Russia has lost more than 70,000 troops in the past two months, British military intelligence said on Friday.
The update by the Ministry of Defence added that the heavy losses would likely continue as Russia looked to make gains across the front lines in Ukraine.
“The average daily Russian casualties (killed and wounded) in Ukraine, throughout May and June 2024, increased to conflict highs of 1,262 and 1,163 respectively,” the MoD wrote.
“In total, Russia likely lost (killed and wounded) in excess of 70,000 personnel over the past two months.”
Russia has made grinding gains in eastern Ukraine over the past months as Kyiv’s armed forces try to overcome crippling shortages in manpower and ammunition.
Moscow launched a new front in May with a cross-border offensive into Ukraine’s north-eastern Kharkiv region.
A senior Nato official described the losses as “astronomical” during a briefing on the fringes of the alliance’s summit in Washington DC this week.
“Russia likely suffered losses of almost 1,000 people a day in May, which is quite an astronomical figure,” the source said.
Though the offensive was short-lived, it stretched Ukrainian resources, enabling Russia to make further gains on their priority target of the nearby Donetsk region. However, it stretched Russian resources also, said the MoD.
“The uptick in losses reflects Russia’s opening of the new front in the Kharkiv region, while maintaining the same rate of offensive operations along the remainder of the front,” its update said.
“Although this new approach has increased the pressure on the front line, an effective Ukrainian defence and a lack of Russian training reduces Russia’s ability to stretch and exploit any tactical successes, despite attempting to stretch the front line further.”
The update added: “Russia’s casualty rate will likely continue to average above 1,000 a day over the next two months as Russia continues to try to overcome Ukrainian positions with mass.”
Western analysts have said Russia’s use of small assault units have prevented them from making substantial gains or exploiting any breakthroughs in Ukraine’s defensive lines.
Moscow’s forces have repeatedly made probing attacks with between 10 to 15 unmounted infantry troops, to avoid the heavy losses experienced with more heavily mechanised assaults.
“These tactics can yield incremental gains, but they are poorly suited to achieving operationally significant breakthroughs. Larger assaults have proven costly to Russian forces, which cannot afford sustained equipment losses of the kind seen earlier in Avdiivka,” Michael Kofman, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment, said.
Following a recent field research trip to the country, Mr Kofman said that Ukraine faces tough months ahead despite the improving battlefield situation
He said: “Ukraine faces difficult months of fighting ahead, but the situation at the front is better than it was this spring.
“Ukraine’s manpower, fortifications, and ammunition situation is steadily improving. Russian forces are advancing in Donetsk, and likely to make further gains, but they have not been able to exploit the Kharkiv offensive into a major breakthrough.”
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