When will the cold front come to Florida? Fort Myers area could see big chill mid-January

January snow in Fort Myers? Record cold in Lee County? Really?

For those who’ve lived through a few hurricane seasons, the pre-arctic blast hype feels familiar, but this time cold is the X factor.

Influencers are taking to social media to tease and speculate. Come Jan. 11, they’re saying, we just might see some Midwest-level cold.

NBC2’s Peter Busch posted about “a tiny chance (of) measurable snow as far south as Lee County … highly unlikely, but it’s fun to dream!” he wrote on Facebook, while veteran weather guru Wayne Sallade said “sub-freezing temperatures could be in the cards for much of the Florida Peninsula. Some models even show a snow event for North Florida.”

Both are careful to hedge their bets, but as Busch notes, it’s fun to think about.

Wayne Sallade

That is, unless you’re a farmer or someone caring for delicate plants, like at the Naples Botanical Garden.

It’s too early for worry, but the plant guardians there are definitely watchful, says Brian Galligan, the Garden’s vice president of horticulture. “We’ll wait three or four days beforehand” to take any action.

The weather experts are being cautions too, despite people having their fun online.

Meteorologist Austen Flannery chuckles at the idea of knowing for sure what will happen so far out.

“People are latching onto a single, deterministic factor – forecast,” said Flannery. who works in the National Weather Service’s Ruskin office, which covers Lee County.

“That forecast is going to be run dozens and dozens of times between now and then, and it is going to change. So anybody who’s trying to put a specific value on it at this point, that’s a little premature,” he said.

What he will say is that it’s going to be pretty cold, provided the air stays calm.

“One of the big factors is if there’s any wind,” he said. “Even a very slight wind can make a big difference. Yes, it’s going to feel colder, but that doesn’t mean it’s actually colder.”

He says this is a good time to think about protecting sensitive vegetation or maybe “get down that box of polar jackets, you only bring out a couple times once a year.”

When will the picture become clearer? “A week or so out we should have a much better idea.”

Alex DaSilva of AccuWeather was willing to do a little more speculating, telling USA Today Network Florida’s TCPalm to expect what he called “an impactful event,” with temperatures:

• Panhandle/North Florida: It’s possible some areas could see temperatures in the teens

• Central Florida: mid to upper 20s, even in Orlando

• South Florida: It’s hard for Arctic air “to get all the way down there, but temperatures could be around the freezing mark. It would take a lot to get Miami around freezing but interior locations could potentially slip below freezing,” DaSilva said.

Could the cold break a Lee record? Maybe. The year 2010 saw a 31-degree Jan. 11.

The big chill’s “very rough” arrival window opens the 11^th, agree Flannery’s Miami-based National Weather Service colleague Donal Harrigan, but predictions won’t start to firm up until closer to a week out. “when we start watching the trends from model run to model run so we can probably ballpark – or at least give some scenarios,” he said. (For those of you following along, that’s Saturday, Jan. 4)

“At this point, it’s premature to talk about the exact numbers.” Instead, Harrigan says, “It’s more appropriate to say there are signals we’re going to get a cool-down that will be colder than what we’ve seen this year.”

Beyond that, “it’s just for fun.”

This article originally appeared on Fort Myers News-Press: Lee County could be in for historic chill around the 10th of January

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