Week 11 Expected Points: Ricky Pearsall thriving in increased role

Week 11 Byes: AZ, CAR, NYG, TB

Hello, and welcome to my Week 11 Expected Points article.

For those who may be new here and are curious about expected points, you should know that expected points come from the previous week’s games and are not projections. Expected points (EP) apply point values to players’ opportunities based on a number of factors such as down, distance, and where a player is on the field when they receive said opportunities. Players can then score above or below their expected fantasy points based on what they did with their opportunities — which we know as fantasy points over expected (FPOE).

Expected points are a usage stat that can help us identify players to target in the coming weeks, which I attempt to do every week in this article.

In addition to the handful of players I write up, I provide the highest EP totals from the previous week for:

• 50 running backs

• 50 wide receivers

• 24 tight ends

With plenty of potential gems to target in Week 11, here are some guys who caught my eye.

Running Backs

Week 10 Expected Points

Tyjae Spears (TEN, 7.4 Expected Points)

In his first game back from injury, Tyjae Spears saw 10 touches. It was only the second time Spears has seen double-digit touches this season, but it’s notable given the timing of everything. Spears’ 10-touch game came just a few days after head coach Brian Callahan said he “would love to reduce Tony Pollard’s workload.” Pollard averaged 19.0 opportunities per game through the first five weeks of the season when splitting the backfield with Spears. In Sunday’s loss to the Chargers, Pollard saw just 13 opportunities, his fewest in any game since Week 3.

Depending on who you ask, there are at least five fantasy-relevant running backs on bye this week. With few options available to bail out fantasy managers, Spears could make for an interesting play against a tough Vikings defense. Spears will be a lock to get some work in the ground game but also has a PPR scam to fall back on when needed. As long as he’s healthy, we should expect to see more involvement for Spears going forward.

Gus Edwards (LAC, 5.3 Expected Points)

Multiple bye weeks in back-to-back weeks present a unique challenge when it comes to pinpointing sleepers based on usage data from the previous week. Another player who returned from injury in Week 10 was Gus Edwards, who took 10 carries for 55 yards — a team-high — in a win over the Titans.

Edwards has no value as a pass-catcher, but the Chargers have given him double-digit carries in three of his five games played this season. Edwards hasn’t seen a carry in the green zone, which lowers his floor as a touchdown-dependent back, but if you need to catch lightning in a bottle at running back this week, there are worse things you can do than bet on a player who should flirt with double-digit carries.

Wide Receivers

Week 10 Expected Points

Ricky Pearsall (SF, 11.1 Expected Points)

Ricky Pearsall could not have returned to the 49ers at a better time. The rookie receiver fell victim to a gunshot wound during an armed robbery attempt before Week 1, which pushed his 2024 debut to Week 7. That week, the 49ers lost Brandon Aiyuk to a torn ACL, which immediately forced Pearsall into a starting role in the following weeks.

Since Week 7, Pearsall has led all 49ers receivers in routes run (85) and targets (15). The next closest receiver in routes run is Deebo Samuel, who has run just 62 routes in the same three games Pearsall has played in. It should be noted that Jauan Jennings was sidelined in Weeks 7 and 8 and emerged to lead the Niners with 11 targets and 7-93-0 in Week 10, but it’s clear Pearsall is a key part of the offense. He ripped off a long 46-yard touchdown in last week’s win over the Buccaneers and wound up seeing six targets on the day. Per FantasyPoints.com, Pearsall has also been the first read on 12 of his targets, a sign that the team is intent on getting the ball in his hands.

Everything is there for Pearsall to be an impact player on a week-to-week basis. Whether or not he capitalizes on his opportunities is to be determined, but he gets a juicy Week 11 matchup against a Seahawks defense that’s allowed the second-most fantasy points per game (41.4) to wide receivers since Week 5. RotoPat has him as a fringe WR3/WR4 in his weekly rankings, currently ranking him as the WR39.

Elijah Moore (CLE)

The Browns are coming off a bye week, but we shouldn’t be too quick to forget what the offense was doing in its two games with Jameis Winston under center and Ken Dorsey calling the plays. After catching 8-of-12 targets for 85 yards in the Browns’ Week 8 win over the Ravens, Moore went out and saw another nine targets in Week 9 against the Chargers. He caught only three of those passes for 28 yards, but Moore gets a bad Saints secondary in Week 11.

It goes beyond that, however. Since Week 8, the Browns have thrown at a 64 percent rate in neutral game scripts — the second-highest total of any team in the league. They’ve also dropped back in three wide receiver sets on 76.8 percent of their dropbacks.

Moore’s 21 targets over his last two games are tops on the Browns over that span. If you’re looking for a sneaky dart throw to survive a tough bye week, Moore should weave together a nice PPR scam on Sunday.

Tight Ends

Week 10 Expected Points

Will Dissly (LAC, 9.7 Expected Points)

I’ve gone down this road before, and I’m willing to do it again. Since Week 6, the Bengals have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends (17.6). They now get a Chargers team that has utilized Will Dissly at a notable rate since coming off their Week 5 bye.

Since Week 6, here’s where Will Dissly ranks amongst other tight ends:

Dissly’s overall routes and route participation (85.8 percent) over that span are low, but Dissly’s 0.29 TPRR since Week 6 also ranks fourth amongst all tight ends (min. 15 targets). Fantasy managers who are without Trey McBride or Cade Otton this week can take a free shot on Dissly, who has seen five or more targets in four of his last five games.

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