MYRTLE BEACH, S.C. (WBTW) — Satellite imagery and surface observations from NOAA buoy 41040 indicate that the tropical wave east of the Lesser Antilles does not have a well-defined circulation, and that the convection is not well organized, according to the National Hurricane Center.
However, these observations also suggest the possibility that a new center may be trying to form to the west or northwest of the advisory position. Until that is confirmed by either daylight satellite imagery or an upcoming hurricane hunter flight, the system will remain at potential tropical cyclone status. The initial intensity is a possibly conservative 25 knots. The initial motion is fast, to the west at 26 mph.
A midlevel ridge is forecast to remain in place to the north of the PTC 5 for the next 24 to 36 hours. It should more or less maintain the current heading during that period with some decrease in forward speed. After that, a midlatitude trough moving eastward from the eastern United States is forecast to create a large break in the subtropical ridge, with the system turning northwestward and northward into the break.
While the model guidance is generally in good agreement with this scenario, there is still uncertainty on where the predominant center will eventually form, and this will affect where the system might track with respect to the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico.
The new forecast track has only minor adjustments from the previous forecast. Based on the disturbance’s currently disorganized state and continued easterly shear, the intensity forecast during the first 36 hours has been nudged downward. However, the system is still expected to become a tropical storm (Ernesto is the next name on the list) near or over the Leeward Islands.
Environmental conditions become more favorable for development after 24 to 36 hours, and the intensity forecast shows significant strengthening during that time. This portion of the new intensity forecast is similar to the previous forecast.
We will continue to closely watch this system throughout the week for the turn to the north and its slow strengthening.
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