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Could Scottie Scheffler win the grand slam? It’s not likely, but it’s absolutely possible

In Sports
April 26, 2024
Why is this man smiling? Because he's the best at what he does. (Keyur Khamar/PGA TOUR via Getty Images)

Why is this man smiling? Because he’s the best at what he does. (Keyur Khamar/PGA TOUR via Getty Images)

It’s a long way from here to mid-July, but Scottie Scheffler has a chance to do something Tiger Woods, Jack Nicklaus and Arnold Palmer never did. Scheffler, who won the Masters earlier this month, has the opportunity to claim a grand slam — all four majors in a season — and erase any doubt about who owns the post-Tiger era.

Right from the jump: Yes, this is ridiculously early speculation. Technically, every player who wins the Masters has the chance to pull off a grand slam. But with all due respect to the Danny Willetts and Trevor Immelmans of the world, few green jacket winners — and none since Woods’ early-00s domination — have rolled back down Magnolia Lane on such a heater.

Scheffler has won 10 times on Tour in the last two-plus years. He’s won two times in the past two weeks. He’s won four of his last five events, and placed T2 in the fifth. He’s riding a streak of 40 consecutive rounds of par or better, dating back to the 2023 Tour Championship. And he’s beating the best in the world while he’s doing it; according to the PGA Tour, in his last seven victories, eight or more of the top 10 ranked players in the world have been in the field.

Those are the kinds of numbers that make you think something special might be happening here. His record at the PGA Tour is strong — three T8-or-better finishes, including last year’s T2, against one missed cut. That’s good enough to put him at +350 odds — not quite Scottie-vs.-the-field territory, but within sight of it.

At BetMGM, Scheffler is currently +4000 — that’s 40-1 — to win all four majors. That’s an absurdly low line, likely in part to protect the house against casual bettors parachuting in the way they used to for Tiger Woods. He’s -135 to stay at only one major this year, but +160 — slightly better than even odds — to win at least one more major, and +750 to win three of the four.

Winning a second major right after the first of the season isn’t impossible, but it’s difficult. Over the last five years, only one of the then-current green jacket winners even threw a scare into the leaderboard. After they won the Masters that year, Woods (2019) missed the cut, Dustin Johnson (2020) placed T2, Hideki Matsuyama (2021) placed T23, Scheffler (2022) missed the cut, and Jon Rahm (2023) placed T50.

The most notable recent run at a grand slam came in 2015, when Jordan Spieth won the Masters and the U.S. Open and then missed out on a playoff in the Open Championship by a stroke. (The PGA Tour was held in August that year.) Spieth had a two-month break between the Masters and the U.S. Open, and was playing some of the best golf of the era — he won five times that season — but even he couldn’t manage to close the deal.

If you’re looking for specific Scheffler negatives, there’s this: He hasn’t won a tournament in any year after April. His record in the Open Championship is unremarkable — only one T8, and finishes outside the top 20 the last two years. Plus, there’s the small matter of the fact that he’s due to become a father any day now, with all the likely “distractions” that will bring. (Yes, a child is a life-changing blessing, but bettors aren’t big on that kind of sentimentality.)

Look, the odds are very good that Scheffler won’t take down the grand slam this season. But how much are you willing to bet against him?

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