There was a time, not very long ago, when even Sir Keir Starmer’s harshest critics privately admitted he had done a brilliant job of purging the far Left from the Labour Party, and in doing so making Labour electable again.
His ruthlessness in expelling his predecessor, Jeremy Corbyn, and anyone with a whiff of anti-Semitism about them showed the Tories they had underestimated him, and they paid the price at the ballot box last July.
Recent events, though, have revealed that many figures on the Left of the Labour Party were simply biding their time, like bears in hibernation, and have returned above ground ready to fight their cause afresh.
Dozens have already shown their disapproval of the Starmer regime by refusing to vote with the Government on cutting winter fuel payments and keeping the two-child cap on Child Benefit. This week, Brian Leishman, the newly elected Labour MP for the Scottish seat of Alloa and Grangemouth, renewed calls for a wealth tax on Britain’s richest households, reinforcing a demand made in an open letter signed by 30 MPs and peers before last year’s Budget.
The Commons rebellions against the Prime Minister could be dwarfed next week if, as expected, the SNP forces a vote on compensation for the so-called Waspi women.
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Further mutinies are in the pipeline over a third Heathrow runway, climate policies and, potentially, benefit cuts, and the issue of whether Sir Keir could be ousted before the next election is the subject of whispered conversations in Labour circles.
Starmer loyalists dismiss such talk as wishful thinking by a handful of fringe players. Sir Keir, let’s not forget, has a working majority of 163, meaning he is unlikely to lose a vote in Parliament between now and the next general election.
Winning votes on the floor of the House will not, though, disguise divisions within any party (just ask the Tories), and there are growing signs that Sir Keir might face an uprising on the Left, coupled with growing disillusionment among moderate MPs, that could destabilise his premiership.
Changing mood
“There is always huge loyalty towards a leader at the beginning,” says one veteran Labour MP, “but I have never seen the mood change so quickly in all my years in politics. It’s extraordinary. People are looking at each other and saying, ‘Why are we doing this?’”
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Another figure on the Left of the party adds: “Starmer got Labour into government, but the political capital is already getting exhausted. Almost no one in the Labour Party will tell you they support keeping the two-child cap on child benefit, for example. The winter fuel payment cut wasn’t even in the manifesto. MPs are going to their constituencies and being tackled by voters, and they don’t have any answers for them, because they are having to defend policies they don’t agree with.”
This may not come as a revelation to anyone who follows politics reasonably closely, but it represents an opportunity for the Left to woo newly elected Labour MPs – of whom there are 243 – by telling them they cannot afford not to rebel against the Government.
As one senior activist on the Left put it: “At the moment, there are a lot of disaffected MPs who are not rebelling because of the fear of having the whip removed, but as time goes on more and more people will feel that the risk of not speaking out is greater than the risk of losing the whip.
“They will think that they are going to lose their seats anyway, so they might as well speak out and show to their constituents that they do not support some of these unpopular policies.
“I don’t think we have got there yet, but let’s see what happens if there is a vote on the Waspi women, for example.”
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The Women Against State Pension Inequality (Waspi) argue that they were not sufficiently informed about changes to the state pension age and suffered financially as a result. They were led to believe by Labour that they would receive compensation if Labour got into power.
But in December the Government backtracked on its promises to the 3.8 million women claiming compensation, saying it could not afford to help them.
Neil Duncan-Jordan, the Labour MP for Poole, who entered Parliament last year, wrote a lengthy article for the Left-wing Labour Outlook website saying that “even those most loyal of Labour MPs were dumbfounded” by a decision that “seriously undermines the public’s trust in politicians”. He added: “There is a sense with some MPs that this issue is the last straw.”
The SNP has grabbed the opportunity to drive a wedge between Sir Keir and his backbenchers by announcing they will present a Bill in Parliament next week that would ensure the Waspi women are compensated. Although it would face almost certain defeat if the Speaker allowed it to go to a vote, the SNP is laying a trap for Labour MPs, each of whom will have to weigh the consequences of publicly voting against compensation for Waspi women, something their opponents will gleefully point out to the electorate from now until 2029.
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One Labour MP who is a member of the Left-wing Socialist Campaign Group, seven of whom have had the whip suspended by Sir Keir, says: “Every single Labour MP will have met Waspi women in their constituencies when they were running for Parliament, and they are mortified that we are not doing anything for them now, particularly if the Scottish Parliament does something for them. MPs have built relationships with these people, telling them we would help them when we got into power, and now they are having to say to them we are not doing anything for you.”
