The irony is unlikely to be lost on Emmanuel Macron: while France’s fire-struck Notre-Dame cathedral is to reopen after being saved in extremis from total collapse, the country’s government is about to come crashing down.
Later on Wednesday, Marine Le Pen is due to don the role of arsonist-in-chief when her populist National Rally (RN) joins an unholy alliance with the Left-wing opposition to topple the cabinet over what she has called a “dangerous, unjust and punitive budget”.
After snap elections in July that left the National Assembly with no workable majority, President Macron thought he had found the perfect political fireman in the form of Michel Barnier, the EU’s former chief Brexit negotiator.
Who better to cobble together a government of Macronistes, Right-wingers and a few centre-Left figures than the phlegmatic 73-year-old with nothing more to prove?
The hour was grave, Mr Barnier told France as he took up office in September and discovered state finances in far worse shape than previously thought. The only option was to push through an austerity budget with €40 billion (£33 billion) in savings and €20 billion (£16 billion) in tax rises.
Yet not even Mr Barnier could captain this doomed ship.
Irked at not being tasked to run the government itself, the opposition Left refused any compromise with his rickety minority government, pledging to bring it down at the earliest opportunity.
That left Ms Le Pen and the RN, run by 29-year-old protégé Jordan Bardella, as sole kingmakers in parliament.
The largest single party in opposition offered Mr Barnier a stay of execution as long as he didn’t cross its “red lines” on the budget.
With downturned thumb, Ms Le Pen let it be known on Monday those lines had indeed been crossed and that she would back the Left-wing no-confidence motion.
Out on a limb
Yet Mr Barnier had gone out on a limb to accede to her demands, agreeing to cut electricity price rises to the tune of €3 billion (£2.5 billion) and then to reverse cuts on medical reimbursements. He had also reacted positively to her calls for proportional representation in parliament and cuts to basic medical aid to illegal immigrants.
With Ms Le Pen still not satisfied, the Gaullist threw in the towel and used executive powers on Monday night to force through social security legislation without a vote.
“I didn’t think she’d dare do it,” Mr Barnier responded shortly afterwards.
The truth is, say observers, Ms Le Pen was simply looking for a pretext to terminate his government.
Mr Barnier could have “handed them Notre-Dame and it wouldn’t change a thing. All they want is for the government to fall,” remarked pro-Macron senate chief Francois Patriat.
Why?
One of the most cogent explanations is that Ms Le Pen didn’t dare disappoint her core electorate, which polls suggest were baying for Mr Barnier’s head. In particular, he had refused to give in to one of their key demands on instant inflation-indexed pensions, an RN electoral pledge.
Some suggest that Ms Le Pen was irked by the fact that Mr Barnier didn’t engage with her earlier and treat her as a serious political partner. That may be partially true but he had gone out of his way to do so in recent days – to the extent other allies on the Right and centre complained she had become his main interlocutor.
Others argue that Ms Le Pen is above all keen to bring down Mr Macron before his term ends.
She has been embroiled in a high-profile embezzlement trial. If found guilty in March, Ms Le Pen could be blocked from participating in France’s next presidential election, scheduled for 2027.
If the president stepped down soon, an election would have to be called within a month, potentially ahead of the verdict in her trial, which could see her banned from holding public office for five years.
“It would make a nice Christmas present,” wrote Le Parisien.
She’s not the only one hoping for an early presidential ballot: Leftist firebrand Jean-Luc Mélenchon has been rubbing his hands since July at the prospect.
“If Michel Barnier’s government falls, I think the question that will really be asked is whether the president should leave,” his lieutenant Manuel Bompard told CNews on Sunday.
However, Mr Macron is under no obligation to do so and on Tuesday night dismissed such talk as “unworthy political fiction”. Nor can he call fresh legislative elections until next June.
And while her camp are crying “victory”, the move risks reversing Ms Le Pen’s painstaking attempts to forge a responsible image as head-of-state-in-the-making rather than figurehead of a protest party.
Worse, she would be joining forces with the Left to do so.
‘If she censors, she cuts herself off from the entire electorate that would enable her to break through the glass ceiling in 2027,” remarked a presidential aide.
On Tuesday, Mr Macron appeared to hold out hope that the vote was not a fait accompli, expressing “confidence in people’s coherence” and because “the interests of the country are higher than those of parties”.
Replacement candidates
Even so, he is said to be mulling several candidates for Mr Barnier’s replacement.
The first is his loyal defence minister Sébastien Lecornu who reportedly held a secret dinner with Ms Le Pen earlier this year. The second is longstanding centrist ally and Modem leader François Bayrou, who could potentially persuade a number of Socialist MPs to forge a parliamentary alliance. Another potential runner is Bernard Cazeneuve, the Socialist ex-prime minister.
A much longer shot could see Socialist Party leader Olivier Faure take the post. On Tuesday, he called on Macron to appoint a “Left-wing prime minister” open “to compromise” with the central bloc, saying he was ready to be that man.
The other option is a technical government potentially run by François Villeroy de Galau, the French central bank chief, or Thierry Breton, an ex-EU commissioner, say reports.
Whatever the solution, time is of the essence, said one ex-Macron minister, adding: “We need a pared-down government before the end of the week, we can’t add procrastination to disorder.”
“Otherwise, the more days go by, the more people will say that the president must go.”
As one longstanding Macron aide told Le Monde: “This dissolution is a slow poison with no antidote.”
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