5 things I care about
The 49ers’ bag is deep
Nothing has been easy for the San Francisco 49ers in 2024. Few teams have had to deal with an avalanche of injuries like the 49ers have this season.
No operation has had to embody the next-man mentality like this year’s 49ers and yet, on Sunday Night Football, as they continued to dig into the bag for playmakers, they found answers.
With Deebo Samuel Sr. once again in and out of the game, Brandon Aiyuk on IR and Christian McCaffrey at least a couple of weeks away from a return, George Kittle was the lone superstar 49er skill-position player available. He made his presence felt all night long.
Kittle led the 49ers in routes and was targeted on 28% of those patterns. The Cowboys linebackers and other middle-of-the-field defenders will have nightmares of the All-Pro tight end. Not only did he instantly dust anyone who covered him, he looked to get upfield as soon as the pass hit his hands. Kittle averaged almost 12 yards after the catch per reception on Sunday night.
Given the state of the 49ers injury list, he was the main man Dallas needed to contend with. They were utterly incapable of handling the task.
It wasn’t just Kittle who contributed to moving the ball. Plenty of ancillary characters stepped up, and that was without primary depth receiver Jauan Jennings, still out with a hip injury. First-round wideout Ricky Pearsall didn’t have a big fantasy day but caught all four of his targets and contributed a critical 39-yard run in the final minutes to help close out the game.
When Jordan Mason left the game with the shoulder injury he’s been nursing, rookie rusher Isaac Guerendo stepped in to touch the ball 14 times for 80 yards. He looks like someone who could start games for this team and they’d be solid.
Picks like Pearsall and Guerendo seem like luxuries when they come down the wire during NFL Draft weekend. The 49ers have great players at those positions, so why are these guys needed? Beyond the reality of eventual contract squeezes, it’s not like this is the first time a Kyle Shanahan team has experienced waves of injuries. This team knows what it’s like to have to reach deep into your bag for new options on offense. The fact that they have done that so often this season to rousing success is what’s keeping this season from falling apart and stands in stark contrast to the team they faced in Week 8.
Quality depth skill-position players are necessary when you’re a team like the 49ers which is built around an elite offense. Why face the darkness when injuries hit? The 49ers elected not to, by drafting, grooming and developing talented players behind their star-caliber options. This team isn’t out of the woods yet, but if they can push through adversity into the postseason, it will quietly be due to that depth on offense.
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Jayden Daniels
Given that it appeared for most of the week that Jayden Daniels wasn’t even going to suit up for Week 8, his play in a win over Chicago was wildly impressive.
The Bears’ hideous execution on the final two plays of the game influenced his final stat line and those whiffs say more about Chicago than Daniels. However, his play throughout the course of the evening is the statement.
Daniels told CBS before the game that despite his injury, he wasn’t going to change his playing style. He was true to his word. When there were lanes to take off and scramble, he took them. Daniels has the quarterback instinct to protect himself and looked to get out of harm’s way rather than take needless shots.
On a day where the Dolphins’ stadium erupted in cheers when Tua Tagovailoa slid after scrambling in his first game off a lengthy concussion absence — and Anthony Richardson once again took endless shots — that feels like a significant positive note in Daniels’ scouting report. If you watched him in college, he didn’t always protect himself. He looks like a different player after just a couple of months of pro experience.
Week 8 was also a reminder of what Daniels is doing in an offense that is surprisingly well-designed and called by Kliff Kingsbury but isn’t littered with playmakers. He found his weekly deep shot success with No. 1 superstar wideout Terry McLaurin, but no other wide receivers made a consistent impact, outside of Noah Brown on the 52-yard Hail Mary. Several players left plays on the field for Washington’s quarterback.
With wide receiver trade rumors swirling constantly in the middle of this season, you have to wonder if Washington might sniff around. At 6-2, with a clear transformative talent under center coming off this moment, I wouldn’t blame the Commanders.
Week 8 felt like a special moment in the story of Jayden Daniels. It made it all the more impressive that he was so cool and collected in the postgame interview with Tracy Wolfson of CBS. He acted like a guy unfazed by his own greatness and who expected nothing less than the best outcome possible for himself and his team. At this point, that’s what we should expect too.
Keon Coleman and Khalil Shakir
Amari Cooper got the projected playing time bump in his second game with the Bills. He ran a route on 65% of the dropbacks, supplanting Mack Hollins in the pecking order. However, he and his one catch weren’t the story, because the holdover receivers for Buffalo won the day.
