Sep. 1—The races for president and for Maine’s 2nd Congressional District are dominating the headlines, but insiders say races for the 186 seats in the Maine Legislature are the tightest they have seen in years, with Democrats working overtime to protect their majorities.
The outcome of those races will not only decide the balance of power in the House and Senate but will also set the stage for Gov. Janet Mills’ final two years in office. It’s a battle that could shape future laws on important issues from abortion rights to gun safety to tax reform.
Republicans are hoping that six consecutive years of Democratic control over the state Senate, House of Representatives and the Blaine House will end with at least one of the chambers in Republican control, while Democrats are playing defense in many open races because of incumbents either terming out or deciding not to run for reelection.
The Senate, which has more influence over spending decisions and often acts as a moderating force for the lower chamber, has proven to be more volatile in the past. Democrats have won the upper chamber in 11 of the last 16 elections and have held it since 2018. Republicans controlled it in six of the preceding eight years.
Democrats hold a nine-seat majority in the Senate, controlling 22 seats compared with 13 held by Republicans. Eight of the 35 seats are open — four incumbents from each party are not seeking reelection.
Senate President Troy Jackson, who is termed out of his District 1 seat, said the upper chamber could break either way.
“This is the most competitive landscape we’ve had during my time as Senate President, and more seats are in play this year than in recent elections,” Jackson, D-Allagash, said in a statement. “We see a real possibility of expanding our majority. Given how close some of these districts are, Republicans could also flip some seats.”
In the House, Democrats currently hold a 12-seat majority, controlling 79 seats. Republicans hold 67 seats, independents have two and three seats are vacant. Democrats have controlled the House at least for the last 30 years, except for two years while Paul LePage was governor.
House Minority Leader Billy Bob Faulkingham, R-Winter Harbor, believes Republicans have a good chance of seizing control of the lower chamber, predicting his party could win 78 to 80 seats. He said the party is looking to flip seats along the coastline, primarily by talking about inflation and the Democrats’ push for renewable energy, including offshore wind, which is opposed by many fishermen.
Faulkingham said Democrats can’t blame Republicans for any of the challenges the state is facing, since they have cut Republicans out of major policy and legislative decisions, including the budget. Republicans are also looking to exploit Democratic support for using public funding to house migrants while the state is experiencing a housing crisis.
“I hope Maine voters realize the Democrats have been in control for the last six years,” Faulkingham said, adding that Republicans have controlled the house only once since 1976. “I hope they will give Republicans a shot at governing the state.”
Of the 151 House seats, 35 are not being defended by an incumbent. Democrats hold 21 of those open seats, Republicans hold 13, and one is held by an independent.
Assistant House Majority Leader Kristen Cloutier, D-Lewiston, described this year’s races as “fiercely competitive” grassroots campaigns.
“As Democratic leaders, we know these races are fiercely competitive because the stakes are so high — from protecting our reproductive rights to ensuring investments in education, health care, infrastructure and more,” Cloutier said in a written statement. “Every seat matters and every vote counts. We are committed to fighting for every community to have a strong voice in shaping our state’s future.”
While Faulkingham believes six years of single-party rule will be a liability for Democrats, Jackson said he believes that Democratic efforts to improve health care, crack down on medical debt and protect reproductive freedom will resonate with working-class voters.
“We have a real opportunity to show voters how Senate Democrats have delivered for working Mainers,” he said.
Senate Minority Leader Trey Stewart, R-Presque Isle, did not respond to interview requests last week.
Democrats continue to hold a fundraising advantage.
Through July 16, the latest reporting deadline, the Maine Democratic State Committee had raised nearly $609,000 this cycle. The Maine Republican Party raised more than $267,000 while carrying more than $100,000 in unpaid debts.
The House Democratic Campaign Committee raised $382,440, while the Senate Democratic Campaign Committee raised $533,650. That’s compared with the nearly $158,000 raised by the House Republican Fund and the $210,861 raised by the Maine Senate Republicans.
The races are likely to draw outside money as well.
House Democratic Campaign Committee Director Sean Smith suggested that Democrats have a built-in disadvantage this cycle, with three times as many members terming out as Republicans and more than a dozen other incumbents not seeking reelection.
“These races are close every year, and often majority control of the House chamber comes down to a handful of votes in a few districts,” Smith said in a statement. “But we have amazing candidates running all throughout the state, and I think ultimately voters in Maine want to be represented by kind, normal, reasonable people who will put aside politics and partisanship to get things done for their constituents.”
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