Hello there.
Well, that was interesting, wasn’t it? The election was trundling along pretty normally, then we get a momentous week that changed the shape of the race and the stakes involved.
First, Joe Biden squandered his a chance to prove he has the vitality, vigor and suitability for a second term in the White House, with a debate performance which only underlined concerns that he is too old for the job.
Just as people were processing the debate debacle, the supreme court announced that presidents have broad immunity from criminal prosecution for almost anything they do in office. It threw Trump’s recent conviction, and his other court cases, into jeopardy – and could embolden Trump to act without restraint should he win a second term.
We’ll take a look at all that (gulp), but first here’s what else has been going on in the election.
Here’s what you need to know
1. Trump sentencing delayed
The former president was set to be sentenced on 11 July, after he was found guilty on 34 charges of falsifying business records to hide hush-money payments to Stormy Daniels. But after that supreme court decision, his sentencing has been pushed back to 18 September, as the judge in the case decides whether Trump has immunity that could abort the conviction.
2. Trump rises with younger voters
Trump has opened up a lead over Biden among young voters, according to an AtlasIntel poll. The ex-president leads the current president by 15 points among 18-to-29-year-olds, according to the survey conducted by one of the most accurate pollsters in the 2020 election. It was conducted between 26 and 28 June, so some people were polled after the debate. A smattering of other polls paint a mixed picture – some show support for Biden falling since the debate, others show him more or less holding steady.
3. The money pours in
The Biden campaign and the Democratic National Committee raised $264m in the second quarter of 2024, including $127m in June, which should buoy up the president somewhat. Trump, however, raked in $331m – about 72% of the $454m he owes, and cannot pay, for a civil fraud case earlier this year.
Could Biden have just crowned Trump king?
On Monday the supreme court dropped a verdict that horrified many Americans: it ruled that US presidents are entitled to broad immunity from prosecution related to acts they commit in office.
The 6-3 ruling by the majority conservative court, three of whom were nominated by Trump, means that some of the charges relating to Trump’s efforts to overturn the 2020 election likely cannot be prosecuted.
The ruling that presidents have “absolute immunity” for actions that fall within the scope of the office’s “core constitutional powers” has some worrying about what Trump, who has said he would persecute political opponents if re-elected, might get up to in a second term.
Much of the reaction to the decision has been scathing, with Sonia Sotomayor, one of the liberal supreme court justices who opposed the ruling, saying the decision will make a president a “king above the law”.
While Trump, who has been obsessed with the royal family for decades (apparently he attempted to woo Princess Diana, who subsequently told a friend that the then future president gave her “the creeps”) will be pretty pleased with that characterization, the timing wasn’t pretty for any Trump critics.
The decision made clear the significance of Biden’s lackluster debate performance, in which the president spent much of his 90 minutes on stage staring into the middle distance, mouth agape, like a drunk reading the menu board in a kebab shop. When Biden did speak, his voice was shaky, and he appeared to lose his train of thought at times.
A series of polls in recent days has hinted at how Biden’s performance was perceived, though a really comprehensive gold-standard national poll has yet to be released. A Yahoo News/YouGov survey found that 60% of Americans believe he is not “fit to serve another term as president”, while among Democratic voters, 41% said Biden should be not be the presidential nominee in November, according to a poll by USA Today/Suffolk University.
The urgency has only stepped up after that supreme court decision. On Tuesday, Reuters reported that there are 25 Democratic members of the House of Representatives ready to call for Biden to step down if he continues to look shaky, and two Democratic Congress members – both in swing districts – have said they believe Biden will lose to Trump in November. Prominent news organizations, including the New York Times, have called for Biden to be replaced, as have numerous pundits. Biden has said nothing to indicate he will step down, and plans to meet with Democratic governors today to shore up support.
Much of this is because of what that supreme court decision could mean for a Trump presidency. Trump has repeatedly told us what he will do in a second term: he has said he will subject Liz Cheney, one of the few Republicans who is critical of him, to a “televised military tribunal” on uncertain charges, and has said he will act as a dictator on “day one” of his presidency.
In June, Trump said that if elected he “has every right to go after” Joe Biden and his family – and the supreme court essentially gave him the green light to do that, and more.
Justice Sotomayer, writing in a dissent to the court’s decision, said that the ruling means when a president “uses his official powers in any way, under the majority’s reasoning, he now will be insulated from criminal prosecution”.
“Orders the Navy’s Seal Team 6 to assassinate a political rival?” Sotomayer wrote.
“Immune.”
It’s serious, in other words. Democrats find themselves in the biggest crisis of this election, just as the stakes have raised immeasurably.
Lie of the week
In last week’s debate, Donald Trump falsely claimed Democrats “will take the life of a child in the eighth month, the ninth month and even after birth”, specifically calling out the former governor of Virginia for comments on later abortions.
Ralph Northam, then the Democratic governor of Virginia, gave an answer in a 2019 interview that Trump and other Republicans have seized on, about what would happen when a baby is born with severe deformities. At no point did Northam say a baby would be killed after birth, and a Virginia news outlet, 13NewsNow, debunked Trump’s debate claims about Northam’s comments.
To be clear: after a child is born, if they are killed, that is murder, or infanticide. This is illegal in all US states (and the world over). Democrats are not pushing policies to kill babies after they are born.
Later abortions, often referred to as “late-term” abortions by Republicans though the term is unspecific and confusing, are rare. Less than 1% of abortions in the US are performed at or past 21 weeks of pregnancy, Centers for Disease Control (CDC) data shows. This is often because of fetal abnormalities that aren’t discovered until later in gestation.
– Rachel Leingang, misinformation reporter
Milwaukee braces for an influx of Republicans
In less than two weeks, Milwaukee will temporarily become the center of the American political universe, when Republicans open their national convention at the Fiserv Forum downtown.
The GOP did well to choose Wisconsin’s largest city as the venue for its first proper political convention since 2016 – the state has acted as the tipping point in multiple presidential elections, including Joe Biden’s victory in 2020, and Trump’s triumph four years prior.
The Fiserv Forum, which is best known as the home of the Milwaukee Bucks NBA team, is now wrapped in a banner welcoming delegates to the convention. Barriers are lined up nearby, waiting to be deployed to close roads. Residents are paying close attention to the contours of the security zone, which threatens to snarl traffic and disrupt life for people in and around it.
Milwaukee is a Democratic stronghold in a purple state, and is likely to vote for Biden once again. With Wisconsin’s countryside tilting towards Trump, the real question is how the state’s suburban communities will lean. Democrats have put up good numbers there in recent elections – but all signs point to this being an election like few before it.
– Chris Stein is the US politics live blogger for Guardian US
Worst week
This guy just can’t catch a break. Rudy Giuliani, Trump’s erstwhile lawyer, hair-dye fan and all-round weird guy, lost his license to practice law in New York on Tuesday. It comes after he was suspended by WABC, a New York radio station, in May, after he used his show to spread conspiracy theories about the 2020 election. It also comes after Giuliani declared bankruptcy in December, after a court ordered him to pay nearly $150m to two election workers he defamed. Phew!
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