Growing number of Commons rebels
The consequence of such broken promises, the MP says, is that: “The Socialist Campaign Group is growing, it’s a widening group. Most MPs voted for policies like keeping the two-child benefit cap, but they are now being held to account in their constituencies and they are having to defend things that are hugely unpopular.
“It will only grow further, because we hear the word ‘ruthless’ being used in terms of benefit claimants, and we seem to be back to doom and gloom like we were last year.”
While a large section of the public believe they were lied to by Labour before the general election (particularly over taxes on working people), the Left feel Sir Keir lied to them to get elected as leader. He made 10 pledges during the leadership contest in 2020, including hiking income tax and nationalising utilities, then ditched almost all of them once he got the job. He also thanked his “friend” Jeremy Corbyn, his predecessor, before kicking him out of the Party.
Researchers at Royal Holloway, University of London who studied the politics of 614 current MPs found that Sir Keir was to the Right of the average Labour MP, even in a Parliament where Labour overall has shifted to the Right. With an average majority of more than 8,500 votes, the party’s most Left-wing MPs also have the safest seats, according to the research.
Before we get too carried away, it is worth reminding ourselves of the numbers at play here.
In July, almost 50 of Labour’s 402 MPs failed to vote with the Government in a vote on the two-child benefit cap, most of whom did not record a vote. Some of those MPs actively abstained, while others may have been unable to vote for other reasons, such as ill health.
The seven MPs who voted to scrap the cap, rather than abstaining, were stripped of the Labour whip as punishment. They included John McDonnell, the former shadow chancellor, and former Labour leadership candidate Rebecca Long-Bailey (nevertheless the Government’s child poverty taskforce is currently reviewing the policy after pressure from the Left).
Then, in September, 53 Labour MPs failed to vote for the Government’s winter fuel cut, a similar number to the 56 Labour MPs who backed an SNP motion calling for a ceasefire in Gaza in 2023, defying the Labour whip on the vote.
There are fewer than 30 signed-up members of the Socialist Campaign Group (SCG), but the consistent number of MPs failing to do as they are told in votes suggests that the official membership of the SCG underestimates the number of rebellious MPs in Labour’s ranks.
Starmer loyalists shrug this off as a fringe that cannot damage the leadership.
One moderate who has been active in Westminster for decades says: “I don’t think there is anything to suggest the Left are broadening their support. While there is no doubt that there are certainly some of the newly elected members who are finding being in Government more difficult than they thought it would be, I’m not detecting anything to suggest that is pushing them towards the Left.
“There is still a lot of good will towards the leadership and an understanding that it’s going to take time before some of the benefits come through, and also recognition that despite the financial constraints this is not Blair Mark II in terms of a government. There is legislation going through that Blair would never have supported, like employment rights, which is actually quite radical, which is why people who are total rejectionists are pretty isolated. I don’t think people in No 10 are losing much sleep over it, and I genuinely don’t think alarm bells are ringing.”
Maybe not yet. But what happens in Parliament is only part of the story.
Grassroots and unions in revolt
There is growing nervousness in Labour circles about polls that show Reform UK ahead of Labour in Westminster voting intention, with Labour coming third in one recent poll. Sir Keir’s personal approval rating has plunged to –34 points, worse than any recent prime minister at a similar stage, while the Government itself has an approval rating of –49 points.
Opinion polls are easily dismissed this far away from an election, but in May there will be a real ballot in the form of the local elections, which will provide a more meaningful – and consequential – test of Labour’s stewardship of the country.
Ominously, earlier this month Labour lost overall control of Broxtowe Borough Council in Nottinghamshire, not because of a by-election but because 20 Labour councillors resigned the whip because the Party has “abandoned traditional Labour values”.
One councillor, Milan Radulovic, a Labour member for 42 years, said the Party had become “nothing short of a dictatorship” and that he and other councillors could not stand behind the winter fuel payment cut, the increased £3 bus fare cap or plans to scrap two-tier county and district councils. Nor was this unique: in November Labour lost control of Newcastle City Council after six councillors quit the Party citing similar reasons to the Broxtowe rebels, and earlier this month it lost overall control of Dover District Council following two resignations.
Unsurprisingly, there is concern about what might happen at the local elections, when Reform is tipped to make big gains that would put pressure on Sir Keir.
Then, as ever with Labour, there is the question of what the unions think.
Sharon Graham, the general secretary of the country’s second-largest union, Unite, has already accused the Party of “picking the pockets of pensioners” while refusing to impose a wealth tax on the top 1 per cent of earners, while the third-largest union, the GMB, is opposed to ending new oil and gas licences in the North Sea, saying it puts 30,000 jobs at risk.
