Week 18 Expected Points: Streamers to target in regular-season finale

Hello, and welcome to my Week 18 Expected Points article.

For those who may be new here and are curious about expected points, you should know that expected points come from the previous week’s games and are not projections. Expected points (EP) apply point values to players’ opportunities based on a number of factors such as down, distance, and where a player is on the field when they receive said opportunities. Players can then score above or below their expected fantasy points based on what they did with their opportunities — which we know as fantasy points over expected (FPOE).

Expected points are a usage stat that can help us identify players to target in the coming weeks, which I attempt to do every week in this article.

In addition to the handful of players I write up, I provide the highest EP totals from the previous week for:

• 50 running backs

• 50 wide receivers

• 24 tight ends

With plenty of potential gems to target in Week 18, here are some guys who caught my eye.

Running Backs

Week 17 Expected Points

Jaleel McLaughlin (DEN, 8.2 Expected Points)

The Broncos are one of a few teams who are still fighting for a playoff spot, while simultaneously facing off against a team full of backups. The Chiefs are expected to sit several of their starters in Week 18, which means Jaleel McLaughlin will be getting the Chiefs’ B-squad on defense — at least to some degree.

Since Week 14, McLaughlin’s 19 percent opportunity share leads all Broncos running backs, while his 22 opportunities rank third — although McLaughlin has played in one fewer game due to being sidelined in Week 16. McLaughlin’s 110 yards from scrimmage over that span also leads the team, and he should be in line to once again lead the team after totaling 76 yards from scrimmage on 12 opportunities last week against the Bengals.

Blake Corum (LAR, 1.4 Expected Points)

You won’t find Blake Corum’s name on the above table, as the rookie saw just three opportunities in last week’s win over the Cardinals. It was a typical stat line for Corum, who has been lightly used this season, but that’s expected to change in Week 18 against the Seahawks.

Speaking on The Coach McVay Show earlier this week, Sean McVay said he’s “excited about watching Blake Corum get a heavy workload” in the season finale. Corum feels like a near lock to get double-digit touches on Sunday against a Seahawks defense that’s allowing the fifth-highest yards per carry (4.6) in the league while also ranking in the bottom 10 in missed tackles rate (17 percent), YCO/ATT (2.28), and YBCO/ATT (1.94).

It’s hard to know how many backup linemen Corum will be running behind, but he still has the making of a solid volume-based play for fantasy managers still in need of a Week 18 dart throw.

Wide Receivers

Week 17 Expected Points

Marvin Mims (DEN, 12.5 Expected Points)

Marvin Mims broke out for 8-103-2 on eight targets in last week’s loss to the Bengals. The second-year receiver still isn’t seeing enough routes (16.5 routes/gm in last four games), but .0303 TPRR over that span would make for an elite number amongst more heavily-used receivers.

While Mims hasn’t been the most heavily used receiver in the league during his hot streak, the Broncos have been intentional about getting him the ball. Per the Fantasy Points Data Suite, Mims’ 11 designed targets since Week 13 rank as the third most of any receiver in the league.

As previously mentioned, the Broncos are in must-win territory and will face a Chiefs team that is expected to roll out several backups. Mims shouldn’t be counted on as anything more than a boom-or-bust WR4, but with that said, he has two top-12 PPR weeks on his ledger in his last four games.

Jalen McMillan (TB, 11.0 Expected Points)

I touted McMillan in last week’s expected points article, only to watch him go for 23.0 PPR points (WR13) while hauling in 5-of-5 targets for 51 yards and two touchdowns. McMillan has now scored in four straight games and has six touchdowns over that span.

The stakes remain high for the Buccaneers heading into Week 18. A win over the Saints secures them the top spot in the NFC South and a playoff berth. During McMillan’s four-game touchdown streak, the rookie receiver has caught 19-of-25 targets for 242 yards and six touchdowns while running 128 routes (32.0 routes/gm). His nine red zone targets are also tied for sixth-most over that span.

McMillan gets a Saints defense that’s allowed the 17th most PPR points per game (34.9) since Week 13 and the fourth most expected fantasy points per game (37.8).

Tight Ends

Week 17 Expected Points

Zach Ertz (WSH, 16.5 Expected Points)

Zach Ertz can earn up to $750k in incentives in Week 18 against the Cowboys. The veteran tight end. The veteran tight end has three different incentives worth $250k a piece, and will need nine receptions for 90-plus yards and two touchdowns if he hopes to get there.

It’s an admittedly steep hill to climb, but Ertz has been as sure-handed as they come for the Commanders this season, catching 61 passes for 610 yards and six touchdowns on 86 targets, and is fresh off a 6-72-2 game against the Falcons last week.

The Commanders can improve their seeding in the NFC playoffs with a win on Sunday over the Cowboys, so we expect them to give it their all in the season finale.

In Week 12’s loss to the Cowboys, Ertz caught 6-of-8 targets for 38 yards and a touchdown. Even if he doesn’t hit his incentive marks, there’s a good chance the volume is enough to lead to a productive fantasy week to close out the regular season.

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