate 95 corridor, which includes the Tri-State area, snowfall is predicted to be below average in the North but above average in the South, with the coldest temperatures in early and late January and late February.
Farmers’ Almanac winter 2024
The Farmers’ Almanac says to “brace yourself for a Wet Winter Whirlwind!” Their annual extended weather prediction calls for a season of rapid-fire storms that will bring both rain and snow.
The listing shows a very active storm track that will deliver frequent bouts of heavy precipitation and strong and gusty winds over most of the eastern half of the country.
Here’s a look at the Farmers’ Almanac winter 2025 extended weather forecast. (FOX Weather)
Here’s a look at the Farmers’ Almanac winter 2025 extended weather forecast. (FOX Weather)
According to their outlook, the Northeast will be stormy with above-normal amounts of winter precipitation and near-to-above-normal temperatures.
They also predict the heaviest snowfall will fall over the interior and mountainous areas, while the coast will see sleet and rain – especially near and along the I-95 corridor.
The almanac is “red flagging” the final week of January due to a very active storm track across most of the country’s eastern half.
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