Been saying about Khalil Shakir but having a reliable layup receiver who can do something with the ball in his hands is just so key vs. modern defenses – 9.9 YAC per reception in Week 8.
This is even more true when you pair this guy with a “dunk on you” ball-winner like Keon… pic.twitter.com/NP9eAVZ0yl
— Matt Harmon (@MattHarmon_BYB) October 28, 2024
Mr. Automatic, Khalil Shakir, continues to shine as the ideal complementary receiver for a modern NFL offense. In Week 8, Shakir caught nine of 10 targets and averaged 9.9 yards after the catch per reception. This is just what he does. You can feel in-game just how much Josh Allen values having this type of layup target. Shakir has done everything to earn that level of adoration.
Having a receiver like this is even more critical when you feature a wideout like rookie Keon Coleman, who has been heating up of late. The Bills have deployed Coleman primarily on vertical routes and don’t do much to help him earn separation. Allen does not care about that lack of separation and I can’t blame him. Coleman converted three third-down targets into first downs and has won multiple tight coverage receptions the last two weeks. It takes a second for the contested ball-winner receivers to get into sync with their quarterback. The passer has to know exactly where to place the ball for a guy like Coleman and Allen has the gig figured out.
The Bills have their top three guys in the wide receiver room. All of them bring a different skill set to the room and Josh Allen is only continuing to develop his chemistry with all of them.
By the time we get to the end of the season, these three guys will really be flying.
The Bengals offense is sputtering
The Bengals didn’t have Tee Higgins in their loss to the Eagles, but that doesn’t fully explain their sputtering offense. That’s because this isn’t an outlier incident.
Coming out of the Bengals’ Week 5 overtime loss to the Ravens, the vibe around the team was concern over whether their woeful defense could be overshadowed by a dangerous offense. Since that game, the Bengals have scored 17 points against the Giants in a win, 21 in a victory over the Browns and a mere 17 points as the Eagles demolished them in Week 8. That’s not a great stretch for a team that should be able to hang points on anyone.
It’s hard to put a pin on precisely what’s ailing Cincinnati’s offense but the unit lacks a punch.
The run game is undoubtedly a piece of the problem. Chase Brown has taken control of the backfield, a big fantasy development but not something that’s changed the ground attack. Brown had a long run of five yards against the Eagles and has gone under 3.0 yards per carry in back-to-back weeks. He was meant to bring a big-play element over the steady styles of Zack Moss. That has yet to express itself.
The Bengals have been able to hit on some off-script plays of late, but their base quick-game concepts have left a lot to be desired. Ja’Marr Chase accumulated just 54 yards on 11 targets. Unless he makes a superhuman YAC play, there isn’t much exciting happening through the air.
Perhaps at some point, this unit gets rolling. For now, this group is a letdown in the moment of the season when the Bengals could least afford it.
Marvin Harrison Jr. in-breakers
I’m sure the obsession over Marvin Harrison Jr.’s route tree assignment will get nauseating for most readers at some point, if it isn’t already. I get it. But for starters, if obsessing over route trees is wrong, I don’t want to be right. Additionally, this is a significant deal and the biggest reason the fourth-overall pick’s season has been a bit rocky.
Week 8 was a huge step in the right direction for Harrison.
Kyler Murray enjoyed his best passing game of the season, as he attacked downfield against a Dolphins pass defense that has been a quality unit to date. Next Gen Stats notes that Murray went 10 of 13 for 192 yards and two touchdowns on passes over 10 air yards against Miami. The way Harrison was used proved to be a big factor as the two connected on multiple deep in-breaking and horizontal routes.
We just didn’t see Harrison targeted on those routes nearly enough in the first half of the season. His route tree coming into Week 8 consisted of the exact opposite type of patterns:
Thought it would be interesting to look at the other end of this list, aka highest % of routes they chart as
vertically-breaking or static (min. 150+ total routes)1) Jahan Dotson 70.2%
2) DK Metcalf 68.9%
3) Tyler Lockett 68.8%
4) Alec Pierce 68.4%
5) Demarcus Robinson 65.2%… https://t.co/fEWBt8qpe5— Matt Harmon (@MattHarmon_BYB) October 22, 2024
Harrison made his big plays in college on big overs across the middle of the field. Despite his size, he wasn’t always just a go route specialist or boundary, contested-catch dominator, but that’s how the Cardinals had been using him this year. It shouldn’t be this difficult, but sometimes it takes a little time for a young coaching staff to figure out a new player. It seems like that’s been the case in Arizona with Harrison.
