Posted inSports

Week 2 Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em: The best place for Burrow is your bench

Fantasy football sit-and-start advice should always be relative and league-dependent. Many starts and sits are obvious too, so we will instead focus on fringe options in this column, the ones that take more thought. Good luck with your Week 2 lineups!

Expect a nice bounce-back game from Mark Andrews, but he and Likely can both remain top 10 fantasy tight ends this season. Likely is the real deal and was able to post an 8-88-1 line with Andrews on the field last week. Moreover, Baltimore used 12-personnel more than 50% of the snaps in Week 1, when Andrews and Likely had 39 plays together (their season-high in a game last year was 16).

Likely suddenly looks like a weekly fantasy start regardless of Andrews’ health.

Sit Zamir White, who got out-snapped and out-produced by Alexander Mattison last week and gets a tough matchup Sunday (Las Vegas has a league-low 16.25-point implied team total).

Few players saw their fantasy value increase more than Dobbins in Week 1. He led the league in rush yards over expectation, while Gus Edwards was bottom five. Despite being caught from behind on two different would-be long touchdowns, Dobbins tied for the fastest RB ballcarrier speed. He also saw work in the passing game and owns the highest explosive run rate (9.4%) among all running backs since entering the league in 2020.

The Panthers gave up the sixth-most fantasy points to RBs last year and just lost the team’s best defensive player, Derrick Brown. Sustainability may eventually become a problem for Dobbins while returning from Achilles surgery, so an opportunity to trade high could present itself after another big Week 2 performance.

Prescott is coming off a tough matchup but belongs in fantasy lineups back in Dallas in Week 2. He got 8.6 YPA at home last year (compared to 6.8 on the road), averaging 308.8 passing yards with a 22:3 TD:INT ratio over eight games. New Orleans’ major increase in pre-snap motion could keep this game competitive, leading to more Dallas passing volume. The Cowboys have one of the highest implied team totals (26.25 points) this week, so fire up Prescott with confidence.

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Goff owns the most extreme splits among quarterbacks, averaging 5.8 more fantasy points at home compared to on the road since joining Detroit. The Lions remain a run-first team, but Tampa Bay has been a pass-funnel defense, allowing the third-fewest fantasy points to running backs but the eighth-most to QBs last year. Jameson Williams, who is reportedly expected to play through an ankle injury, breaking out gives Goff yet another legit weapon. Detroit sports by far the highest implied team total (29.5 points) this week, so treat Goff as a top-10 QB.

Jalen McMillan quietly led the Buccaneers in routes run during his NFL debut last week. The rookie is a fantasy sleeper in this indoors and fast-paced matchup.

Jayden Reed is tough to sit given he’s the No. 1 fantasy WR in 0.5 PPR scoring after Week 1, but he needs to be downgraded to a flex option at best as well. Green Bay’s entire passing offense will suffer with Malik Willis expected to start, as he owns a career 5.2 YPA mark with a 0:3 TD:INT ratio. Willis had the lowest catchable ball rate during his last extensive action, and his low aDOT won’t help Watson.

Reed excels against zone coverage (the Colts used that coverage at the league’s fourth-highest rate in Week 1), but Kenny Moore is also one of the best slot corners in the league; Reed ran 82% of his routes from the slot in Week 1. Green Bay will be even slower than usual on an offense projected to score fewer than 20 points this week, so all Green Bay wide receivers deserve bench consideration in Week 2.

However, Josh Jacobs should be started with confidence.

Start: Amari Cooper

Cooper is coming off a rough Week 1 that featured a tough matchup and a missed easy 36-yard touchdown. His 16 receiving yards came with an NFL-high 170 air yards. Deshaun Watson clearly needs to play better, but Cooper should see double-digit targets with David Njoku out. Star Jacksonville corner Tyson Campbell was placed on IR, so don’t hesitate starting Cooper following his dud last week.

Purdy had a slow fantasy game as expected last week versus the Jets, as Jordan Mason had as many touches (29) as Purdy had pass attempts. Mason should be treated as a top-10 fantasy RB with McCaffrey out this week (and for as long as CMS is sidelined after landing on IR), regardless of matchup. But he could be sore coming off the most carries of his career (including college) during a short week, and a stout Brian Flores run defense isn’t a favorable matchup.

Enter Purdy, who just posted the best YPA in NFL history last year and comes into Week 2 with a fully loaded passing offense (sans CMC). Brandon Aiyuk will improve after a rusty Week 1 performance, and Purdy should put up a big game indoors against a pass-funnel defense with a banged-up Harrison Smith. Purdy is a strong Week 2 fantasy start.

