Variety‘s Awards Circuit is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the the official predictions for the Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
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2024 Emmy Predictions: All Categories
Weekly Commentary (Updated April 19, 2024): The competition is intensifying as the Emmy race progresses.
Amazon Prime Video is stepping up its game with vigorous campaigns for its leading drama series contenders, “Fallout” and “Mr. and Mrs. Smith.” The streamer isn’t limiting its push to dramas alone; it’s also promoting its comedies, particularly “Gen V,” and the miniseries “Expats.” This strategic push across different genres could position them for its most successful showing at the Emmys yet, provided all the strategic elements fall into place.
FX is not far behind in its bid for Emmy glory, leading strong with its critically acclaimed comedy “The Bear” and the visually striking limited series “Shо̄gun.” Both shows are expected to attract a significant number of noms, potentially dominating their respective categories. “The Bear,” celebrated for its unique blend of humor and drama, has already made waves in the industry with the first season, while “Shо̄gun,” with its rich historical narrative and production quality, stands out as the frontrunner in its space, in addition to the anthology series “Fargo.”
As the awards season continues, both Amazon Prime Video and FX are poised to leverage their high-profile series, which have garnered considerable attention and acclaim. This year’s race is shaping up to be one of the most competitive yet, with multiple networks and platforms vying for recognition across a range of programs.
This week you’ll find the first set of projections for guest acting for both drama and comedy races, along with documentary and variety specials.
Upcoming For Your Consideration (FYC) events: Max’s “The Jinx Part Two” in New York and “Curb Your Enthusiasm” in Los Angeles; ABC’s “Not Dead Yet” (April 19), Apple TV’s “Slow Horses” and “Girls State” (April 20); CBS’ “The Late Show with Stephen Colbert,” Apple’s “The Super Models” and Netflix’s “Black Mirror” (April 21)
Top 4 nomination leaders for networks: FX and Max (28), Netflix (27), Apple TV+ (23)
Top 4 nomination leaders for series: “The Bear” (15), “The Morning Show” (12), “The Crown” (10), “The Gilded Age” (8)
Note: Not all category and genre placements are yet to be confirmed.
Read: All Primetime Emmy predictions in every category on Variety’s Awards Circuit.
*** = Predicted Winner
Drama Series
“The Crown” (Netflix) ***
“The Curse” (Showtime)
“Fallout” (Prime Video)
“The Gilded Age” (Max)
“Loki” (Disney+)
“The Morning Show” (Apple TV+)
“Mr. and Mrs. Smith” (Prime Video)
“3 Body Problem” (Netflix)
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Comedy Series
“Abbott Elementary” (ABC)
“The Bear” (FX) ***
“Curb Your Enthusiasm” (Max)
“Gen V” (Prime Video)
“The Gentlemen” (Netflix)
“Hacks” (Max)
“Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu)
“What We Do in the Shadows” (FX)
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Limited Series
“Baby Reindeer” (Netflix)
“Fargo” (FX)
“Lessons in Chemistry” (Apple TV+)
“Shо̄gun” (FX) ***
“True Detective: Night Country” (Max)
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Television Movie
“The Caine Mutiny Court-Martial” (Paramount+)
“Mr. Monk’s Last Case” (Peacock)
“Quiz Lady” (Hulu)
“Red, White and Royal Blue” (Prime Video) ***
“Scoop” (Netflix)
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Lead Actor (Drama)
Nathan Fielder
“The Curse” (Showtime)
Donald Glover
“Mr. & Mrs. Smith” (Prime Video)
Walton Goggins
“Fallout” (Prime Video)
Tom Hiddleston
“Loki” (Disney+)
Gary Oldman ***
“Slow Horses” (Apple TV+)
Dominic West
“The Crown” (Netflix)
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Lead Actor (Comedy)
Larry David
“Curb Your Enthusiasm” (Max)
Steve Martin
“Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu)
Theo James
“The Gentlemen” (Netflix)
Martin Short
“Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu)
Jeremy Allen White ***
“The Bear” (FX)
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Lead Actor (Limited)
Matt Bomer
“Fellow Travelers” (Showtime)
Richard Gadd
“Baby Reindeer” (Netflix)
Jon Hamm ***
“Fargo” (FX)
Cosmo Jarvis
“Shо̄gun” (FX)
Hiroyuki Sanada
“Shо̄gun” (FX)
Andrew Scott
“Ripley” (Netflix)
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Guest Actor (Drama)
Will Arnett
“The Morning Show” (Apple TV+)
Michael Braugher
“The Gilded Age” (Max)
Michael Emerson ***
“Fallout” (Prime Video)
Rob Morgan
“Winning Time: Rise of the Lakers Dynasty” (Max)
John Turturro
“Mr. & Mrs. Smith” (Prime Video)
Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon!
