The Chiefs have a dilemma.
They can try to knock the Broncos out of the playoffs next weekend with a win in Denver, or they can do what they typically do when the last game of the regular season means nothing to their playoff fortunes — rest the starting quarterback and other key starters.
That’s how Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes made his debut, seven years ago. The Week 17 Chiefs-Broncos game meant nothing, so Alex Smith sat and Mahomes played.
Generally speaking, no team should want to see a division rival rolling into town for a one-game, winner-take-all playoff showdown. Division rivals know their opponents well. They don’t get as intimidated as other teams might. And they’d love nothing more than to derail a special season.
The Broncos need simply to win on Sunday to get in. A loss to the Chiefs likely means Denver’s streak of no playoff appearances since winning Super Bowl 50 will extend to nine.
There’s another reason for the Chiefs to consider playing Mahomes and other key starters, if only for a quarter. With the bye secured and the extra rest from playing on Wednesday, it’ll be 24 days between games for Mahomes, Travis Kelce, etc.
What if the Broncos win on Sunday, upend the Bills in the wild-card round (which isn’t a crazy proposition) and then roll into Arrowhead in the divisional round, having played three high-stakes games since the last time Mahomes played?
Once before, the Chiefs rested Mahomes in the last game of the regular season while holding a first-round bye. And when Kansas City hosted Cleveland in the divisional round, the game was closer than expected. Would it have been without three weeks off between games for Mahomes and others?
There’s one last point. Knocking the Broncos out could open the door for the Bengals. And the Bengals have gone toe-to-toe with the Chiefs in the postseason, beating them in the 2021 AFC Championship and almost beating them in the 2022 AFC Championship.
But there’s no guarantee that the Bengals get in with a Broncos loss. They still need the Colts or Dolphins to lose at least once, and the Colts close with the Giants and Jaguars. Thus, it’s possible that both the Broncos and Bengals could be knocked out.
Which would be good for the Chiefs. And for everyone else in the 2024 playoff field.
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