Shortly before Christmas I picked up a new Brompton G Line electric bicycle – a top of the range new style machine from one of the great pioneers of folding bike technology. I had ordered it in late summer, and it was delivered nearly two months later than originally scheduled. This was not Brompton’s fault – far from it.
The bike is driven by an electric motor of original design and controls – created by the firm itself. The production of this was outsourced – and supplies were interrupted this autumn because of an urgent requirement from the Defence Ministry for components for new drones for the military – as the CEO Will Butler-Adams told the BBC this weekend.
This is a curious sidelight on the growing “grey zone” confrontation with drones, now targeting the vital infrastructure and security assets of the UK and its allies. It is a prime example of one of the new “hybrid wars” now being aimed by Russia and its supporters at a range of Nato allies, especially those most actively supporting Ukraine.
The first warnings of potential hostile drone surveillance came from the Norwegian Navy and Intelligence services some three years ago. They warned of a flurry of drone activity over North Sea oilfields and terminals, and underwater communication cables. The Norwegians believed the drones had been launched from merchant ships working for the Kremlin security services.
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Since then, drones have been spotted operating over sensitive North Sea sites, over airfields across northern Europe, including the UK. Towards the end of last year, swarms of drones were sighted off the eastern seaboard of the United States, again surveilling seaports and terminals.
Within days of the US and UK permitting, last November, the Ukraine forces to use their deep-strike weapons, such as ATACMS and Storm Shadow missiles, to hit targets inside Russia, drones were active over UK and US bases in Britain and Germany.
The drones appeared after nightfall in late November over the bases at Lakenheath and Mildenhall in Suffolk and Feltwell in Norfolk. They were small, but of military grade according to one analyst. The use of the cover of darkness smacked of military planning and intent. Last month they were spotted at Ramsteain, the US military hub in Germany.
The drones are likely to be operated as part of the “hybrid” offensive, which includes surveillance and sabotage against undersea cables and energy pipes, believed to be orchestrated by the Main Directorate of Undersea Research, known as GUGI, a secret unit of the Russian Navy. GUGI deploys commando units of frogmen, manned and unmanned submarines and a flotilla of tugs, disguised trawlers and survey vessels.
Three tankers and freighters are suspected of ripping pipelines and communication cables in the past 18 months, the Newnew Polar Bear in 2023, and the Chinese bulk carrier Yi Peng 3 and Cook Islands registered Eagle S last year. The Eagle S was arrested by Finland’s coastguard, accused on cutting the main Estlink 2 cable under the Gulf of Finland connecting with Estonia.
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Drones have turned traditional frontline battle tactics on their head
The use of drones, for fair means and foul, has grown enormously. They have been playing a decisive role in open warfare in the Middle East, in Nagorno Karabakh in 2020, and since 2022 in Ukraine. Vladimir Putin recently boasted that Russia produced 140,000 drones of all types in 2023. In the first nine months of last year 5,600 copies of the Iran-designed Shahed 136 were built at a custom-built plant at Alabuga in Tatarstan, east of Moscow. It is believed the plant relies on the impressed labour of teenagers and young African women.
Ukraine is set to produce more drones this year than the Nato alliance put together. It is in a desperate arms race to keep ahead of the enemy in technology and tactics. Key elements are the use of personal small drones – or FPVs – and cheap unarmed decoy drones. Last year Russia produced 10,000 cut-price Gerbera drones, which carry no warhead but are designed to “spoof” or deceive air defences into wasteful expenditure of ammunition and effort.
Drones have turned traditional frontline battle tactics on their head. It means that almost every move out of position, in defence or attack, may be spotted and counterattacked within a few minutes. The drone makes the battlefield transparent. And this demands a revolutionary approach to how to fight, defend and win on the ground.
Drones also require a very different approach to homeland security and resilience, the protection of our civil communities and their vital support systems. This is not to say drones are all bad, or the Frankenstein’s killer robots of the future now upon us. They can be fun – the Army has just introduced drone racing to their sports schedules – and lifesavers. Heavy lift drones are used increasingly in mountain and offshore rescue, and lifting vital blood and vital medical supplies across difficult terrain.
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The hostile use of drones, frequently, deviously, and in great mass – as the Houthi Red Sea attacks show – is a prime example of a “Grey Rhino” threat, the large and obvious threat too often ignored by those who should know. Grey Rhinos are co-conspirators with Black Swans in the menagerie of risk metaphor animals.
The drone menace is a prime element in the hybrid war tactics now being practiced across dozens of conflicts. They are the Grey Rhinos of our time. None of us can afford to let this phenomenon to be promoted to the status of an even more dangerous animal in the threat menagerie – the Black Jellyfish, the creeping, insidious threat that most try to ignore altogether.
Robert Fox is defence editor
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