Guest Actor (Comedy)
Jon Bernthal
“The Bear” (FX)
Mel Brooks
“Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu)
Ryan Gosling ***
“Saturday Night Live” (NBC)
John Mulaney
“The Bear” (FX)
Bob Odenkirk
“The Bear” (FX)
Jerry Seinfeld
“Curb Your Enthusiasm” (Max)
Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon!
Lead Actress (Drama)
Jennifer Aniston
“The Morning Show” (Apple TV+)
Carrie Coon
“The Gilded Age” (Max)
Maya Erskine
“Mr. & Mrs. Smith” (Prime Video)
Imelda Staunton ***
“The Crown” (Netflix)
Emma Stone
“The Curse” (Showtime)
Reese Witherspoon
“The Morning Show” (Apple TV+)
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Lead Actress (Comedy)
Quinta Brunson
“Abbott Elementary” (ABC)
Ayo Edebiri
“The Bear” (FX)
Maya Rudolph
“Loot” (Apple TV+)
Jean Smart ***
“Hacks” (Max)
Kristen Wiig
“Palm Royale” (Apple TV+)
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Lead Actress (Limited)
Jodie Foster
“True Detective: Night Country” (Max)
Brie Larson
“Lessons in Chemistry” (Apple TV+)
Anna Sawai ***
“Shо̄gun” (FX)
Juno Temple
“Fargo” (FX)
Naomi Watts
“Feud: Capote vs. the Swans” (FX)
Kate Winslet
“The Regime” (Max)
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Guest Actress (Drama)
Olivia Colman
“The Crown” (Netflix)
Claire Foy ***
“The Crown” (Netflix)
Marcia Gay Harden
“The Morning Show” (Apple TV+)
Natalie Morales
“The Morning Show” (Apple TV+)
Sarah Paulson
“Mr. & Mrs. Smith” (Prime Video)
Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon!
Guest Actress (Comedy)
Jamie Lee Curtis ***
“The Bear” (FX)
Olivia Colman
“The Bear” (FX)
Ayo Edebiri
“Saturday Night Live” (NBC)
Da’Vine Joy Randolph
“Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu)
Emma Stone
“Saturday Night Live” (NBC)
Kristen Wiig
“Saturday Night Live” (NBC)
Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon!
Supporting Actor (Drama)
Khalid Abdalla
“The Crown” (Netflix)
Billy Crudup ***
“The Morning Show” (Apple TV+)
Salim Daw
“The Crown” (Netflix)
Mark Duplass
“The Morning Show” (Apple TV+)
Jon Hamm
“The Morning Show” (Apple TV+)
Nathan Lane
“The Gilded Age” (Max)
Jonathan Pryce
“The Crown” (Netflix)
Benny Safdie
“The Curse” (Showtime)
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Supporting Actor (Comedy)
Lionel Boyce
“The Bear” (FX)
Paul W. Downs
“Hacks” (Max)
Richard Lewis
“Curb Your Enthusiasm” (Max)
Ebon Moss-Bachrach ***
“The Bear” (FX)
Oliver Platt
“The Bear” (FX)
Paul Rudd
“Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu)
Tyler James Williams
“Abbott Elementary” (ABC)
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Supporting Actor (Limited)
Tadanobu Asano
“Shо̄gun” (FX)
Jonathan Bailey ***
“Fellow Travelers” (Showtime)
Robert Downey Jr.
