A new tropical disturbance in the Atlantic Ocean grabbed the attention of forecasters Monday, with the National Hurricane Center saying it has a low chance of becoming a tropical storm at this time.
The tropical wave is a few hundred miles east-southeast of the Windward Islands. The wave has produced disorganized showers and thunderstorms so far, but the atmosphere is primed for slow development.
“Environmental conditions appear conducive for slow development once the wave reaches the western Caribbean late this week,” the NHC wrote in the Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook.
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“We do have one disturbance that we’re watching – a 20% chance of seeing this tropical wave move across parts of the Yucatán Peninsula and push into the Bay of Campeche,” explained Meteorologist Kiyana Lewis. “Once again, it’s only a 20% chance within the next seven days or so, but it is a chance. So, we’re going to be watching that very closely.
Meteorologists will watch for the disorganized thunderstorms to develop around a closed low-level center or a warm-core low.
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If it does develop into a tropical storm, it will be named Beryl. A tropical storm has sustained winds blowing between 35 and 74 mph. FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross said that he doesn’t expect too much impact along the U.S. Gulf Coast as yet.
“The Hurricane Center is giving the disturbance a low chance of developing at this point,” Norcross said. “The timeframe we’re talking about is over next weekend. A blocking high-pressure system is forecast to set up across the southern U.S. This should keep any development well to the south.”
The wave will have to survive intact through incoming Saharan dust though, which is why chances of development are low.
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“The tropics are on pause for now. Saharan dust is dominating the tropical Atlantic. Even though robust tropical disturbances are moving off Africa, they can’t develop as they move west,” Norcross said. “When Saharan dust is present in the atmosphere, it creates a dry and stable layer, making it difficult for thunderstorms to organize and grow into tropical storms or hurricanes. This phenomenon is called the Saharan Air Layer (SAL).”
Ninety-seven percent of the Atlantic Hurricane Season still remains ahead of us.
Original article source: New tropical disturbance being tracked in Atlantic
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