The frontline in Ukraine is at risk of “collapse” as Russian forces capture village after village, analysts have warned.
Kyiv’s defenders, exhausted from nearly three years of fighting, are outnumbered and desperately in need of equipment.
What’s more, their audacious incursion into Russia’s Kursk region in the summer means some of their most elite troops are now bogged down across the border and unable to help shore up vulnerable spots along the frontline.
Russia’s defence minister has said Moscow’s forces are “accelerating” their advance in eastern Ukraine.
It comes as President Vladimir Putin warned the West that he could hit countries supplying weapons used by Ukraine to strike targets inside Russia.
Back in August, Ukrainian forces launched a daring incursion across the border into Russia, supported by tanks and other armoured vehicles.
It appeared to catch the Kremlin by surprise and a portion of the Kursk region fell under Ukrainian control – and has been ever since. Some of Ukraine’s best-trained and best-equipped units are helping in the defence of the Kursk salient.
The idea was that the loss of territory in Kursk would be so politically unacceptable to Putin that Russia would redeploy its most capable units from eastern Ukraine to try and liberate it, thereby relieving pressure on the frontline in Ukraine, says Dr Marina Miron, an expert in war studies at King’s College London.
But instead, Russia seems willing to keep Ukraine bogged down in Kursk while it mounts punishing attacks along the frontline in Ukraine – with success.
Moscow’s forces have been advancing in the last two months at their fastest rate since March 2022, according to open source data, capturing village after village.
“The risk is that the frontline along the Donbas will collapse,” Dr Miron says. “Much faster, probably, because of this Kursk operation.”
She said Ukraine should worry less about what’s happening in Kursk and more about Russian advances towards the city of Toretsk and the key town of Pokrovsk.
“Those are very important logistical hubs and defence outposts for the Ukrainian armed forces, and losing them will give Russia the advantage to move forward to cities like Kramatorsk and Sloviansk.”
Pokrovsk, the sole source of coking coal for Ukraine’s steel industry, has been a major objective for Putin’s military. Some reports say Russian troops now hold positions less than six miles from the town.
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And despite the US finally lifting restrictions on Ukraine using Western missiles to hit targets inside Russia, Kyiv’s forces face big problems.
UK defence secretary John Healey warned on Thursday that the frontline in Ukraine is “now less stable than at any time since the early days of the full scale Russian invasion”.
Military analyst Sean Bell said a “perfect storm has happened” and pointed to difficulties posed by having to maintain the territory in the Kursk region of Russia while still defending at home.
“Ukraine decided to mount this audacious incursion into Russia itself in the Kursk region which might have eased tension but what it has done is split its limited resources and Russia has been on the front foot,” he said.
“Intelligence is suggesting it’s not just equipment Ukraine needs, it’s desperately running short of manpower.”
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