It only takes watching a few pitches to appreciate what makes Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo and Graham Ashcraft three of the most exciting young pitchers in baseball. Greene throws a harder fastball than any starting pitcher in the game. Lodolo’s breaking ball is one-of-a-kind. Ashcraft has the fastest cutter in baseball.
Likely sometime in the next year, current Reds pitching prospect Andrew Abbott will join that trio in the Reds’ big league starting rotation. Abbott is only 6 feet, 192 pounds. He’s not the hardest thrower, and his frame doesn’t give him the advantages that Lodolo has at 6-foot-6.
Abbott’s outlier traits are more difficult to spot, but the results have spoken for themselves already this season. Abbott, a 2021 second-round pick and arguably the top pitching prospect in the Reds’ organization, has started his Double-A season with 25 strikeouts in just 10 ⅔ innings.
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Abbott hasn’t allowed a run and has only let three runners reach base. He has struck out 25 of the 36 batters he has faced. He’s showing a distinct skill set that could make him a long-term answer in the Reds’ rotation behind Greene, Lodolo and Ashcraft.
“Andrew Abbott is the epitome of what all the old school guys want, but he does it in a new school fashion,” Chattanooga Lookouts pitching coach Brian Garman said. “He throws a lot of fastballs, throws a lot of strikes and works ahead in a lot of counts. And he’s using technology. He understands pitch sequences. He has this balance between the arts and the sciences of pitching and blends the old school with the new school.”
Abbott, 23, has been a fast riser through the Reds’ farm system. He opened last season in High-A with the Dayton Dragons and posted a 0.67 ERA across his first five appearances. The Reds moved him up to Double-A a bit too quickly, and he struggled at first at that higher level. Abbott recognized that he needed another breaking ball to get more swings and misses as well as a more consistent changeup.
He finished last season with 16 consecutive scoreless innings in Double-A. Somehow, Abbott has been even better this April at that level.
“When a pitcher is able to throw their best stuff every pitch of the game, the pitcher has the advantage,” Abbott said. “There’s an old saying that may not be true nowadays, but good pitching always beats good hitting. If I come after every hitter with my best stuff and put pitches in the zone, good things will happen.”
Abbott’s success starts with the location of his fastball. “I’m not a flameballer,” Abbott said. “I have to use every single tool that I have.” Over his last two starts, Abbott has used pinpoint command to take advantage of his fastball’s unique quality.
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Abbott’s fastball looks like it defies gravity and appears to rise out of his hand. There’s a metric called “vertical break” that captures the rare movement of Abbott’s fastball. It sits in the mid-90s, but he still constantly gets hitters to swing under it and whiff at the pitch.
“He throws it where he wants to throw it more often than not, and there aren’t a lot of guys who can do that,” Garman said. “Also, his fastball doesn’t fall at the same rate that a lot of fastballs fall. It holds its plane longer, which produces a flatter approach angle. He’s able to throw the fastball above the barrel.”
Abbott is mixing that fastball well with a new sweeping slider that darts across the strike zone. He added the pitch late last season, and it’s already become one of his strengths.
Abbott used to just throw a curveball, but now he has two different breaking balls that he can use to keep hitters guessing.
His ability to win the chess match against the batter is Abbott’s biggest strength.
“He knows who he is,” Garman said. “He knows what he has to do. Andrew has the skill and the ability to go out and actually make a plan happen, which makes it really fun to watch.”
Abbott’s command and his consistency, two qualities that usually take a while for a pitcher to develop, give him an edge. When he’s not pitching, he studies hitters. Recently, he noticed how a few players on the opposing team were timing up fastballs in certain counts. Abbott made the mental note to not throw those hitters fastballs in specific situations.
Abbott has also developed the skill of adjusting his game plan on the fly. He blows Garman away with the depth of his analysis during their brief conversations between the innings of Abbott’s starts. Abbott will bring up something he saw from different hitters in different at-bats and come up with an even better plan of attack for later in the game.
“I go off of feel,” Abbott said. “I’ve been feeling fantastic and rolling like that. I don’t try to do too much thinking and getting in my own head. That makes you lose track of what’s right in front of you.”
Abbott is still working on his changeup, and he says he wants to make that a more consistent piece of his game plan against right-handed hitters. When his changeup clicks, Abbott sees the opportunity to “neutralize right-handed hitters” and set up even more fastballs for swings and misses.
He’s still only 31 starts into his minor league career. But Abbott is showing the awareness, approach and mentality that could make him a big piece of the Reds’ long-term core.
“I’ve had the privilege of coaching him for nine weeks of his professional career, and every one has been impressive,” Garman said. “What he’s doing now is exceptional, but I also kind of expected it. I just thought that he would do this.”
This article originally appeared on Cincinnati Enquirer: Inside Reds pitching prospect Andrew Abbott’s incredible start to 2023
