Snow in Florida? Here's what Jacksonville meteorologists say about

The new year is here, and that generally means colder temperatures — even in Jacksonville as many residents can attest.

So much so that there has been a lot of chatter online about an arctic blast of cold air and the possibility of snow in Florida around Jan. 10.

Is winter precipitation just a rumor, or could it really happen? First Coast News meteorologists have the answers.

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What would need to happen for snow?

You’d need atmospheric ingredients lining up at the perfect time for this to happen.

First, you need freezing air. The First Coast News Weather Team is growing more confident on a big blast of cold air. In fact, some models are showing temperatures around 20 degrees colder than normal, and that would mean the freezing temperature criteria would be reached. This isn’t guaranteed, though, and we will still have to wait and see just how cold it will get.

Now for the precipitation. You need a low pressure system that will bring precipitation into the already freezing airmass. The GFS model does bring a clipper system out of the Gulf of Mexico and surges moisture toward us. Will this line up with the cold air? Sometimes, the model shows a wintery mix in north Florida. Other times, it has the snow only reaching as far south as Atlanta. Big swings like this are expected run-to-run this far out from a system.

And the timing isn’t certain, either. While the GFS model has possible winter weather approaching Jan. 9 and 10, the ECMWF has it about two days behind.

So is there a chance of snow?

All of this is to say there is a lot of uncertainty in the forecast. Is there a chance? Yes, but a low chance, as a lot of things would have to line up perfectly for this to happen. You know the First Coast’s Most Accurate Weather Team will be watching it closely and keeping you updated.

When was the last time Jacksonville had snow?

On Dec. 23, 1989, a freak snowstorm dropped nearly 2 inches of snow across Jacksonville and Northeast Florida, bringing the city to halt just before Christmas.

Jacksonville streets and bridges began to ice over on Dec. 22, and by the next day it started to snow, shutting down much of the city.

It was the largest snowstorm in history for the Southeastern U.S. Coast.

See photos from the 1989 snowstorm in Jacksonville

What is the weather forecast for Jacksonville?

THURSDAY-FRIDAY: High temperatures continue to drop to either side of 60 degrees. For the TaxSlayer Gator Bowl, temperatures will be dropping out of the 50s and into the 40s.

WEEKEND: Expect a cold weekend, with highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s.

LONG RANGE: Keeping in mind that we put less weight and lower confidence in certain longer-range computer modeling, we need to keep an eye our for the potential for a polar air outbreak over the deep south in the forecast beyond the seven-day. Some models along with guidance from the Climate Prediction Center suggest temperatures 10 to 15 degrees (or more in some extreme cases) below normal for our area. This would apply to and impact the days approaching the weekend of Jan. 10. Obviously that date is beyond our typical seven-day forecast range, so we’ll temper too much concern of hard freeze nights/mornings until we closer to that period. However, it’s something we are watching and will be talking about on air and online in our forecasting.

See more vintage photos of snow in Jacksonville

This story was first reported on First Coast News. Times-Union staff contributed to this report.

This article originally appeared on Florida Times-Union: Jacksonville meteorologists provide forecast about incoming cold wave

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Snow in Florida? Here’s what Jacksonville meteorologists say about incoming cold wave