The tropics are heating up, and one system became a tropical depression Friday afternoon with maximum sustained winds of 35 mph, according to the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center
Once it reaches tropical storm status, it will become Beryl, the second named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.
➤ Spaghetti models for Tropical Depression 2
According to the hurricane center’s 5 p.m. forecast, the center of Tropical Depression Two was located near latitude 9.1 North, longitude 41.9 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 17 mph. A relatively quick westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, the system is expected to move across the Windward Islands late Sunday night and Monday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm tonight or early Saturday and a hurricane late Sunday night or Monday.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb.
AccuWeather forecasters said the system, currently designated as Tropical Depression Two, could reach hurricane status by the time it reaches the Windward Islands.
Hurricane and tropical storm watches will likely be issued for portions of the Windward Islands late Friday or early Saturday, according to the Hurricane Center.
The system also “has the potential to ramp up quickly — perhaps to a major hurricane (sustained winds of 111-129 mph).”
Two other tropical waves in the Atlantic basin, including Invest 94L in the Caribbean, currently have low chances for development, according to the Hurricane Center.
➤ Spaghetti models for Invest 94L
Why isn’t Saharan dust preventing storms from developing?
Saharan dust, which is moving west over the Atlantic, makes it difficult for storms to develop as it steals the moist air storms need to develop.
But Invest 95L is in the “sweet spot” as it travels west across the Atlantic.
“This feature is tracking south of a zone of dry air, dust and stiff disruptive breezes called wind shear,” AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said.
“Should the system stay in the moist zone and away from large land areas, it has the potential to ramp up quickly — perhaps to a major hurricane (sustained winds of 111-129 mph),” AccuWeather said.
Historically high ocean temperatures aren’t helping.
“This exceptional warmth may also trigger the rapid strengthening of tropical systems as the season progresses. When rapid strengthening occurs near land, it may cause dangers to lives and property to increase exponentially with little notice,” AccuWeather said.
Recent tropical activity unusual for this time of year
“Storms typically do not strengthen regularly over the main hurricane development zone until mid-August or later,” according to AccuWeather.
“The period from late June through much of July is typically quiet with only one or two named systems by mid- to late July.”
Here’s the latest update from the NHC as of 2 p.m. June 28:
Where is Tropical Depression Two? When will it become Tropical Storm Beryl or hurricane?
Tropical Depression Two: The low pressure system that NHC has been monitoring over the central tropical Atlantic has developed sufficiently organized deep convection in bands around the center. In addition, visible satellite images show that the circulation has tightened, and the center now appears well-defined. Thus, a tropical depression has formed, and the initial intensity is set at 35 mph based on the latest Dvorak classifications. Development this far east in late June is unusual, in fact, there have only been a few storms in history that have formed over the central or eastern tropical Atlantic this early in the year.
The depression is moving westward at 17 mph. A strong subtropical ridge to the north of the system should keep it moving relatively quickly westward to west-northwestward during the next few days. The system might gain a little more latitude toward the end of the forecast period when it nears a weakness in the subtropical ridge. There is a fair amount of spread in the model guidance, especially in the day 3-5 time frame, due to differences in the strength of the ridge and the aforementioned weakness. The NHC track forecast lies near the consensus aids and is slightly south of the middle of the guidance envelope. Based on this forecast, the system is expected to move across the Windward Islands Sunday night and Monday and track across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea through the middle of next week.
Typically, the atmospheric environment is unfavorable for intensification in this portion of the Atlantic basin in late June. However, the overall atmospheric and oceanic conditions appear conducive for steady strengthening during the next few days. Accordingly, the official forecast calls for strengthening and shows the depression becoming a tropical storm tonight or early Saturday and then a hurricane before it reaches the Windward Islands. It should be noted that some of the model guidance is quite aggressive and a fair amount are higher than the official forecast. For example, the hurricane regional models show the system becoming a major hurricane and the GFS model shows the system deepening below 970 mb prior to reaching the Windward Islands.
Formation chance through 48 hours: high, near 100 percent.
Formation chance through 7 days: high, near 100 percent.
Spaghetti models for Tropical Depression Two
Can’t see the map? Open in a new browser.
Special note about spaghetti models: Spaghetti model illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.
