Why Trump may get off to a slow start

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An incoming president’s first 100 days are typically a time for fast movement on big bills, especially when that president’s party has total control of Congress.

Donald Trump might be in for a much rougher experience next year.

That’s in part thanks to Republicans’ slim hold on the House of Representatives. With three races still unresolved, the best the party can hope for is the same tiny four-vote cushion that caused the GOP major problems this year. Trump has already tapped three Republican lawmakers for his administration, decisions that will temporarily cut his party’s margins even further while special elections are held to fill those seats.

On top of their small majority, Republicans may also have two troublesome tasks to handle next year: funding the government for the rest of the fiscal year and raising the debt limit. House Speaker Mike Johnson has yet to get consensus for his plan to punt federal funding into the spring, but even if he can get the votes to hold off on a spending fight until Trump takes office, the delay won’t make it any easier to get the votes to avoid a shutdown.

It all adds up to lower expectations for the first 100 days of Trump’s second term. House Republicans sound very ambitious talking about their goals for early 2025, but Pennsylvania Rep. Mike Kelly had another, perhaps more appropriate word for them — “aspirational.”

“I wouldn’t worry about if it’s done in the first 100 days, because we might not have enough time to deliver,” Rep. Victoria Spartz, R-Ind., told Semafor.

During their weekly private meeting on Tuesday, House Republicans discussed their concerns about burning too much time on spending bills early next year and losing their window to act on Trump’s agenda.

“We don’t want to chew up the runway,” Rep. Andy Barr, R-Ky., told Semafor.

The debt limit is suspended until Jan. 2, but Congress’ last-ditch deadline to avoid a painful US credit default may get pushed past Trump’s first 100 days if the Treasury Department can draw out its “extraordinary measures” to meet the nation’s credit obligations.

Government spending is a more simple matter; Johnson wants to pass a short-term extension of current funding until March, but it’s not clear yet whether his fellow Republicans are ready to postpone their inevitable internal battles until Trump’s first 100 days. Democrats are likely to be less inclined to help stave off a government shutdown once Trump takes power, so the thin Republican majority could easily set up a crisis come spring.

“It’s a difficult problem to be managed, but it is a problem that can be managed,” House Appropriations Committee Chairman Tom Cole, R-Okla. said.

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Much of Republicans’ policymaking energy so far has focused on their plans to extend the tax cuts they passed during Trump’s first term, using the budgetary tool known as reconciliation to avoid a Senate Democratic filibuster. GOP lawmakers also plan to try to tackle border security and energy policy in their reconciliation bill, though it will be subject to strict vetting under Senate rules that could pare it back.

And even if Republicans can manage to pack their full wish list into a reconciliation bill, it won’t get passed quickly. During their complete control of Washington during the first two years of President Joe Biden’s term, Democrats took more than a year to come to agreement on their own reconciliation bill — now the law known as Inflation Reduction Act.

Beyond reconciliation, House Republicans are eager to push through conservative bills on border security and other issues. Rep. Tim Burchett, R-Tenn., told Semafor that next year’s GOP proposal on immigration “might even be stronger than” the right-leaning border bill that the House struggled over before ultimately passing in early 2023.

Any bill that can make it through Republicans’ slim House majority early next year is likely to see an advantage in the Senate, where Trump’s party will be bogged down for weeks at the beginning of the year trying to confirm his nominees.

But even so, most of what the House passes is headed for a near-guaranteed Senate Democratic filibuster — unless GOP leaders across the Capitol reverse their current stance and try to eliminate the legislative filibuster entirely.

Room for Disagreement

Plenty of House Republicans are gearing up for internal tension next year over government funding, the debt limit and more. But some are more bullish on their ability to unify and get more done than they have this Congress, for one reason — Trump.

No Republican lawmaker wants to be on the receiving end of a disparaging Trump Truth Social post if he or she stands in the way of a request from the president-elect. And senior party members aren’t shy about name-dropping Trump to help dismantle conservative opposition, particularly from leadership antagonists in the Freedom Caucus.

“You have President Trump that will be able to sort of say, ‘Hey, this is the direction we’re going.’ So it does tamp down on” conservative resistance, Rep. Stephanie Bice, R-Okla., told Semafor. “Is it going to work in every situation? No. But I think that’s sort of what most people believe.”

Kadia’s view

House Republicans are enjoying their honeymoon, knowing that it won’t last long.

Party members agree they have to deliver to voters who handed them full control of Washington and avoid damaging infighting. But GOP lawmakers also don’t look close to an agreement on government spending, which will be an early test of their ability to come together.

It’s also quite possible that, even if Trump’s first months in office amount to what Barr described as chewed-up “runway,” voters don’t punish Republicans for it as long as a popular tax bill can pass under reconciliation. Trump has defied most political norms and assumptions during his time in power, and the mythmaking around a president’s first 100 days might be the next to fall.

Notable

• Americans want Trump to prioritize combating inflation in his first 100 days, Reuters reports.

• Trump’s team is readying a flurry of executive actions the new president can sign when he takes office, NBC News reports. Lawmakers tell Semafor they’re hoping to ultimately codify Trump’s executive orders.

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