(Bloomberg) — Chinese shares rose by the most in a month on fresh signs of an economic recovery, forming a bright spot in Asia. Gold jumped to a record high.
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Benchmarks gained in mainland China and South Korea, while Japanese equities fell after a report showed confidence among the country’s large manufacturers weakened slightly for the first time in four quarters. US futures edged higher in Asia, with markets in Australia and Hong Kong shut for a holiday.
China’s CSI 300 Index jumped as much as 1.8%, the most since Feb. 29, as a rebound in manufacturing activity reinforced hopes that the nation’s economic recovery may be starting to gain traction.
“Emerging optimism about China is real,” said Vishnu Varathan, chief economist for Asia ex-Japan at Mizuho Bank in Singapore. It may gain traction given “corresponding optimism elsewhere in Asia that dovetails with an upturn in global manufacturing,” he said.
Global equities rose over 18% in the previous two quarters, driven by bets on interest-rate cuts and artificial intelligence stocks. Those themes will remain front and center of investor’s minds as markets head into the new period.
Treasury yields and a Bloomberg index of the dollar inched lower after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said Friday that the central bank’s preferred gauge of inflation was “pretty much in line with our expectations.” Powell added that it wouldn’t be appropriate to lower rates until officials are sure inflation is in check. Investors are betting the US central bank will make that first cut in June.
The core personal consumption expenditures price index — which excludes volatile food and energy costs — rose 0.3% in February after climbing in the previous month, marking its biggest back-to-back gain in a year. The measure is up 2.8% from a year earlier, still above the Fed’s 2% target.
“You have a Fed that at the moment is highly data dependent,” said Matthew Luzzetti, chief US economist at Deutsche Bank. “Until we get either confirmation or a different view on what the data are going to be, it’s kind of hard to gauge exactly where we end up from a Fed policy perspective.”
In Asia, Japanese automobile stocks took a beating, led by Toyota Motor Corp., following weak industry confidence data damped sentiment and investors booked profits in the new fiscal year.
A plunge in auto production caused by a temporary halt by Daihatsu Motor Co. dragged down related sectors, Bloomberg Economics’ Taro Kimura wrote in a note on the Bank of Japan’s Tankan survey. The sentiment reading for large makers of motor vehicles led declines, sliding by 15 points.
In commodities, iron ore fell to the lowest in 10 months as China’s years-long property crisis continued to pressure prices. Gold rose to a record on indications the Fed is getting closer to cutting interest rates and on deepening geopolitical tensions.
Elsewhere, Bitcoin fell after earlier trading above $71,000. The largest digital currency has jumped almost 70% this year amid persistent demand for US exchange-traded funds holding the token.
Key events this week:
US construction spending, ISM Manufacturing, Monday
Bank of Canada issues business outlook and survey of consumer expectations, Monday
Eurozone S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, Tuesday
France S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, Tuesday
Germany S&P Global / BME Manufacturing PMI, CPI, Tuesday
India HSBC/S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, Tuesday
Mexico international reserves, Tuesday
South Korea CPI, Tuesday
Spain unemployment, Tuesday
UK S&P Global / CIPS Manufacturing PMI, Tuesday
US factory orders, light vehicle sales, JOLTS job openings, Tuesday
Brazil industrial production, Wednesday
Eurozone CPI, unemployment, Wednesday
Hong Kong retail sales, Wednesday
US ISM Services, Wednesday
Eurozone S&P Global Services PMI, PPI, Thursday
India services PMI, Thursday
US initial jobless claims, trade, Thursday
Eurozone retail sales, Friday
France industrial production, Friday
Germany factory orders, Friday
Hong Kong PMI, Friday
India rate decision, Friday
Japan household spending, Friday
Philippines CPI, Friday
Russia GDP, Friday
Singapore retail sales, Friday
South Korea current account balance, Friday
US unemployment, nonfarm payrolls, Friday
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
S&P 500 futures rose 0.4% as of 2:53 p.m. Tokyo time
Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.6%
Japan’s Topix fell 1.7%
The Shanghai Composite rose 0.8%
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
The euro was little changed at $1.0785
The Japanese yen was little changed at 151.38 per dollar
The offshore yuan was little changed at 7.2524 per dollar
The Australian dollar was little changed at $0.6517
The British pound was little changed at $1.2627
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin fell 2.3% to $69,247.6
Ether fell 3.3% to $3,513.26
Bonds
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.4% to $83.49 a barrel
Spot gold rose 1.5% to $2,262.66 an ounce
This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from John Cheng and Aya Wagatsuma.
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