The National Hurricane Center forecasts Tropical Storm Francine to form in the Gulf of Mexico on Monday and grow into a hurricane before landfall this week.
In the NHC’s 5 a.m. EDT advisory for what is now called Potential Tropical Cyclone Six, the system was located about 295 miles south-southeast of the mouth of the Rio Grande River and 525 miles south of Cameron, Louisiana with maximum sustained winds of 50 mph moving north-northwest at 7 mph.
Tropical-storm-force winds already extend out 185 miles.
A tropical storm watch is in effect for Barra del Tordo, Mexico north to Port Mansfield, Texas.
The system is forecast to slowly continue in a northwest to north motion toward the Texas and Mexico coast on Monday, but then shift to the northeast and pick up stream.
“On the forecast track, the disturbance is expected to move just offshore of the northern Gulf Coast of Mexico through Tuesday, and approach the Louisiana and Upper Texas coastline on Wednesday,” said NHC senior hurricane specialist Richard Pasch. “The disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm today, with more significant intensification forecast to occur on Tuesday.”
The NHC gives it a 90% chance to develop.
The forecast predicts it to grow into a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph sustained winds and 100 mph gusts before making landfall somewhere in a cone of uncertainty that runs from the Gulf Coast near Galveston, Texas over to New Orleans.
Winds will begin hitting land within the watch area by Tuesday while the system is forecast to drop 4 to 8 inches of rain with some areas getting as much as 12 inches up along the Mexico and Texas coasts, and then southern Louisiana and Mississippi into Thursday morning bringing with it the threat of flash and urban flooding.
Some minor coastal flooding is possible along the coast of Mexico in areas that see onshore winds while swells will continue to spread across the northwestern Gulf coastline through midweek.
The NHC is also tracking two Atlantic systems with the chance to develop into tropical depressions or storms. After Francine, the next names on the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season list are Gordon and Helene.
The more likely of the two is an area of low pressure in the central tropical Atlantic that has disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
“Environmental conditions appear generally conducive for development during the next few days, and a tropical depression is expected to form while
the system meanders over the central tropical Atlantic,” the NHC stated in its 2 a.m. tropical outlook. “By the middle of the week, the system should begin move westward-northwestward at around 10 mph.”
The NHC gives it a 60% chance to develop in the next two days and 70% in the next seven.,
Farther east is a trough of low pressure several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands producing a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
“In a couple of days, this trough is expected to interact with an approaching tropical wave,” the NHC stated. “Thereafter, Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form during the middle to latter part of this week while the system moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.”
The NHC gives it a 60% chance to develop in the next seven days.
Tropical Storm Francine would mark the end of a nearly monthlong lull between the formation of named storms as Ernesto, which eventually grew into a hurricane, having formed as a tropical storm on Aug. 12.
Hurricane season runs from June 1-Nov. 30.
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