Tropical Storm or Hurricane Beryl? Could Florida, US feel an impact?
It’s becoming likely that we will have a Hurricane named #Beryl plowing through the Windward Islands Mon am through Tues am. Data shows it reaching Cat 1 status with winds 74-95 mph. All interests in the Windward Islands should be preparing for a hurricane. Upgrade likely today pic.twitter.com/JxbkhDK9Hi
— Hurricane Tracker App (@hurrtrackerapp) June 28, 2024
“Depending on steering breezes, the system may push westward across Central America later next week or turn northwestward and reach the western Gulf of Mexico next weekend, where it would become a concern for the United States,” according to AccuWeather.
Forecasters recommended residents in the Caribbean, Central America and the Gulf Coast of the U.S. monitor the system closely.
Jim Cantore: Tropical Depression Two shows potential to become high end tropical storm or hurricane
“Meanwhile in the tropics … Very unusual tropical wave to move across the Main Development Region (MDR) potentially unscathed and potentially becoming an issue for the Windward Islands on Monday, The Weather Channel meteorologist Jim Cantore tweeted Thursday, June 27.
Friday morning, Cantore tweeted:
“The sun is up on invest #95L as it is expected to mature even further over the next 24 to 72 hours.
“Much of the guidance has a high end TS or Cane by time it makes it to the Windwards by Monday which is certainly noteworthy. Given we’ve only had one hurricane in June before reaching the islands (1933) we don’t have a large dataset from which to work with.
“That said this is certainly unusual for this time of year. Steering is locked westward with Atlantic subtropical ridge. Consensus then has it continuing west where at this point I don’t think its fair to proceed with any confidence on track and strength past the central Caribbean into the middle of next week. NHC confidence 90% on development at this time.”
Where is Invest 94L? Will it become tropical storm?
Invest 94L: The broad area of low pressure in the NW Caribbean is not expected to develop today while it moves west- northwestward. Expect moderate to fresh trade winds through Mon night, with the exceptions of fresh to strong southeast winds over the far western Caribbean through Sat night, and light to gentle winds over the southwestern Caribbean. Winds and seas are expected to increase in the Tropical N Atlantic Sun, the eastern Caribbean Mon, then the central Caribbean Tue and Tue night as a strong tropical wave, possibly a tropical cyclone, moves through. Storm conditions are possible near this feature in the Tropical N Atlantic Sun evening, spreading westward through time.
Regardless of development, heavy rainfall associated with the tropical wave will affect portions of Central America and Mexico through the weekend.
Formation chance through 48 hours: low, 30 percent.
Formation chance through 7 days: low, 30 percent.
Spaghetti models for Invest 94L
Can’t see the map? Open in a new browser.
Special note about spaghetti models: Spaghetti model illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.
What else is out there and how likely is it to strengthen?
Eastern tropical wave: A tropical wave located several hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Some slow development of this system is possible next week while it moves generally westward at 15 to 20 mph across the central and western tropical Atlantic.
Formation chance through 48 hours: low, near 0 percent.
Formation chance through 7 days: low, 30 percent.
Who is likely to be impacted?
Invest 95L: Residents in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of this system. There is a high chance of tropical cyclone formation for the next two to seven days. A gale warning has been issued beginning Saturday afternoon, according to the Hurricane Center.
Residents in the Windward Islands “may experience tropical storm conditions with squally rains, gusty thunderstorms and rough seas as early as Sunday,” according to AccuWeather.
Invest 94L: Regardless of development, heavy rainfall associated with the tropical wave will affect portions of Central America and Mexico through the weekend, according to AccuWeather.
Forecasters urge all residents to continue monitoring the tropics and to always be prepared. That advice is particularly important for what is expected to be a very active hurricane season.
Weather watches and warnings issued in Florida
When is the Atlantic hurricane season?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
When is the peak of hurricane season?
The peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.
National Hurricane Center map: What are forecasters watching now?
Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center include:
Interactive map: Hurricanes, tropical storms that have passed near your city
Excessive rainfall forecast
What’s next?
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This article originally appeared on Treasure Coast Newspapers: NHC: Tropical Storm Beryl expected to develop soon, become hurricane
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