Tropical Storm Sara could become a hurricane next week… how concerned should we be?

A somewhat rare November storm system gathering steam in the Caribbean Sea that formed into Tropical Storm Sara on Thursday will slowly gain more tropical ammunition in the abnormally warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico before making a sharp right turn and taking dead aim toward Florida.

What does all that mean for storm-weary Floridians? Forecasters say it remains more of a watch, and not a worry, situation.

As of Thursday afternoon, Sara had sustained winds of 40 mph and was located around 205 miles east-southeast of Isla Guanaja, Honduras, moving west, according to the National Hurricane Center. A tropical storm is labeled when wind speeds reach at least 39 mph. That mountainous region of Honduras and Nicaragua will significantly take some punch out of the wind circulation, something that wasn’t evident Wednesday.

“A storm that spends more time over land will lose its intensity,” AccuWeather Senior Director of Forecast Operations Dan DePodwin said Thursday morning. “The big question is how much time will it spend over land that will limit its wind intensity.”

The difference, DePodwin said, could be Sara “becoming a strong tropical storm or a major Category 3 hurricane that forms in the Gulf of Mexico this weekend.”

What is the timeline for Tropical Storm Sara?

Sara is expected to meander in the Western Caribbean Sea just north of Nicaragua this weekend before moving over Belize and Guatemala. Ultimately it will emerge Monday off the west coast of Guatemala in the Bay of Campeche before its trek north.

At that point, forecasters will have a better idea of the strength and path of the storm.

Regardless, a high-pressure system from the continental United States is sinking fast and that, coupled with a strong jet stream, will slingshot the storm toward Florida, likely arriving sometime Wednesday night or early Thursday morning. This is where things are still murky.

Models have it headed anywhere from Florida’s peninsula all the way south to the Florida Keys. It’s also possible the storm could even dissipate and break apart in the Gulf because of the time it spends over land.

The last scenario, however, is not likely, DePodwin said.

“There are two factors that are going to continue to drive this storm,” he said. “One is the fact that there is plenty of warm water — about 4 to 6 degrees warmer than average — in the Caribbean Sea with depths of about 300 to 400 feet. The second is the lack of wind shear present that would help break it up.”

DePodwin said the likely worst-case scenario for Floridians would be a weak Category 1 hurricane or a strong tropical system that could bring plenty of rain and some wind damage.

“The state of Florida does not need any more tropical storm impacts,” he said. “It will just slow the recovery process of the previous storms.”

The significant worry for this storm is in Central America, which DePodwin said could turn into a “true humanitarian crisis” because of potential widespread flooding.

The storm will bring “life-threatening” flooding rainfall up to 30 inches, the National Hurricane Center warned.

He compared the potential threat of casualties to that of Hurricane Mitch, a late October 1998 storm that caused more than 11,000 fatalities in Honduras and Nicaragua because of cataclysmic flooding and the slow motion of the storm.

Mitch, although a significantly stronger storm, followed a slightly similar path and ultimately made a sharp right turn and hit Florida as a strong tropical system.

A wild hurricane season is just getting wilder

As of November, four hurricanes — Debby, Beryl, Francine, Helene and Milton — have accounted for an estimated $500 billion in damages and economic loss in the United States.

There now have been 18 named storms with 11 hurricanes and of those five have been major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher). All three figures are above the historical averages.

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If Sara does make landfall in the United States as a hurricane, it could challenge the latest landfall record of Hurricane Kate, which hit Florida as a Category 2 storm on November 21, 1985.

Only three November hurricanes have hit Florida:

• Yankee Hurricane (1935): A Category 2 hurricane that formed about 220 miles east of Bermuda before eventually making landfall near Bal Harbour in Miami-Dade County.

• Hurricane Kate (1985): Kate formed northeast of Puerto Rico on Nov. 15, traveled east through the Keys and then curved north before hitting the Florida Panhandle as a Category 2 storm.

• Hurricane Nicole (2022): Nicole was an early November storm that made landfall twice in Florida, south of Vero Beach and then off the Gulf Coast at Cedar Key. It crossed over the same region in Florida that had been devastated by Hurricane Ian six weeks earlier.

Hurricane season officially ends on Nov. 30, but named storms have formed in December in the past.

Ahead of storm threat, a cool front moves through

Ahead of the mid-week trepidation of Sara, two cool fronts will make their way through the Treasure Coast and Palm Beach County.

The first one, the weaker of the two, arrived Wednesday with a minimal drop in temperatures. The second, however, is coming through Friday and Saturday and will bring a larger drop in temperatures.

High temperatures will be in the low 80s and low temperatures will be in the high 60s this weekend. Wind speeds will also be lower.

James Coleman is a journalist at The Palm Beach Post, part of the USA TODAY Florida Network. You can reach him at jcoleman@pbpost.com and follow him on X (formerly known as Twitter) at @JimColeman11. Help support our journalism. Subscribe today.

This article originally appeared on Palm Beach Post: Could a potential November Hurricane Sara hit South Florida?

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