A simple look at a box score or a study of fantasy football categories doesn’t always tell the whole story of how a player is performing. Dalton Del Don attempts to identify misleading numbers that are worth a closer look.
Yes … The Numbers Do Lie.
Matthew Stafford’s QB25 rank is a lie
Stafford has averaged nearly as many fantasy points (14.3) this season as Daniel Jones (14.2), who’s been moved possibly to QB4 on New York’s depth chart. But Stafford’s fantasy rank is misleading, as he’s a weekly top-12 QB when the Rams are healthy.
Stafford has averaged 296.4 passing yards, 2.2 TDs and 19.0 fantasy points (~QB7) in games with Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua this season; he’s averaged 215.0 passing yards, 0.4 TDs and 8.9 fantasy points (~QB40) without them (h/t FTN). And Nacua was ejected from one of those games early.
Stafford is also due for touchdown regression. He ranks sixth in red-zone passes and leads the league in end-zone targets (33) but is tied for 12th in TD passes. Stafford is the QB13 in expected fantasy points despite being the only quarterback in the league without a single scramble. The Rams have the fourth-highest neutral pass rate over the last month and have passed on 63% of their red-zone plays since Kupp and Nacua returned.
Unfortunately, difficult matchups will remain a hurdle. After having the league’s fifth-hardest QB schedule up until now, L.A. has the sixth-toughest rest of season. The Rams get an especially tough matchup this week against an Eagles defense leading the NFL in EPA/play over the last six weeks while shutting down opposing passing attacks.
Still, Stafford looks like a top-12 QB down the stretch if Kupp and Nacua can stay healthy.
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Jonathan Taylor’s RB15 rank is a lie
Taylor has averaged 10.3 (half-PPR) fantasy points (RB30) in two games with Joe Flacco this season, but he’s averaged 15.7 fpg (RB8) while scoring all five of his touchdowns in six games with Anthony Richardson. AR made a triumphant return last week, and he’ll remain Indianapolis’ starter over the rest of the season, health permitting. Taylor has handled 100% of the Colts’ RB rush attempts in three of the last four games, and he’s due for touchdown regression; Taylor has the third most carries (13) inside the 5-yard line (despite missing three games), but he’s tied for 15th in rushing scores.
Taylor gets a tough matchup this week against a Lions’ defense that ranks second in EPA/play, but his schedule eases up afterward. Indy’s offense has experienced far more success (especially rushing and on early downs) with Richardson starting this season, so Taylor will benefit from the move back to the young quarterback.
Ladd McConkey’s WR29 rank is a lie
McConkey ranks No. 11 out of 120 pass catchers in ESPN’s Receiver Score, and he’s 13th in the league in first downs per route run. The Chargers have posted a positive DBOE in four of six games since their bye, and Justin Herbert is playing fantastic. While Joshua Palmer has failed to step up, McConkey saw a career-high nine targets last week and was among the league leaders in air yards. He gets a prime matchup this week against the league’s top pass-funnel defense; the Ravens rank 28th in EPA/dropback but second in EPA/rush.
After matchups filled with low-scoring games and the league’s fourth-toughest WR schedule, the Chargers are set to play numerous shootouts and have the sixth-easiest WR schedule moving forward. More red-zone targets would be preferable, but McConkey is legit, and more volume down the stretch will lead to bigger fantasy production.
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Marvin Harrison Jr.’s WR35 rank is a lie
Harrison Jr. hasn’t been a bust, but he’s been a disappointment while averaging fewer fantasy points than Quentin Johnston. Harrison Jr. started to finally run more crossing routes before Arizona’s bye, and hopefully, MHJ gets the proverbial rookie bump coming out of it. Harrison Jr. ranks seventh in air yards share (41.1%) and eighth in end-zone targets — tied with Ja’Marr Chase and CeeDee Lamb.
Harrison Jr. has faced the league’s fifth-toughest WR schedule up until now (his QB has faced the toughest), but the rookie wideout gets the fourth easiest moving forward. Harrison Jr. has produced the second most fantasy points per route run against press this season, and he has four remaining matchups against defenses that use that coverage heavily (including this week versus the Seahawks).
Kyler Murray got 9.1 YPA over his last three games before Arizona’s bye against three top pass defenses, so the Cardinals’ offense could score a bunch of points down the stretch. Harrison Jr.’s role should continue to rise just like his fantasy rank.
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