Republican and former Los Angeles Dodgers star Steve Garvey is struggling to consolidate GOP support in California’s race for the U.S. Senate — which could boost Democratic Rep. Katie Porter’s chances to claim the crucial second place spot, according to a new poll.
The poll — which was exclusively shared with POLITICO and conducted by researchers at USC, CSU Long Beach and Cal Poly Pomona — found Democratic Rep. Adam Schiff holds a commanding lead ahead of the March 5 primary, with the support of 25 percent of likely voters.
That means the final weeks of the Senate primary contest will likely be laser focused on the tight battle for second place between Porter and Garvey. The poll shows each securing the support of 15 percent of likely voters.
California’s top-two primary will determine which candidates advance to the November general election — and whether Schiff faces an easier red v. blue contest or an expensive intraparty battle with another prominent Democrat. The third major Democrat in the race, Rep. Barbara Lee, trailed her opponents, with the support of 7 percent of likely voters. All other candidates in both parties are at 1 percent or less.
Other recent polls showed Garvey surging into the second place spot, but this latest survey from university researchers suggests his support could be stalling at a crucial moment before mail-in ballots drop next week. That’s, in large part, because a significant portion of Republican voters — 37 percent — remain undecided.
“It might help Porter squeak through,” said Christian Grose, the lead pollster and a political science professor at the University of Southern California. “On paper, someone who has the stature that (Garvey) has should be higher. He’s underperforming what one Republican could typically do.”
Grose noted that the poll was conducted mostly after Garvey’s shaky performance at the first Senate debate last week, which he said could have harmed his numbers. The Republican candidate has also been noncommittal about whether he’d vote for former President Donald Trump again — a stance which Porter and Schiff ridiculed at length during the debate.
Grose said who advances to the general election could hinge on GOP voter turnout and whether Garvey or Porter is more successful in reaching out to millions of California voters who are still undecided, a group that includes a high concentration of Latino and Asian voters.
Another key factor could be the extent to which progressive Democrats stick with Lee, the most outspoken progressive in the race, or migrate to Porter or Schiff in the final weeks.
“Barbara Lee is potentially a little bit of a spoiler as she fades backward,” Grose said.
The survey was conducted Jan. 21-29 and included 1,416 online respondents who were randomly selected using voter records and surveyed in English and Spanish. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.6 percentage points.
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