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World Cup 2022: Knockout-round scenarios for each team ahead of final group games

France is the only team so far to clinch advancement to the Round of 16. The USMNT can advance with a win over Iran.

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Christian Pulisic of the United States runs with the ball during the World Cup group B soccer match between England and The United States, at the Al Bayt Stadium in Al Khor , Qatar, Friday, Nov. 25, 2022. (AP Photo/Luca Bruno)

Christian Pulisic of the United States runs with the ball during the World Cup group B soccer match between England and The United States, at the Al Bayt Stadium in Al Khor , Qatar, Friday, Nov. 25, 2022. (AP Photo/Luca Bruno)

Wondering how each team can advance to the knockout rounds of the 2022 World Cup? You’ve come to the right place.

With just one more day of the second round of group stage games to go, it’s becoming clearer and clearer who has realistic chances of making it to the Round of 16. So far, France is the only team that has clinched advancement to the next round while Qatar and Canada have been eliminated after their first two games.

Here’s what you need to know heading into the last set of group stage games on Tuesday. This post will be updated with Groups G and H after those eight teams play their second games of the tournament on Monday.

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Group A

1. Netherlands, 4 points (+2 goal difference)

2. Ecuador, 4 points (+2)

3. Senegal, 3 points (0)

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4. Qatar, 0 points (-4)

Tuesday’s games

  • Netherlands vs. Qatar (10 a.m. ET, Fox)

  • Senegal vs. Ecuador (10 a.m. ET, FS1)

How each Group A team can advance

  • Netherlands: A tie against Qatar clinches advancement for the Dutch. A win over Qatar is good enough to win the group with a better goal difference or more goals scored than Ecuador if Ecuador wins.

  • Ecuador: A tie against Senegal clinches advancement. A win over Senegal is good enough to win the group with a better goal difference or more goals scored than the Netherlands if the Netherlands wins.

  • Senegal: A win against Ecuador clinches advancement. A tie is only good enough if Senegal can have a better goal difference or more goals scored than the Netherlands.

  • Qatar: Cannot advance

Group B

1. England, 4 points (+4 goal difference)

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2. Iran, 3 points (-2)

3. United States, 2 points (0)

4. Wales, 1 point (-2)

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Tuesday’s games

  • England vs. Wales (2 p.m. ET, FS1)

  • United States vs. Iran (2 p.m. ET, Fox)

How each Group B team can advance

  • England: Will win the group with a win over Wales and can clinch advancement with a tie. A tie is good enough to win the group if Iran and the United States tie.

  • Iran: Can advance with a win and can win the group with a win and an England loss. A tie is good enough to advance as long as Wales doesn’t beat England.

  • United States: Can advance with a win over Iran. Can win the group with a win over Iran and a Wales win over England or a five-goal win over Iran and a tie between England and Wales.

  • Wales: Can advance with a win over England and a tie between Iran and the United States.

Group C

1. Poland, 4 points (+2 goal difference)

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2. Argentina, 3 points (+1)

3. Saudi Arabia, 3 points (-1)

4. Mexico, 1 point (-2)

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Wednesday’s games

  • Poland vs. Argentina (2 p.m. ET, Fox)

  • Saudi Arabia vs. Mexico (2 p.m. ET, FS1)

How each Group C team can advance

  • Poland: Will win the group with a win over Argentina. Will advance with a tie. Can advance with a loss to Argentina if Mexico beats Saudi Arabia and has a better goal differential than Mexico.

  • Argentina: Will advance with a win or a tie. Will win the group with a win over Poland and a Mexico win over Saudi Arabia. Can win the group with a win and a Saudi Arabia win if the Saudis have a worse goal differential. Can advance with a tie if Mexico beats Saudi Arabia by two or fewer goals.

  • Saudi Arabia: Will advance with a win. Can win the group with a win and a tie between Poland and Argentina. Can advance with a tie if Poland beats Argentina.

  • Mexico: Will advance with a win and a Poland win over Argentina. Can advance with a win and tie between Argentina and Poland with a better goal differential than Argentina. Can advance with a win and an Argentina win with a better goal differential than Poland.

Group D

1. France, 6 points (+4 goal difference)

2. Australia, 3 points (-2)

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3. Denmark, 1 point (-1)

4. Tunisia, 1 point (-1)

Wednesday’s games

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  • France vs. Tunisia (10 a.m. ET, Fox)

  • Denmark vs. Australia (10 a.m. ET, FS1)

How each Group D team can advance

  • France: Already clinched advancement and can win the group with a tie or win.

  • Australia: Will advance with a win. Can advance with a tie if France beats or ties Tunisia.

  • Denmark: Will advance with a win and a France win or tie with Tunisia.

  • Tunisia: Will advance with a win and tie between Denmark and Australia.

Group E

1. Spain, 4 points (+7 goal difference)

2. Japan, 3 points (0)

3. Costa Rica, 3 points (-6)

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4. Germany, 1 point (-1)

Thursday’s games

  • Spain vs. Japan (2 p.m. ET, Fox)

  • Germany vs. Costa Rica (2 p.m. ET, FS1)

How each Group E team can advance

  • Spain: Will win group with a win or a tie. Can advance with a loss with a superior goal difference if tied with either Costa Rica or Germany.

  • Japan: Will win group with a win. Can advance with a tie and a better goal difference than Costa Rica and Germany if either team finishes with 4 points.

  • Costa Rica: Will win group with a win and a tie between Japan and Spain. Will advance with a win or tie and a Spain win.

  • Germany: Will advance with a win and a Spain win. Will advance with a win and a Spain tie with Japan with a better goal difference or more goals scored than Japan.

Group F

1. Croatia, 4 points (+3 goal difference)

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2. Morocco, 4 points (+2)

3. Belgium, 3 points (-1)

4. Canada, 0 points

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Thursday’s games

  • Croatia vs. Belgium (10 a.m. ET, Fox)

  • Canada vs. Morocco (10 a.m. ET, FS1)

How each Group F team can advance

  • Croatia: Will win group with a win and a Morocco tie or loss. Will win group with a win and a Morocco win and a better goal difference. Will advance with a tie.

  • Morocco: Will win group with a win and a Croatia tie or loss. Will win group with a win and a Croatia win and a better goal difference. Will advance with a tie and a Croatia win or tie.

  • Belgium: Will win group with a win and a Morocco tie or loss. Will advance with a tie and a Morocco loss.

  • Canada: Cannot advance

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