If today is any indication, they’re starting to identify where the rookie wideout wins.
It’s also fair to note that Murray and Harrison’s chemistry has been a work in progress, especially getting the timing right on these in-breakers. Murray had a +10.4% completion rate over expected in this game on passes over 2.5 seconds, per Next Gen Stats. In prior weeks, he had been too quick to bail on some of these longer-developing routes over the middle. Patience paid off in this comeback win.
Harrison may still go down as a reach in redraft fantasy leagues and by no means does this one game remove volatility from his week-to-week range of outcomes. However, this was a correction on what’s been the most prominent issue in unleashing the ultra-gifted rookie wide receiver.
5 things I don’t care about
Brand-name Cowboys players
The Dallas Cowboys do not have enough good players on offense. Period. That’s the story.
It was obvious all offseason that the team was shaky on the offensive line, hilariously overmatched in the running back room and undermanned at the complementary pass-catcher positions. It didn’t help matters that they spent all summer engaged in a needless contract dispute with their lone superstar. This wasn’t the case on Sunday night, but at times this season CeeDee Lamb has looked like he carried a little rust into the season. That’s a problem a team with no margin for error, like Dallas, cannot afford.
With 10:50 left in the fourth quarter, the Cowboys sat on just 3.8 yards per play. That is unspeakably poor. Especially considering the 49ers defense is far from some juggernaut. It’s been a vulnerable stop-unit all season.
You wouldn’t know it trying to watch the Cowboys move the ball on Sunday night.
Lamb is fantastic, but with the lack of players around him and the offense’s overall stagnant nature, he’s felt easier to defend than ever this season. When your roster is so poor around your superstar and your scheme is stale, it neuters your elite players. That’s where Dallas finds itself too often.
The only reason this game got close in the end was because of Lamb, who went off in the fourth quarter. Nothing else worked in the passing game. Lamb’s jump up toward the end of the contest came on a handful of big plays, some of which were blown coverages by the 49ers defense. It’s hard to take much positivity away from those plays unless you have Lamb on your fantasy team.
As for the running back rotation, they have names that ran the league back in 2017 with Dalvin Cook activated for his first game with Dallas. It didn’t matter. Rico Dowdle will likely return to a big workload in Week 9 after coming down with an illness before this game. He’s not a star but is clearly the top back on the team, despite the lack of name value.
Everything on paper this offseason pointed to a top-heavy Dallas Cowboys offense that didn’t have nearly the supporting characters needed to be an above-average unit.
That’s exactly what they are and anyone could see it coming.
Ladd McConkey’s delayed bump
We talk about the “post-bye rookie bump” for first-year wide receivers because they tend to hit later on in the season, particularly after their teams get back from a week off. Typically, this is when coaches can take a look at the film and see their young players need more opportunities. Adjustments often follow the bye week and the rookie gets elevated.
Ladd McConkey was such an obvious candidate for the bump coming off his early bye week. The rookie’s film was fantastic to start the year; all his separation skills and juice after the catch translated from college to the NFL. It was obvious on tape even if the stats hadn’t followed.
Enter the post-bye rookie bump.
Unfortunately, McConkey dealt with some injuries in Week 6 that had him coming on and off the field. Those lingered into Week 7 and he didn’t look 100% against the Cardinals last Monday night. The delayed gratification hit though, and it all came together in Week 8 against the Saints.
McConkey’s route running chops were on full display against the man-coverage-heavy Saints defense. The rookie proved once again he’s no Mickey Mouse route-running slot receiver. He averaged 12.2 air yards per target and got downfield. Then, he reminded everyone that he’s not a catch-and-fall slot, either. He averaged 6.3 yards after the catch per reception and ripped through the heart of New Orleans’ defense on his way to a 60-yard score.
McConkey did earn the post-bye rookie bump. It just took a little bit longer to fully bake. As we come out of Week 8, he’s a full-time player on an offense with a top-10 quarterback, and all his high-end collegiate skills have translated. That’s the definition of a player screaming up the rankings.
Pre-conceived notions about Browns WRs
Whatever you thought you knew about the Browns wide receivers, throw it out.
Everything you thought you knew about how good this room is was all clouded by how completely incompetent the quarterback was in Cleveland this season.
One game in with normal quarterback play and all of a sudden this looks like a more than viable wide receiver room.
