Chances are increasing for Invest 94L to become the season’s next named storm.
While everyone should closely monitor the system — and always be prepared — don’t panic. Even if it does become a strong tropical storm or hurricane, Florida (finally) looks like it may avoid direct impacts from this one. That’s welcome news to a state hit by two hurricanes in less than two weeks.
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Florida has been hit by three hurricanes so far this season: Hurricane Debby, Hurricane Helene and Hurricane Milton. That puts 2024 tied with five other years for the most hurricanes making landfall in Florida during a single season, according to Dr. Philip Klotzbach, meteorologist at Colorado State University specializing in Atlantic basin seasonal hurricane forecasts.
The next named storm of the season will be Nadine.
Here’s what you should know about Invest 94L.
Will Invest 94L become Tropical Storm Nadine?
Special note on the NHC cone: The forecast track shows the most likely path of the center of the storm. It does not illustrate the full width of the storm or its impacts, and the center of the storm is likely to travel outside the cone up to 33% of the time.
An area of low pressure, designated as Invest 94L, located over the central tropical Atlantic is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms, according to the National Hurricane Center.
This system is forecast to move generally westward, and environmental conditions could become more conducive for gradual development by the middle to latter part of this week.
A tropical depression could form as the system begins moving west-northwestward and approaches or moves near the Leeward Islands late this week.
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Formation chance through 48 hours: low, 30 percent.
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Formation chance through 7 days: medium, 60 percent.
AccuWeather meteorologists have begun to refer to Invest 94L as a “tropical rainstorm” to raise public awareness of the system.
Invest 94L spaghetti models
Special note about spaghetti models: Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.
Will Invest 94L become Tropical Storm Nadine or Hurricane Nadine?
Right now, Invest 94L is “struggling to get organized,” said AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva in a telephone interview Tuesday, Oct. 15. “It has circulation, but what’s missing are consistent thunderstorms around the center of circulation. It’s in a hostile environment right now, dealing with wind shear and dry air.
“It looks like any development over the next couple of days will be slow. Late in the week, probably Thursday or Friday, that’s when the window opens for it to develop into a tropical storm as wind shear relaxes. AccuWeather’s forecast is for it to become a tropical storm by Thursday night, early Friday, or, at the earliest, by Thursday afternoon.
Where could potential Tropical Storm Nadine go?
DaSilva offered three different scenarios on where Invest 94L could go:
What could the three possible paths mean for Florida and Palm Beach County?
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Over Hispaniola: This currently is the most likely track, according to DaSilva. Saturday afternoon into Sunday, the storm could move into Hispaniola, where high mountains are predicted to rip it apart.
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Southerly track: If Invest 94L moves south of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, avoiding mountains, it could become stronger in the Caribbean. At this time, this scenario isn’t likely,” DaSilva said.
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But if this is the path, it’s likely to move west toward Mexico, without any direct impacts to Florida and the U.S.
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Wind shear helping protect Florida and Palm Beach County, this time
“Wind shear should protect Florida from Invest 94L,” DaSilva said. “That’s good news. We definitely don’t need another one.”
What is an invest?
Short for investigation, the National Hurricane Center uses the term invest for areas of low pressure it is monitoring for potential development into a tropical depression or storm.
Invests are not tropical depressions or tropical storms. They’re usually clusters of showers and thunderstorms, and just because they’ve been designated as an invest does not guarantee they’ll develop into a tropical cyclone.
Invests run from 90 to 99, followed by a letter: L for the Atlantic basin and E for those in the eastern Pacific. After 99, it starts over again and the next invest would be 90.
Once something has been designated as an invest, specialized data sets and computer models can begin, including scheduling Hurricane Hunter aircraft missions and running spaghetti models.
National Hurricane Center map: What are forecasters watching now?
Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center.
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This article originally appeared on Palm Beach Post: Hurricane tracker Invest 94L 2024, Nadine spaghetti models for Florida
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