Syria war to have ‘massive’ effect on Lebanon: US envoy Hochstein

The top Biden diplomat said a weakened Syrian government will make it difficult for Iran to transfer weapons to Hezbollah.

Doha, Qatar – The weakening of Syria’s government with the recent gains made by the opposition forces is going to have “massive implications” in neighbouring Lebanon, according to US envoy Amos Hochstein.

Speaking at the Doha Forum on Saturday, the diplomat said Iran would find it difficult to transfer weapons to the Lebanese armed group, Hezbollah.

A rebel alliance led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) launched its lightning offensive against Bashar al-Assad’s government on November 27 – a day after the ceasefire Hochstein helped broker between Israel and Hezbollah took hold.

The Syrian government has faced unprecedented strategic losses since then – losing four cities in a swift time span.

“I think what’s happened in Syria, which of course, happened the day after the ceasefire started, is now creating a new weakness for Hezbollah,” Hochstein said at the forum in Qatar’s capital bringing together world leaders, senior diplomats, and experts in international relations.

“It’s going to make it very difficult for Iran, who’s pulling out of Syria, to some degree, being able to transfer weapons in.”

The US official said he did not anticipate that a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah would bring about a “weakening” of Syria’s “regime”.

The truce agreement, however, did include controlling “the flow of weaponry coming in from Syria”, with protection of the Syria-Lebanon border the “linchpin” determining the success of the ceasefire, Hochstein said.

Meanwhile, Hezbollah has been battered by Israel’s attacks, putting into question whether it can continue to fight in support of al-Assad’s government, as it has for more than 10 years, said the diplomat.

“Lebanon has internalised the weakness of Hezbollah on the one hand, [and] on the other hand, [Hezbollah’s ability] to fight Israel or to support the Assad regime has … diminished,” said Hochstein.

Hochstein hails fragile ceasefire

Hochstein also hailed Lebanon’s shaky truce, nearly two weeks old, stating that Israel’s work to “completely” pull out of Lebanon is “a great indicator” of its success.

When asked about dozens of Israeli attacks on Lebanon resulting in the death of Lebanese civilians since the ceasefire went into effect, he told Al Jazeera there were “violations on both sides”.

“Hezbollah must move to the north without their weapons,” Hochstein said, adding that this point is key to the ceasefire holding firm.

“I think Israel is clear that it will monitor these violations and as the [monitoring] mechanism takes hold, we’ll see – my hope is – that we’ll see a lot less activity, to zero activity.”