Last week, Ukrainian troops crossed the border to mount an offensive into the Kursk region of Russia, reportedly seizing scores of towns and settlements.
Residents frantically scrambled to leave their homes while electricity and water were shut off.
“It was not an easy journey,” said Elena from Sudzha, a town now under Ukrainian control.
Together with her cat Roo, she drove to the city of Voronezh, where she’s now staying with friends.
“We spent one and a half hours searching for a new carrier because Roo managed to break the front netting with his claws. He was stressed. I ended up carrying him in my arms, and he spent the whole journey hiding under the seat of the car.”
Local Telegram channels are filled with offers of free accommodation in various Russian cities, and the government has offered evacuees a one-time payment of 10,000 roubles (just over $100) as compensation although there may be additional payments, for example 600,000 roubles ($6,500) in case of serious injury.
“The enemy will certainly receive a worthy response, and all the goals facing us will undoubtedly be achieved,” Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Monday, ordering security services to conduct a “counterterrorist operation” in the region.
‘A strong move’
The Russian media, which is largely aligned with the Kremlin, has grudgingly acknowledged the Ukrainians’ success.
“The Zelenskyy regime has made a strong move – with all the resulting not-very-pleasant conclusions and consequences for our side,” columnist Mikhail Rostovsky wrote for the newspaper Moskovsky Komsomolets, referring to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
“If you are dealing with a strong adversary (and no sane person has long doubted that the Ukrainian Armed Forces are a strong and highly motivated adversary for Russia), you must be prepared for the fact that from time to time they will make strong and unexpected moves that will catch you off-guard.”
These successes were not lost on the exiled opposition.
Politician Leonid Gozman praised the Ukrainian troops.
“The actions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces speak not only of their high professionalism, but also of the creativity of the Ukrainian leadership,” Gozman wrote in Novaya Gazeta, a newspaper that often takes aim at the Kremlin.
“Someone said to them: ‘Why not?’ and they did what no one expected of them, completely changing the picture of the war. As President Zelenskyy rightly noted, the Ukrainian army knows how to surprise.”
Gozman noted that Russian citizens have not yet resisted the Ukrainians en masse and disparaged Russia’s defence capabilities.
“Just as during the days of [Yevgeny] Prigozhin’s rebellion it suddenly became clear that the various Russian Guards were only good at fighting peaceful demonstrators, and did not want to go up against armed bandits,” he said, referring to the late leader of the Wagner Group mercenary force.
“So now it turned out that the border guards were not capable of confronting a real threat (and it was not their fault, they were designed for something else), that the formidable Chechen troops had missed the enemy for the umpteenth time, otherwise they would have certainly routed him, but it did not happen, and most importantly, our generals are good at attacking other countries, but not at defending their own.”
Pro-Kremlin Russian media have repeatedly accused the Ukrainian army of targeting civilians, including a drone strike on an ambulance that killed its driver and one paramedic and wounded another.
There have also been reports that Ukrainian soldiers opened fire on cars in the village of Kurilovka, fatally wounding a pregnant woman, and took captive volunteers who were helping evacuate civilians.
On his talk show on Rossiya-1, Putin-friendly TV host Vladimir Solovyov accused Ukraine’s Western backers of masterminding the incursion.
“What we’re witnessing is an unprecedented escalation,” he told viewers.
“Western countries are sincerely attempting to say, ‘We weren’t involved. We didn’t greenlight this.’ This is an obvious lie. It’s clear that this operation wasn’t organised by Zelenskyy or his headquarters. This operation was developed by NATO specialists. Their signature style is clearly evident. Quite many mercenaries are also involved as well as units that were safeguarded until now. The quantity of Western equipment is unprecedented for this sort of a task.”
Solovyov then railed against Telegram channels and even “mainstream media” outlets that he accused of sowing panic.
“Are you working for the enemy?” he asked rhetorically.
Retired Lieutenant Colonel Roman Shkurlatov told the newspaper Izvestia that “the enemy may have several goals.”
“The first is to show their Western sponsors and curators that the Ukrainian Armed Forces can not only retreat, but also produce some results. They have been retreating and suffering defeats for months. They need a small tactical victory like air [to breathe]. The second probable goal is an attempt to stake out a foothold in the territory of Kursk Oblast for subsequent bargaining in these or other negotiations. The third is an attempt to force us to pull reserves near Kursk, exposing other directions. But they will clearly not succeed in this. We have enough unused reserves.”
Alexey Malinin, founder of the Center for International Interaction and Cooperation, a nonprofit research centre based at New York University, told Al Jazeera that from the Russian perspective, the invasion of Kursk is counterproductive to peace talks.
“The incursion of Ukrainian troops into the Kursk region shows that Ukraine aims to strengthen its negotiating position,” he said.
“However, this act does nothing to bring the negotiation process nearer. On the contrary, it severely delays negotiations. At present, we can’t talk about negotiations as calmly as before after the horrific bombings of settlements and civilians. Ukraine won’t improve its negotiating position, only, at best, delay the discussion of a peaceful resolution, but the final scenario can be much worse for the Ukraine.”
Malinin added that after the Kursk situation is resolved, the Russian military will retaliate with an “intensive offensive”.
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