Labour is less reliant on union funding than it used to be, having expanded its donor base, but the unions still have the power to make life painful for Sir Keir.
Having awarded enormous pay rises to train drivers, Labour has created an expectation among unionised workers that a money bomb will explode over their heads, but the dire public finances mean there is a real possibility that public sector wages will stagnate over the next two to three years. What then? Already there is talk of industrial action when we get to 2026-27, which would further undermine Sir Keir’s authority as well as those keenly-followed poll ratings.
Talk of watering down some of the employment rights reforms championed by Angela Rayner, the Deputy Prime Minister, after lobbying from business leaders is already being spoken of as a “betrayal” in the making. There are also reports that Rachel Reeves, the Chancellor, will water down her tax raid on non-doms after discovering the real-world consequences of punishing wealth creators.
PM with zero ideas
“There are now question marks over whether Starmer even makes it to the next election, which is remarkable,” said one influential activist from the Left of the Party.
“At the moment, the Starmer Government is a catastrophe – and you can see that through any indicator you care to look at.
“The main problem is they have zero ideas. There is no project to sell to the country, and Reform are being allowed to form the debate as a result.”
A Labour MP agrees, saying: “He doesn’t seem to have a core set of views at all; he even told me that once himself.
“You need a story about what happened to Britain in the past, what is happening now and where we want to be in the future, but we don’t have that and we are dealing with things on an ad hoc basis. The whole thing doesn’t inspire much confidence.”
The MP said that putting VAT on private school fees “felt like throwing a bone to the Left, as I would be surprised if Starmer really believes in it deep down inside”, but it has done little to win over those Left-wing MPs and has made him look vindictive to those middle-class voters who were prepared to give him a chance.
It is Sir Keir’s lack of a coherent political philosophy that is making him so vulnerable to attacks orchestrated by the Left.
He wants to lead the most environmentally friendly government there has been, putting Ed Miliband in charge of net zero and green economic growth, yet Reeves is expected to use a speech next week to back a third runway at Heathrow Airport and allow the expansion of Gatwick and Luton airports, prompting John McDonnell to warn of “the greatest single environmental campaign this country has seen”.
Sir Keir promised to boost public finances by making Britain the fastest-growing G7 country for per-capita GDP, yet he allowed Reeves to kill off growth by hiking taxes on employment.
He said “those with the broadest shoulders” should bear the heaviest tax burden but targeted pensioners by taking away their winter fuel allowance.
As for discipline, which became Sir Keir’s hallmark in the run-up to the election, no Labour Party line now seems to remain intact. When Sir Keir said there would be no statutory inquiry into grooming gangs (an issue that four in 10 people think was covered up by the authorities), Dan Carden, a member of the Socialist Campaign Group until he left the caucus last year, broke ranks and said “the public call for justice must be heeded”. He was followed by Rochdale MP Paul Waugh, a 2024 entrant to Parliament, who said he backed an inquiry if it was what the victims wanted. Labour’s Prince Across the Water Andy Burnham, the Mayor of Greater Manchester, backed a “limited” national inquiry.
Referee who lost control of the match
Sir Keir’s crackdown on the far Left was already showing signs of weakening even before the election. Diane Abbott was allowed to stand as a Labour candidate after Sir Keir backed down from banning her over comments she made about race. She has used her platform as Mother of the House (the longest-serving female MP) to say Sir Keir “has no feel for politics” and cannot understand the plight of the Waspi women because “he’s on his big fat DPP pension”.
What will he do if more rebels vote against the Government, as seems likely? The seven MPs who had the whip removed over the child benefit cap vote were supposed to have their suspensions reviewed last Thursday, but have so far heard nothing. If Sir Keir pursues a zero tolerance approach, he might have to red card dozens of his own MPs, like a referee who has lost control of a football match.
The Left believe their time will come again. They never tire of citing the fact that three million more people voted for Jeremy Corbyn in 2017 than voted for Sir Keir in 2024 (and even in 2019 Corbyn got more votes than him). Sir Keir’s mandate to govern comes from just 33.7 per cent of those who bothered to vote last year, compared with the 40 per cent share achieved by Corbyn, only the second Labour leader since Harold Wilson in 1970 to get 40 per cent or more of the popular vote.
The rise of Reform UK could help Labour by splitting the Right-wing vote at the next election, or it could ensure that a Right-wing party – or parties – seizes power. Whether or not Sir Keir will be the one fighting them is by no means certain.
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