“The Sympathizer” (Max)
Christopher Eccleston
“True Detective: Night Country” (Max)
Johnny Flynn
“Ripley” (Netflix)
John Hawkes
“True Detective: Night Country” (Max)
Lewis Pullman
“Lessons in Chemistry” (Apple TV+)
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Supporting Actress (Drama)
Christine Baranski
“The Gilded Age” (Max)
Nicole Beharie
“The Morning Show” (Apple TV+)
Elizabeth Debicki ***
“The Crown” (Netflix)
Greta Lee
“The Morning Show” (Apple TV+)
Lesley Manville
“The Crown” (Netflix)
Audra McDonald
“The Gilded Age” (Max)
Julianna Margulies
“The Morning Show” (Apple TV+)
Cynthia Nixon
“The Gilded Age” (Max)
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Supporting Actress (Comedy)
Liza Colón-Zayas
“The Bear” (FX)
Hannah Einbinder
“Hacks” (Max)
Abby Elliott
“The Bear” (FX)
Janelle James
“Abbott Elementary” (ABC)
Sheryl Lee Ralph
“Abbott Elementary” (ABC)
Meryl Streep ***
“Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu)
Lisa Ann Walter
“Abbott Elementary” (ABC)
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Supporting Actress (Limited)
Diane Lane
“Feud: Capote vs. the Swans” (FX)
Lily Gladstone
“Under the Bridge” (Hulu)
Moeka Hoshi
“Shо̄gun” (FX)
Jennifer Jason Leigh
“Fargo” (FX)
Aja Naomi King
“Lessons in Chemistry” (Apple TV+)
Sandra Oh
“The Sympathizer” (Max)
Kali Reis ***
“True Detective: Night Country” (Max)
Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon!
Talk Series
“The Daily Show” (Comedy Central)
“Jimmy Kimmel Live!” (ABC)
“Late Night with Seth Meyers” (NBC) ***
“The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon” (NBC)
Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon!
Scripted Variety Series
“Last Week Tonight with John Oliver” (Max) ***
“Saturday Night Live” (NBC)
Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon!
Reality or Competition Program
“The Amazing Race” (CBS)
“RuPaul’s Drag Race” (MTV)
“Survivor” (CBS)
“The Traitors” (Peacock) ***
“The Voice” (NBC)
Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon!
Game Show
“Family Feud” (Syndication)
“Game Changer” (Dropout)
“Jeopardy” (Syndication)
“The Price is Right” (CBS)
“Wheel of Fortune” (Syndication) ***
Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon!
Unstructured Reality
“Love on the Spectrum” (Netflix)
“RuPaul’s Drag Race: Untucked” (MTV) ***
“Selling Sunset” (Netflix)
“Vanderpump Rules” (Bravo)
“Welcome to Wrexham” (Hulu)
Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon!
Documentary (Series)
“American Nightmare” (Netflix)
“Beckham” (Netflix)
“The Jinx: The Life and Deaths of Robert Durst” (Max)
“Quiet on Set: The Dark Side of TV” (Investigation Discovery) ***
“Thank You, Goodnight: The Bon Jovi Story” (Hulu)
Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon!
Documentary (Special)
“Albert Brooks: Defending My Life” (Max)
“Girls State” (Apple TV+)
“Jim Henson Idea Man” (Disney+)
“The Greatest Night in Pop” (Netflix) ***
“STEVE! (martin) a documentary in 2 pieces” (Apple TV+)
Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon!
Exceptional Merit
“Going to Mars: The Nikki Giovanni Project” (Max)
“The Pigeon Tunnel” (Apple TV+)
“Stamped from the Beginning” (Netflix)
Animated Program
“Archer” (FX)
“Blue Eye Samurai” (Netflix)
“Bob’s Burgers” (Fox)
“The Simpsons” (Fox)
“X-Men ’97” (Disney+) ***
Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon!
Variety Special (Live)
“The Apple Music Super Bowl LVIII Halftime Show Starring Usher” (CBS)
“Billy Joel: The 100th Live at Madison Square Garden” (CBS)
“The Oscars” (ABC) ***
“The 66th Annual Grammy Awards” (CBS)
“The 76th Tony Awards” (CBS)
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Variety Special (Pre-Recorded)
“Dave Chappelle: The Dreamer” (Netflix) ***
“Dick Van Dyke 98 Years of Magic” (CBS)
“Ramy Youssef: More Feelings” (Max)
“Ricky Gervais: Armageddon” (Netflix)
“Trevor Noah: Where Was I” (Netflix)
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More Information (Primetime Emmy Awards)
2024 Emmy Awards Calendar and Timeline (all dates are subject to change)
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Eligibility period: June 1, 2023 – May 31, 2024
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Feb. 29: Submissions open
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May 9: Deadline for programs that identify as Primetime programming to upload all entry materials.
