The first electoral heat check for the second Trump era

Two under-the-radar special elections in northern Virginia on Tuesday could offer crucial clues about the durability of GOP gains with communities of color — and potentially upend Democrats’ control of the state’s legislature.

Democrats should cruise to victory in both Loudoun County-based seats, given their makeup. But any upsets could have drastic consequences because Democrats have only minuscule majorities in each chamber. And regardless of who wins, the results will be closely parsed for tea leaves about the political environment in the second Trump era.

Both the state House and Senate seats in question have a large population of Asian-American voters, a demographic where President-elect Donald Trump made inroads in 2024. Another intriguing layer: the Sunday night snow storm that blanketed the DMV, a region notoriously bad at managing inclement weather.

The stakes: Both special elections were set into motion by former Rep. Jennifer Wexton’s (D-Va.) retirement from the 10th District. Democrat Suhas Subramanyam won the race to replace her, leaving his state Senate district open. That’s vacancy No. 1. Then state Del. Kannan Srinivasan, also a Democrat, decided to try for that Senate seat. He resigned his state House district, creating vacancy No. 2.

Special elections in northern Virginia in the dead of winter normally wouldn’t draw much notice. But the 2023 legislative elections in the commonwealth left Democrats with a thin grip on power. A GOP flip in either race would bring that chamber to an even split. That would give Republicans control of the state Senate because Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears can break ties. And an even state House would force both parties into a power-sharing arrangement.

In the state Senate race, Srinivasan greatly outraised his Republican opponent Tumay Harding. In the state House contest, Democrat JJ Singh easily bested Republican Ram Venkatachalam’s fundraising.

The seats heavily favor Democrats. Harris won the House and Senate district with 59 percent of the vote, per the nonpartisan Virginia Public Access Project. But Republicans have shown some interest in the contests; GOP Gov. Glenn Youngkin rallied last weekend for both candidates. And how the weather affects turnout — it continued to snow through Monday — could be a real wild card.

A third special election is also set for Tuesday in a district outside of Richmond to fill the state Senate spot of Rep. John McGuire (R-Va.). But Republicans are expected to easily hold that seat.

The tea leaves: Some Democrats have cast the specials as a way to measure the party’s resistance in the second Trump era — which has been dampened by the exhaustion of the rank-and-file. But the results will be telling beyond that.

Trump gained ground among non-white voters across the country and northern Virginia was no exception. President Joe Biden won Loudoun County by 25 points in 2020, but Vice President Kamala Harris won by just 16 points four years later. A similar shift happened at the congressional level: Biden won Virginia’s 10th District, which is anchored in Loudoun County, by 19 points in 2020. Harris carried it by 8 points four years later.

The state House district is 43 percent Asian while the Senate district is 30 percent, per VPAP. If the Republicans lose but overperform with minority voters in the district, it could be a sign that the rightward shift of Loudoun County — which in part helped fuel Youngkin’s 2021 gubernatorial win — is driven by an embrace of GOP politics and not just Trump himself. An underperformance would be a relief to Democrats, who are praying that Trump’s newfound popularity with Black, Asian and Latino voters was driven by his charisma and not a broader dissatisfaction with Democratic policies.

And more immediately, both parties will be poring over the results Tuesday night for insight ahead of November’s off-year elections in Virginia. Youngkin is term-limited, and the race to replace him is expected to be hotly contested, with Earle-Sears and former Democratic Rep. Abigail Spanberger as the leading contenders. The entire state House will be on the ballot as well.

Of course, typical caveats apply. It’s dangerous to draw too many conclusions from low-turnout special elections held in the aftermath of a major snow storm. But these are the first notable electoral pulse checks since Trump romped to victory last November.

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