Ocasio-Cortez faces uncertain political future

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) is facing an uncertain future after a pivotal setback this week, when she lost her race to lead Democrats on the House Oversight Committee.

The 74-year-old Rep. Gerry Connolly’s (D-Va.) victory sparked new anger in liberals pushing for a generational change in leadership, and some are wondering how Ocasio-Cortez will play her cards next.

The “squad” member’s House defeat shows the delicate nature of post-November politics. Her centrist colleagues’ promotion of Connolly sent a clear message that Democrats want to suppress left-wing ideology as they look to rebrand its image, challenging Ocasio-Cortez’s place in the party, which has lost considerable power in Washington.

“Some of the younger members need to be willing to potentially take risk for their careers in Congress, in the political establishment, by calling out Democratic process as harmful to the power-building that they say that they desire,” said Corryn Freeman, the executive director of Future Coalition, an organization that mobilizes young progressives. “I think she needs to say that out loud.”

Some progressives believe she can work more effectively to create fresh energy outside of Capitol Hill. Outside the lower chamber, she would have more freedom to critique the mentality that made fellow Democrats embrace Connolly, stifling her chance to check Republicans under a second Trump term.

While the 35-year-old congresswoman is more outspoken than most in the caucus, she’s still constrained by the House procedures, order and tradition that can dictate who advances within the ranks. Speaking out more forcefully would likely create ill will in the Democratic caucus, but some say it’s a necessary step toward more national prominence.

“It puts her at risk forever having the opportunity within the party to sit in the seats that we believe she should be sitting in,” Freeman said. “But honestly at the rate at which the Democratic Party is moving, by the time AOC is able to get into a senior seat, a seat of leadership or power in Congress, someone else it will be their time.”

“She needs to speak up and I think that she should call out this move of party politics aligning with seniority practice as harmful to what the will of the people are,” she added.

Democrats have been fighting among each other following President-elect Trump’s win. Moderates have banded together to pin losses on the left. Already villainized by the right, Ocasio-Cortez was considered by many in the House as a risk to promote for the top investigations role. Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), the former Speaker, led the effort against her, reportedly working the phones for Connolly to the frustration of progressives who saw the longtime leader as politically hurtful.

Multiple sources told The Hill they were surprised by her loss. Some were optimistic when she appeared to be gaining momentum against the more senior member, only to shrink back, demonstrating the short leash congressional progressives have within their party following Trump’s victory.

“The party made its decision. I respect the outcome of the results,” Ocasio-Cortez told reporters on Tuesday. “I ran the best race I could. We’re moving forward.”

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In some activist circles, her response was considered too tepid. Some wanted her to push back against the loss by detailing a Plan B, offering some reassurance that she’d remerge in another capacity. When that didn’t happen, some said it mirrored a broader soul-searching within the progressive movement, where even the most prominent figures are still figuring out how to respond in the face of defeat.

“Has she become more savvy and realized you do have to play a game? I don’t think she’s moderated on her core values or beliefs,” said Joseph Geevarghese, executive director of Our Revolution. “Given that though, it’s malpractice for the Democratic Party to sideline one of its most charismatic young spokespeople who has, as Steny Hoyer said, ‘a gazillion followers.’”

“This is one of the most popular politicians among young people in the United States. Why would we not give her the first chair to hold Trump and the oligarchs accountable? I would argue it’s because I’m not sure the Democratic establishment wants to do that,” said Geevarghese.

“I don’t think they want a full-throated populist anti-establishment, anti-corporate critique.”

Meanwhile, other House Democrats are rejecting the suggestion that Ocasio-Cortez’s loss is anything but a minor bump in the road for a lawmaker they consider to be a unique talent — and a blockbuster communicator — whose star will only continue to rise. Those voices are quick to point out that she was elected only six years ago and has built an enormous following since then, earning a national base of support that won’t abate a bit from one failed run at a committee post.

“Her future is dazzlingly bright. She’s only in her third term, and it shows that she’s got remarkable support that she could come even that close,” said Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-Md.), the current ranking member of the Oversight panel whose jump to the Judiciary Committee sparked the contest between Connolly and Ocasio-Cortez to begin with.

Raskin had tapped Ocasio-Cortez to serve as his vice-ranking member over the past two years. He gave her a glowing review as a “very serious and effective” leader in that spot. He also suggested that, despite her loss, she remains in a position to write her own ticket when it comes to leading subcommittees or assuming other positions of authority in the coming Congress.

“She is a member of growing influence within the caucus, and she obviously has extraordinary support in the country,” Raskin said. “She speaks to millions of young people who may not be relating to other members of Congress right now. It’s really just a question of where she wants to position herself.”

Raskin floated one hypothetical post where he thinks Ocasio-Cortez would excel: the ranking member spot on the House DOGE subcommittee, a GOP effort to slash federal spending that’s being formed under the umbrella of Oversight. Fellow progressives like Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), her close ally for whom she has served as a surrogate, have expressed a willingness to explore working with Republicans on waste.

“She could make powerful arguments for making different kinds of cuts to corporate welfare and military bloat, and see if she could find common ground. But she would not let the Republicans get away with disinformation,” Raskin said. “So I think there are a lot of different positions she can occupy in the next Congress. It’s just really a question of what she wants to do. And as we get closer to the 2026 election, her political role assumes more and more importance.”

Other Democrats went even further, urging Democratic leaders to carve out a special position for Ocasio-Cortez to capitalize on her distinctive popularity and powers of communication.

“I think it’s a terrible mistake not to bring her into the fold and give her a very important position, because she brings with her a group of people that, obviously, is slipping away from us. And we need her, we have to find a place for her,” said Rep. Juan Vargas (D-Calif.). “This is a terrible missed opportunity if we don’t.”

Asked when such a promotion should occur, Vargas didn’t skip a beat.

“We need her right now. She has the best communication skills out of all of us,” he said.

“What we need to do is everyone has to stand back a little and say, ‘OK, what are we doing right and what are we doing wrong?’” Vargas continued. “One of the things that we’re doing wrong is not communicating with young people. We’re doing that wrong. Who communicates the best with young people in our whole caucus, by far? She does. And so let’s find a place and give her a prominent spot, whatever that is. Figure it out. Let’s figure out something new.

“We can’t do things the way we used to, because obviously that’s not working.”

Ocasio-Cortez stunned Washington in 2018 when she defeated Rep. Joe Crowley (D-N.Y.), who was then the House Democratic Caucus chairman, in a primary upset for the ages. She quickly made waves on Capitol Hill, joining a climate protest outside Pelosi’s office even before she was sworn in to Congress — a move that angered some of her colleagues.

She has also endorsed several liberal candidates over the years who were challenging Democratic incumbents, which alienated some members even further.

More recently, however, Ocasio-Cortez has shown signs of abandoning at least some of the rebellious positions that defined her earliest years in office. This cycle marked the first time she paid dues to the Democrats’ campaign arm. And with her own reelection assured, Ocasio-Cortez spent the late campaign season stumping in battleground states on behalf of Vice President Harris.

Vargas said that whatever lingering tensions remain between Ocasio-Cortez and more moderate Democrats, they should be swept under the rug.

“If people have hard feelings, get over it, guys. We lost. We got our asses kicked. Let’s get on offense here,” Vargas said. “If you’re a coach — and I coached some baseball for a while — you put your best players out there when you need ’em. This is our best player. Why the hell’s she sitting on the bench? Get her off the bench. Get her in the game.”

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