The theories on what caused Bayesian superyacht to sink so quickly

Divers searching the wreck of the luxury British yacht that sank off the coast of Sicily following an intense storm have found the bodies of two of the six passengers who were missing.

Technology tycoon Mike Lynch and his 18-year-old daughter Hannah were among those on board the Bayesian, a British flagged superyacht, when it sank off the port of Porticello, near Palermo, Sicily, just before 5am on Monday. The others missing are Morgan Stanley International bank chairman Jonathan Bloomer; his wife, Judy Bloomer; Clifford Chance lawyer Chris Morvillo and his wife, Neda Morvillo.

The two bodies recovered on Wednesday have not been identified yet. A body recovered at the scene of the sinking on Monday was that of Canadian-Antiguan national Recaldo Thomas, who was working as a chef on the Bayesian.

The Italian Coastguard has not ruled out the possibility that the missing may still be alive, with experts speculating air pockets could have formed as the yacht sank. But Vincenzo Zagarola of the Italian Coastguard said the six missing tourists were feared dead.

The Bayesian was moored around half a mile off the coast of Porticello when it sank as the area was hit by a storm, but it remains unclear what causes the 56 mretre long vessel to sink within a matter of minutes

Here are some of theories discussed so far looking at what could have happened to cause the Bayesian to sink.

Hatch or windows were left open

There has been some speculation in media reports that the yacht sank because of a large hatch or windows being left open. Structural engineer Filippo Mattioni pointed to the possibility of “an open hatch” letting in water.

Yachting experts have suggested that the hatches could have broken or smashed during the waterspout, or were left open due to the hot weather, which could have allowed the Bayesian to fill with water quickly and sink. Andrea Ratti, a nautical design professor at Milan Polytechnic university, said a boat the size of the Bayesian could only sink so rapidly by taking in a huge amount of water.

He said that “one can make plausible assumptions that leave room for doubt” about what happened, suggesting that one or more portholes, windows or other openings may have been broken or smashed open by the waterspout, letting in water.

However, an industry expert dismissed the open hatch theory, telling Reuters that it should have taken hours for the Bayesian to fill up with enough water to sink it.

Fire department diver Marco Tilotta also told Il Messaggero daily the wreck was “apparently intact”, with “no gashes, no signs of impact”. However, only one half of the hull is visible to divers.

Was the retractable keel used?

The Bayesian was built with a retractable keel – a structure that lies under the hull that helps stabilise boats and acts as a counterweight to the mast. Both Ratti and Mattioni have suggested that if the yacht had been anchored with the keel up, it would have reduced its depth under water from around 10m to 4m – making the vessel less stable.

Ratti said the boat might have started oscillating wildly, “like a pendulum” in strong winds. This would have put exceptional strain on the mast and potentially led to it breaking.

However, he conceded that “this by itself is not enough to justify the sinking”. Investigators have so far not said whether the retractable keel had been used.

The yacht’s mammoth mast

Perini Navi, an Italian luxury yacht maker who built the Bayesian, said the vessel featured the world’s tallest aluminum mast, measuring 72m.

American entrepreneur Scott Painter – who took over Mike Lynch’s Autonomy brand – told MailOnline that he believes the Bayesian may have been more vulnerable to capsizing in bad weather because of the height of its mast.

He said: “That could certainly contribute to a capsize as it would destabilise the yacht. And if it were to lean over too far, it could absolutely capsize the yacht.”

Sam Jefferson, editor of Sailing Today, told The Telegraph: “She has a very tall, aluminium mast – I believe it is the second tallest aluminium mast in the world – and that would not have helped. Stability was obviously the problem in the extremely strong winds she was experiencing and I’d assume the boat was pinned on its side and could not right before it filled up with water.”

Watch: What could have happened to the Bayesian yacht?

Karsten Borner, the captain of another yacht anchored nearby at the time of the storm, claims he saw the Bayesian’s mast “bend and then snap”. However, Ratt said an unusually tall mast is not by itself an element of vulnerability in a storm.

Matthew Schanck, chair of the Maritime Search and Rescue Council, told the BBC that it was difficult to say whether the mast broke, saying it was “pure guesswork”. He pointed out that divers have said the vessel is “basically intact” and if the mast was broken, “that would be a significant thing that would be reported”.

Freak waterspout was caused by ‘higher than usual temperatures’

Italian authorities have reported stormy conditions that caused the yacht to sink. It is believed the Bayesian may have been hit by a waterspout – a rotating column of wind that forms over a body of water and is often likened to a tornado.

According to the US National Ocean Service, tornadic weather spouts have the “same characteristics” as a land tornado and are often accompanied by severe thunderstorms, “high winds and seas, large hail, and frequent dangerous lightning”.

Some climate experts have said the storm could have been caused by global warming. Luca Mercalli, president of Italy’s meteorological society, said the sea surface temperature around Sicily in the days leading up to Bayesian’s sinking was about 30C – almost 3C more than normal. He told Reuters: “This creates an enormous source of energy that contributes to these storms.”

Borner, the captain of the boat moored nearby, also blamed more frequent episodes of intense heat during the summer months for playing a role in causing such storms.

He said: “The water is… way too hot for the Mediterranean and this causes for sure heavy storms, like we had one week ago on the Balearics, like we had two years ago in Corsica and so on.”

Will we ever know what happened to the Bayesian?

With the investigation still in its very early days, any explanation about what exactly happened to the Bayesian remains nothing more than a theory.

Experts are struggling to identify any single one cause, and are hesitant to make any conclusions, especially as the yacht was presumed to have top-class fittings and safety features. Another yacht anchored next to it remained afloat during the weather event.

Matthew Schanck, chair of the Maritime Search and Rescue Council, described the sinking as a potential “black swan event” – something that is unpredictable and is beyond what is normally expected from a situation and that has potentially severe consequences.

Nevertheless, he said he was confident the authorities would “get to the bottom” of what caused the vessel to sink, thanks to the accounts of survivors, witnesses and examination of the ship, which appears to have remained intact on the sea bed.

Who will lead the investigation?

Leading experts have already lent their knowledge of what could have caused the sinking of the Bayesian.

The official investigation into the disaster is being led by prosecutors in the nearby town of Termini Imerese.

Ambrogio Cartosio, the chief prosecutor of Termini Imerese, will be heading up the investigation alongside the assistant prosecutors.

The UK’s Marine Accident Investigation Branch is also expected to assist with inquiries. Their case is likely to take months to complete.

Read more

EMEA Tribune is not involved in this news article, it is taken from our partners and or from the News Agencies. Copyright and Credit go to the News Agencies, email news@emeatribune.com Follow our WhatsApp verified Channel