Browns scoring 20+ points in a game this season:
With Deshaun Watson: 0 for 7
With Jameis Winston: 1 for 1— Underdog NFL (@Underdog__NFL) October 27, 2024
Elijah Moore is a good separator. Forget what the compromised per route and per target stats say; I’ve seen his route running with my eyeballs. Getting open isn’t the only thing that matters at the position, but it is quite important. Anytime a competent quarterback is under center for Cleveland and Moore is healthy, he gets the ball. Moore was the primary slot receiver in Week 8 and was targeted on 36% of his routes and led the team in first downs per route run.
I’ve always been a little lower than consensus on Jerry Jeudy, but he’s a viable NFL receiver. He can play inside and outside thanks to his man-coverage skills. There’s no reason for him to be the lead dog in this wide receiver room just because of his contract, but he is not some worthless player, either.
Then there’s Cedric Tillman.
It’s been clear for some time that the Browns wanted to find a way to get Tillman on the field, but he’s a natural X-receiver and was never going to play in that spot over Amari Cooper. Now that the veteran is gone, Tillman has fully blossomed. Tillman led the team in air yards and picked up critical yards after the catch. He’s excellent on in-breaking routes from the X-receiver position. Based on his college profile, his play on film the last two weeks and the opportunity on his plate with Jameis Winston, Tillman could go down as one of the best waiver wire wide receivers this season.
The Browns offense has always had underrated wide receiver talent on the roster. With Cooper gone and a significant upgrade from the non-viable play of Deshaun Watson, we’re seeing that expressed in Weeks 7 and 8.
Further Buccaneers WR debates
All week, the fantasy industry debated which Buccaneers wide receiver would pick up the slack after Mike Evans and Chris Godwin’s injuries. It’s just one week, but I feel good about being unenthused about these depth wideouts and instead calling Cade Otton the real stock-up option.
Otton was far and away the best pass-catcher on the team in Week 8. He ran a route on 88% of the dropbacks against the Falcons, led the team with 10 targets — including three in the red zone — and lined up all over the field. He was the layup target for Baker Mayfield, picking up a lot of the slack left behind by Godwin over the middle.
The only players to catch more than four passes for Tampa Bay were Otton and both running backs, Rachaad White and Bucky Irving. Those backs can be productive receivers, especially White as a dump-off and screen target. The receiving role for both is sticky.
The gap in production between Otton and the backs compared to the wide receivers won’t be this extreme every week. However, the wide receiver room just can’t carry an enormous burden. Veteran Sterling Shepard is the best and certainly most reliable player remaining in the room by a significant margin, but he is an injury risk and a possession slot receiver only at this stage of his career. Shepard only ran a route on 74% of the dropbacks and missed some time with a hamstring injury.
Otton already had solid route participation and snap share data coming into the game. The volume has started to head his way now that the top wideouts are out of the mix. Godwin’s absence, in particular, opens up opportunities for Otton. His Week 8 usage tells the story of a starting tight end in fantasy football.
The Jets
The 2024 Jets just have not felt like a serious operation for the majority of this season. From firing their head coach after an international trip to a predictable trade for their quarterback’s former No. 1 wide receiver, the headlines have been more fascinating than the games.
The more things change, the more they stay the same.
Predictably, adding Davante Adams to the Jets offense did not take this unit into the stratosphere. It made things easier for Garrett Wilson. Last time the Jets and Patriots faced off this season, Christian Gonzalez tracked Wilson around the field and Rodgers found success taking downfield shots elsewhere. In Week 8, Next Gen Stats tracked Gonzalez lining up across from Adams on 80% of his routes and allowing only one catch. Meanwhile, Wilson lined up all over the field and led the team in targets (eight) and receiving yards (113).
Wonderful. The offense still isn’t good enough.
The Jets get off the field too quickly with inefficient early down plays. Three of their seven drives in the first three quarters ended after just four plays. Their scoring drives take forever because they don’t get the ball down the field with any regularity. It’s an offense without any teeth.
On the other side of the ball, the once-proud Jets defense isn’t a needle-mover. The secondary was a strong unit but has dealt with cluster injuries. The pass rush remains an irregular entity, sacking the Patriots quarterbacks just twice behind a miserable offensive line. And that was with pocket statue Jacoby Brissett taking most of the reps in this game after Drake Maye was ruled out with a concussion. The run defense has been an issue all season and while the Patriots’ Week 8 rushing numbers don’t look gaudy, Rhamondre Stevenson converted some critical late downs, and near the goal line.
The Jets keep asking us not to take them seriously with their on- and off-field actions. It’s past time we listen to them.
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