TSMC’s Profit Surpasses Estimates After AI Investment Surges

(Bloomberg) — Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.’s earnings beat lofty analysts’ estimates on growing AI investments around the world.

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Market expectations had risen in the weeks leading up to TSMC’s report on Thursday, with the AI frenzy and related investment showing no signs of slowing down.

The chipmaker for Apple Inc. and Nvidia Corp. said net income rose to NT$247.8 billion ($7.6 billion). The average estimate was for a 29% increase, and many expected TSMC to hike its full-year outlook after sales jumped in the June period. The company said last week that its second-quarter sales grew at the fastest pace since 2022.

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Shares of the world’s largest maker of advanced chips have more than doubled since the AI boom took off in late 2022, and hit a series of all-time highs as the firm’s market capitalization briefly crossed the $1 trillion mark.

Insatiable demand for Nvidia chips has propped up TSMC’s performance, while the wider smartphone market is on a path to recovery. Apple has seen handset sales stabilize, and provided an upbeat guidance to its suppliers on shipments for the upcoming iPhone 16 based on the potential strength of its new AI tools.

Read: Apple Aims to Ship 10% More New iPhones Following Bumpy 2023

What Bloomberg Intelligence Says

ASML’s 23.7% jump in order bookings in 2Q suggests TSMC’s N2 development is proceeding healthily, potentially accelerating capacity buildup. TSMC is scheduled to start mass production in 2H25, starting with an approximate 30,000-wafer monthly capacity in Hsinchu, Taiwan. Its N2 process will be priced at least 15% higher than N3, we believe.

— Charles Shum, BI analyst

Still, investor euphoria over TSMC’s prospects diminished Wednesday after Bloomberg Businessweek published comments by US Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump, who said he’s at best lukewarm about defending Taiwan in the event of Chinese aggression.

On top of that, the US is also mulling stricter chip curbs on China, Bloomberg News reported, triggering a global tech stock selloff as investors pondered the fallout for the world’s largest semiconductor arena.

And caution about AI is now emerging in corners of the market. This month, Goldman Sachs warned that the biggest US tech firms may be spending too much on AI.

SemiAnalysis’s Chaolien Tseng warned that TSMC’s stock may take a hit if expectations for the chipmaker to lift its 2024 revenue growth to at least 25% fail to materialize. In the last earnings call, TSMC Chief Executive Officer C.C. Wei reiterated the company’s estimate for full-year revenue to record a growth rate of low- to mid-20% in US dollar terms.

In the immediate term, the AI infrastructure buildout that’s driving chip sales is boosting expectations for TSMC to increase its capital expenditure. Its capex guidance for this year is $28 billion to $32 billion, with analysts estimating $29.5 billion.

Read: TSMC’s $420 Billion Stock Rally Rests on More Valuation Upgrades

–With assistance from Vlad Savov, Cindy Wang and Mayumi Negishi.