New England once again has a lowly total, but I ranked Stevenson as a top-15 fantasy back this week anyway. He looked terrific in Week 1, dominating New England’s backfield touches while also recording the fourth-highest RB route share in the league. Stevenson gained 118 of his 120 rushing yards after contact Sunday. Seattle showed a much-improved run defense against Denver in Week 1, but the Seahawks allowed the second most fantasy points to running backs last season. Stevenson looks like a big win for those who drafted him.

Downgrade DK Metcalf, who will be shadowed by Christian Gonzalez (and Seattle should remain run-heavy even with Kenneth Walker III being listed as doubtful for the matchup).

The first Will Levis game under Brian Callahan was a disaster, resulting in 4.0 YPA and an ugly pick-6. The Titans were slow on offense and posted a -3.5% pass rate over expectation. DeAndre Hopkins is off the injury report and expected to play more snaps this week, and the Jets ceded by far the fewest fantasy points to wide receivers last season. Ridley can be sat against a tough secondary in a slow-paced matchup.

Robinson scored a touchdown and was stopped at the one-yard line two other times in Week 1, when he dominated Washington’s backfield. Robinson saw 15 of 17 RB opportunities before the fourth quarter (Austin Ekeler had one carry and one target).

Robinson is an underrated receiver and should benefit from Jayden Daniels’ ability to run. This matchup could be sneakily fast-paced, so keep Robinson in your fantasy lineups during a rare game in which the Commanders are favorites.

Robinson steps into a big role with Puka Nacua sidelined. He had a 92% route participation mark last week when he posted a much higher average depth of target than Tyler Johnson. The Rams are the best offense for fantasy wide receivers, and Robinson recorded 100% of his production last week versus man coverage, which Arizona used at the league’s seventh-highest rate. The Rams may struggle to run with so many injuries along its offensive line, so Robinson is a fantasy sleeper this week.

Burrow will likely improve as the season progresses, and it’s good news Cincinnati finished with the highest pass rate over expectation in Week 1 (KC was second). This game should also be fast-paced, but nearly 70% of Burrow’s passes were short of the sticks despite being pressured at the third-lowest rate of his career in Week 1; Burrow has become a check-down artist since opposing defenses started employing two-high safeties at a high rate. The Bengals used pre-snap motion at the league’s fourth-lowest rate during Burrow’s first game ever without OC Brian Callahan.

Burrow will likely continue to miss Tee Higgins this week against a Chiefs defense that allowed just 6.0 YPA and the sixth-fewest fantasy points to QBs last season. L’Jarius Sneed is gone, but only Cleveland allowed fewer yards per play (4.5) at home last year than Kansas City. Burrow can be used if needed, but I rank 15 fantasy quarterbacks higher this week, so you may have superior alternatives.

Isiah Pacheco, however, is in a smash spot and deserves DFS consideration.

Harris saw 22 of 30 RB opportunities for Pittsburgh last week when the Steelers had the lowest pass rate over expectation. Justin Fields looks set to start again Sunday, and the Broncos allowed the most schedule-adjusted fantasy points to running backs last season and the fifth most in Week 1. Pittsburgh enters favorites with a defense that could overwhelm rookie Bo Nix, so game script should be favorable too. Jaylen Warren may see more work, but Harris is a strong fantasy start this week.

George Pickens is a bench candidate in a tough matchup with Patrick Surtain shadowing him.

Williams posted an anemic 3.2 YPA (!) and a CPOE (-19.7) in the third percentile during an NFL debut to forget. He joined Desmond Ridder as the only two QBs in modern history to attempt more than 25 passes and throw for fewer than 100 yards during their debuts. Williams had as many fumbles (one) as he did rush attempts, which isn’t what fantasy managers want to see.

Better days are ahead, but Williams’ transition to the NFL (with a shaky coaching staff) will apparently come with some major bumps. The Titans’ defense may be legit, but Williams must now travel to play his first road game in Houston in primetime. Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze didn’t practice are both questionable for the matchup, so the Bears will likely be short-handed at wideout as well. Sit Williams this week.

Smith should be busy Monday night. A.J. Terrell will be shadowing A.J. Brown, who is dealing with a hamstring injury, while Atlanta has a solid run defense. Smith didn’t erupt in Week 1, but his fantasy value is on the rise. He was used more in the slot as hoped, running 74% of his routes there in Week 1.

Moreover, the Eagles utilized motion on 48 of 73 plays (65.8%) during Kellen Moore’s first game as OC, which is their highest mark in a game since 2020. Philadelphia used motion at the league’s lowest rate last year, and the offense will continue to benefit from the change.

Smith is a top-15 WR this week.

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