There is no room for Vladimir Putin to back down.
He’s now locked into a narrative and an evolving ideology that gives him no option but to double down when it comes to his disastrous war in Ukraine.
The conflict has been sold to his people as an existential war of survival for the nation.
It means he will raise the stakes every time the West escalates its response to his escalation.
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We are at another dangerous cycle in a conflict that has now raged for more than 1,000 days.
Putin’s latest threat is a declaration that the US is risking nuclear war with the expansion of its military aid.
His message is simple: to frighten and deter, and break the resolve of Ukraine’s allies.
The Russian leader is increasingly characterising the war as a “global conflict” hinting at strikes at Western countries if they continue their support for Kyiv.
His bellicose posture comes after the West permitted its supplies of long-range weapons to be used to strike deep inside Russia.
The move is not a game-changer but it shifts the dynamic of the war and gives Zelenskyy’s beleaguered nation hope at a time when it’s taking a battering.
But President Putin’s tough words have also been followed by action.
He’s confirmed the use of a new intermediate range missile, that has nuclear capabilities, in Ukraine.
For Moscow, this was an unavoidable reaction to what the Kremlin casts as “Western aggression”.
As well as causing destruction in Ukraine the technology sends the message that, chillingly, Western Europe is also well within reach.
The implication is being made clear that a broader conflict may not be far away if the West does not change its policy.
This has also been underlined by recent changes to Russia’s nuclear doctrine, further complicating the situation.
By lowering the threshold for nuclear weapon use, if Russia is attacked by a non-nuclear state supported by a nuclear power (such as the US), the Kremlin is attempting to keep Western leaders on edge.
It’s also an attempt to communicate directly to their electorates about the dangers involved in unbridled support for Ukraine.
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Although many analysts are sceptical Russia would use a nuclear weapon in Ukraine, Putin continues to make clear it is not impossible.
But the prospect of miscalculation or accident remains high.
And certainly the Kremlin is also hoping President Putin’s perceived unpredictability will in itself be a powerful weapon against his foes.
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