JPMorgan’s Kolanovic Is Last Prominent Bear as Mike Wilson Folds

(Bloomberg) — There’s just one big bear left in Wall Street’s forest of stock market opinions after Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson capitulated on Monday while JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s Marko Kolanovic held firm in his gloomy outlook on equities.

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Kolanovic reiterated his view in a note to clients late Monday, urging them not to buy stocks, while acknowledging that this negative outlook has hurt JPMorgan’s model portfolio allocation over the past year as global equity markets rose to record highs. He cited a litany of reasons for maintaining his pessimistic position, including high valuations, the likelihood rates will remain restrictive for longer, elevated inflation readings, consumer stress, and geopolitical uncertainty.

“A negative stance on equities has hurt the performance of our multi-asset portfolio over the past year,” he acknowledged, while adding, “we do not see equities as attractive investments at the moment and we don’t see a reason to change our stance.”

Kolanovic is now the final outlier among equity strategists at Wall Street’s major banks after Morgan Stanley’s Wilson on Monday turned positive on the outlook for US stocks. He now sees the S&P 500 Index rising to 5,400 by June 2025, a significant about-face from his prediction of a 15% decline by December based on his year-end target of 4,500.

Among the big Wall Street banks, JPMorgan has the lowest year-end target for the S&P 500 at 4,200, implying a drop of more than 20% from Monday’s closing level.

After JPMorgan, the second-lowest year-end estimate is from Citigroup Inc. at 5,100, suggesting modest downside from current levels, with Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s call at 5,200 also signaling no more room for gains. But neither of those banks’ top equity strategists, Scott Chronert or David Kostin, have issued warnings of an impending rout like those from the team at JPMorgan.

Meanwhile, peers at Bank of America Corp. and Wells Fargo & Co. see the S&P 500 ending the year with further gain at 5,400 and 5,535, respectively. Both ratcheted up their original views for this year as the US stock market extended its climb on economic and corporate earnings strength and continued excitement around artificial intelligence.

Kolanovic’s outlook on US equities is failing to materialize for a third-straight year. The S&P 500 Index is up 11% in 2024 despite his call for a drop. He also was pessimistic through last year’s 24% rally, and was bullish through most of 2022’s 19% wipeout.

The strategist reiterated his defensive portfolio tilt, recommending investors be underweight in equities and credit and overweight in commodities and cash.

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