Palestinian factions signed a “national unity” deal on Tuesday, raising hope and doubt that rival movements can reconcile their ideological differences and bitter history to lobby for an end to Israel’s occupation, analysts say.
The deal was signed in the Chinese capital Beijing after three days of intensive talks that laid the groundwork for an interim “national reconciliation” government to assume control over post-war Gaza and advance the shared quest for self-determination. Yet, the breakthrough has generated scepticism since multiple previous attempts at reconciliation between Fatah and Hamas have failed.
“A dose of scepticism is warranted, but I’m hopeful this agreement will stick,” said Omar Rahman, an expert on Israel-Palestine for the Middle East Council on Global Affairs think tank in Doha, Qatar.
“There is pressure for this to succeed, given the context … in Gaza and the West Bank. I think all sides know this needs to happen,” said Rahman, referring to the urgency brought on by the war in Gaza and the uptick in settler violence and land confiscation in the occupied West Bank.
Since a Hamas-led attack on Israeli communities and military outposts on October 7, in which 1,139 people were killed and 251 taken captive, Israel has responded with a devastating onslaught on Gaza that may amount to genocide, according to UN experts.
Over the last nine months, Israel has killed more than 39,000 Palestinians and uprooted nearly all of Gaza’s 2.3 million people. The war in Gaza has dominated international headlines, enabling Israel to also quietly seize more Palestinian land in the occupied West Bank in 2024 than any other year in the past three decades.
As Israel has entrenched its occupation, the two major Palestinian factions Fatah and Hamas remained divided. The former controls most of the West Bank via the Palestinian Authority (PA) – an entity born out of the 1993 Oslo Accords, in which Fatah was promised Palestinian statehood in exchange for renouncing violence and recognising Israel.
In contrast, Hamas remained committed to armed struggle and has controlled Gaza since expelling Fatah in a brief civil war between the two sides in 2007.
Despite the bloody history, both sides joined 12 smaller factions to sign the Beijing deal that ultimately aims to create a Palestinian state on Israeli-occupied East Jerusalem, the wider West Bank and Gaza – land Israel captured in the 1967 Arab-Israeli war – according to a copy of the agreement that Al Jazeera obtained.
Will the deal hold?
Fatah and PA leader Mahmoud Abbas, known also as Abu Mazen, have undermined previous reconciliation deals with Hamas, said Tahani Mustafa, a Palestinian expert with the International Crisis Group (ICG).
She told Al Jazeera that Abbas – and his cohort of close confidantes – have not demonstrated a real political will to unify the Palestinian leadership to challenge Israel’s occupation.
Fatah has sole control over the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO), an entity that, in theory, represents Palestinians internationally, and fears losing its majority if Hamas and other factions are represented in the body, said Mustafa.
“If you add Hamas and say Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ), then Fatah no longer has a monopoly,” she told Al Jazeera.
Israel and the United States could also try to undermine the reconciliation agreement.
The former has refused to allow the PA or Hamas to assume control over Gaza in a post-war scenario and the latter has long called for Hamas to recognise Israel and renounce violence before being part of a Palestinian government.
In 2017, Hamas presented a new charter that accepted the formation of a Palestinian state along the 1967 borders. The move – in line with previous statements and moves made by Hamas – amounted to a de facto recognition of Israel.
“Hamas never [explicitly] recognised Israel’s right to exist because there was never pressure on Israel for it to do the same for Palestinians,” Mustafa told Al Jazeera.
Hugh Lovatt, an expert on Israel-Palestine for the European Council for Foreign Affairs, added that there is a clear likelihood that Israel will aim to derail this agreement by pressuring its Western allies to withhold funds from the PA.
“The PA – in its current configuration – can only survive through its close cooperation and funding support from the US and Europe,” he told Al Jazeera.
“But this isn’t just a question of the PA survival but the personal survival of key PA figures who … have very little interest in any deal that could undermine their own personal standing.”
Al Jazeera reached out to Nabil Abu Rudeineh, a spokesperson for the PA presidency, as well as Husam Zomlot who heads the PA’s mission in the United Kingdom, for comment. Neither responded to requests for comment before publication.
But the PA, for its part, has blamed Hamas for the collapse of previous unity deals due to its refusal to adhere to the terms of the Oslo Accords, such as formally recognising Israel and renouncing violence, Lovatt said.
“What we see Abbas say … is that we do want an agreement, but one that is based on international legitimacy,” he added.
Why does this deal matter?
While previous reconciliation agreements have fallen apart, Rahman said that it is essential for this one to succeed.
He believes winds are shifting regarding international opinion on Israel-Palestine, opening up an opportunity for a united Palestinian leadership to push for an end to the “genocide” in Gaza and Israel’s “annexionist push” in the West Bank.
An “advisory opinion” by the International Court of Justice (ICJ), also known as the World Court, recently classified Israel’s 57-year occupation of East Jerusalem, West Bank and Gaza as “illegal.” The court said that continued Israeli presence on occupied Palestinian territory including through the building and expanding of settlements is “in violation of international law”.
Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called the ruling “absurd“ and said that it cannot be illegal for Israelis to live “in their own communities in our ancestral home”.
“The situation is clearly dire and the Palestinians need some sort of unified leadership to rally the international community in the defence of Palestinians,” Rahman said.
Yet that unity does not have an endorsement — at least not yet — from the global actor most influential in shaping the direction of the war: the US.
US State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller commented on the deal at a news briefing Tuesday, saying, “There can’t be a role for a terrorist organisation.”
Hamas is a designated “terrorist” group by the US, Israel and the European Union, but many Palestinians view it as a legitimate resistance group.
Lovatt said that even if the PA is committed to implementing the agreement – by consulting Hamas and the other factions in decision-making – US pressure could sabotage Palestinian unity.
“It really could be the decisive factor,” he said. “The question is: Will [Abbas] remain committed, or backtrack in the face of international pressure?”
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