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June 13: Nominations-round voting begins
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June 24: Nominations-round voting ends at 10:00 p.m. PT
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June 28 – July 8: Voting for peer group-specific top ten rounds panels (if applicable)
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July 17: Primetime Emmy nominations are announced.
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July 24: Deadline for errors and omissions to the nominations.
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August 5: Find-round videos available for viewing.
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August 15: Final-round voting begins.
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August 26: Final-round voting ends at 10:00 p.m. PST.
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Sept. 7-8: Creative Arts Emmy Awards and Governors Gala
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Sunday, Sept. 15: 76th Primetime Emmy Awards to air on ABC.
Emmy Awards Predictions
Other Awards Predictions
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Talk Series |
Reality Competition Program |
Animated Program |
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Scripted Variety |
Game Show |
Character Voice-Over Performance |
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Variety Special (Live) |
Host for a Reality or Competition Program |
Narrator |
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Variety Special (Pre-Recorded) |
Structured Reality |
Documentary (Series) |
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Directing (Series, Special) |
Unstructured Reality |
Documentary (Special) |
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Writing (Series, Special) |
Directing (Reality Program) |
Hosted Nonfiction (Series or Special) |
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Music (Limited, Movie, Special, Series, Documentary, Direction, Theme Music, Lyrics, Supervision) |
Main Title Design |
Writing (Nonfiction) |
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Short Form Series |
Short Form (Actor/Actress) |
Exceptional Merit |
About the Primetime Emmy Awards
The Primetime Emmy Awards, commonly known as the Emmys, are awarded by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences (ATAS). Established in 1949, these celebrate outstanding achievements in American primetime television. The Emmys are categorized into three divisions: the Primetime Emmy Awards for performance and production excellence, the Primetime Creative Arts Emmy Awards recognizing achievements in artistry and craftsmanship, and the Primetime Engineering Emmy Awards, which honor significant engineering and technological advancements. The eligibility period typically extends from June 1 to May 31 each year. The Television Academy, which hosts the Emmys, consists of over 20,000 members across 30 professional peer groups, including performers, directors, producers, art directors, artisans and executives.
Directing (Drama)
“The Crown” (Netflix) ***
Stephen Daldry, “Sleep, Dearie Sleep”
“Fallout” (Prime Video)
Jonathan Nolan, “The End”
“The Gilded Age” (Max)
Michael Engler, “You Don’t Even Like Opera”
“The Morning Show” (Apple TV+)
Mimi Leder, “The Overview Effect”
“Mr. & Mrs. Smith” (Prime Video)
Donald Glover, “A Breakup”
“Mr. & Mrs. Smith” (Prime Video)
Hiro Murai, “First Date”
“3 Body Problem” (Netflix)
Derek Tsang, “Countdown”
Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon!
Directing (Comedy)
“The Bear” (FX)
Joanna Calo, “Sundae”
“The Bear” (FX) ***
Christopher Storer, “Forks”
“The Bear” (FX)
Ramy Youssef, “Honeydew”
“Curb Your Enthusiasm” (Max)
Jeff Schaffer, “No Lessons Learned”
“The Gentlemen” (Netflix)
Guy Ritchie, “Refined Aggression”
“Hacks” (Max)
Lucia Aniello, “Just For Laughs”
Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon!
Directing (Limited/TV Movie)
“Baby Reindeer” (Netflix)
Weronika Tofilska, “Episode 1”
“Lessons in Chemistry” (Apple TV+)
Sarah Adina Smith, “Her and Him”
“Masters of the Air” (Apple TV+)
Cary Joji Fukunaga, “Part One”
“Ripley” (Netflix)
Steven Zaillian, series
“Shо̄gun” (FX) ***
Frederick E.O. Toye, “Chapter Ten: A Dream of a Dream”
“Shо̄gun” (FX)
Jonathan van Tulleken, “Chapter One: Anjin”
“True Detective: Night Country” (Max)
Issa López, series
Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon!
Best of Variety
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