(Bloomberg) — Stocks fell as traders geared up for a week of political risks and inflation data which may help guide bets on the outlook for global interest rates.
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Euro Stoxx 50 futures slipped. Most Asian equity benchmarks declined with Japanese stocks outperforming the region. The Japanese yen was below 160 per dollar as top currency official Masato Kanda said authorities are ready to intervene to support it 24-hours a day, if needed.
The moves come as markets are at a critical juncture for positioning into the second half of 2024 with the outlook for central bank policy rates from New Zealand to Japan and the US unclear. Inflation prints in Australia and Tokyo, as well as the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge of consumer costs, may yield clues, but political risks loom large.
Investors will be closely monitoring the first UK prime ministerial and US presidential debates scheduled this week, while the first round of voting in the French legislative election is set to take place this weekend.
“How the US dollar trades into month-end will be important to the direction of risk across markets,” said Bob Savage, head of markets strategy and insights at BNY Mellon in New York. Political developments from the US to France in coming days will “set the tone for fiscal risks.”
China Weakness
China’s currency fixing was little changed at 7.1201 per dollar on Monday, after the country’s assets sold off again last week as policymakers showed no urgency to roll out more stimulus.
The yuan’s weakness is symptomatic of deteriorating sentiment toward the world’s second-largest economy, which is also seeing a bond market rally as investors seek out haven assets. Benchmark yields have tumbled toward record lows amid mixed economic data and expectations of further stimulus.
“In the short term, especially in the third quarter, we do see the CNY under more depreciation pressure,” Becky Liu, head of China macro strategy at Standard Chartered Plc, said in a Bloomberg TV interview.
Later this week, the Federal Reserve’s favored inflation yardsticks are poised to show the tamest monthly advances since late last year — which may pave the way for officials to begin lowering interest rates. Treasury 10-year yields were steady in Asian trading.
US equities fell on Friday, and traders and strategists began to question how long this year’s rally can persist given shifting bets on central bank rate cuts and election uncertainties in Europe.
The S&P 500 Index has likely logged most of the gains it will see this year as investors are growing increasingly nervous about the stock market’s rich valuations, according to the latest Bloomberg Markets Live Pulse survey published on Monday.
Signs of skittishness are evident as about half of survey takers say stocks will see the beginning of a correction of at least 10% this year.
“The bottom line is that the ongoing policy mix of heavy fiscal spending and tight interest rate policy is crowding out many companies and consumers in way that is unsustainable,” Morgan Stanley strategist Michael Wilson wrote in a note. “Investors have recognized this outcome by bidding up the few stocks of the companies that are doing well in this environment.”
In commodities, oil extended the previous session’s decline toward $80 a barrel amid a stronger greenback and a technical indicator suggesting the recent rally has gone too far. Gold was little changed, having racked up a loss the previous week as investors pared bets on US rate cuts.
Key events this week:
BOJ issues Summary of Opinions from June policy meeting, Monday
Singapore CPI, Monday
Taiwan jobless rate, industrial production, Monday
Argentina unemployment, GDP, Monday
Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem speaks, Monday
San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly speaks, Monday
Fed Governor Christopher Waller speaks, Monday
Australia consumer confidence, Tuesday
Malaysia CPI, Tuesday
Canada CPI, Tuesday
Spain GDP, Tuesday
US Conference Board consumer confidence, Tuesday
Fed Governor Lisa Cook, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman speaks, Tuesday
Australia CPI, Wednesday
UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and Labour leader Keir Starmer debate, Wednesday
Bank of Finland’s 3rd International Monetary Policy Conference begins, Wednesday
RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser speaks, Thursday
Japan retail sales, Thursday
Philippines rate decision, Thursday
China industrial profits, Thursday
Eurozone economic confidence, consumer confidence, Thursday
BOE releases financial stability report, Thursday
Sweden rate decision, Thursday
Turkey rate decision, Thursday
US durable goods, initial jobless claims, GDP, wholesale inventories, Thursday
Mexico unemployment, trade, rate decision, Thursday
Japan Tokyo CPI, unemployment, industrial production, Friday
UK GDP, Friday
France CPI, Friday
Italy CPI, Friday
Spain CPI, Friday
Czech Republic GDP, Friday
US PCE inflation, spending and income, University of Michigan consumer sentiment, Friday
Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin speaks, Friday
Brazil unemployment, Friday
Chile industrial production, unemployment, Friday
Colombia unemployment, rate decision, Friday
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
S&P 500 futures were little changed as of 6:39 a.m. London time
Nasdaq 100 futures were little changed
Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.1%
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.4%
The MSCI Emerging Markets Index fell 0.6%
Nikkei 225 futures (OSE) rose 0.7%
Japan’s Topix rose 0.9%
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 fell 0.7%
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 0.8%
The Shanghai Composite fell 0.6%
Euro Stoxx 50 futures fell 0.2%
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
The euro was little changed at $1.0697
The Japanese yen was little changed at 159.79 per dollar
The offshore yuan was little changed at 7.2895 per dollar
The British pound was little changed at $1.2647
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin fell 2% to $62,400.15
Ether fell 2.2% to $3,357.01
Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries was little changed at 4.25%
Germany’s 10-year yield declined two basis points to 2.41%
Britain’s 10-year yield advanced three basis points to 4.08%
Australia’s 10-year yield was little changed at 4.21%
Commodities
This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
—With assistance from Aya Wagatsuma.
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