Rose Bowl: No. 1 Michigan vs. No. 4 Alabama (CFP semifinal)
Location: Pasadena
Date: 5 p.m. ET, Jan. 1
TV: ESPN
How these teams got here
Michigan (13-0): The Wolverines went undefeated during the regular season for the second consecutive season. Michigan has not lost a regular-season football game since it lost 37-33 at Michigan State on Oct. 30, 2021.
Michigan outscored opponents by 24 points per game in 2022 and increased that margin to 27 points per game in 2023. No team gives up fewer points than the Wolverines, either. Michigan leads the country in scoring defense and allows just 9.5 points per game.
Just five teams have scored double-digits against the Wolverines all season and no team has scored more than 24 points. Maryland scored 24 in a 31-24 loss on Nov. 18, the week before Michigan beat Ohio State 30-24.
Head coach Jim Harbaugh was not on the sidelines for either the Maryland or Ohio State game and has been on the sidelines for just seven of Michigan’s 13 games this season. He began the season with a self-imposed three-game suspension related to an NCAA investigation into recruiting violations. And then as you assuredly know by now, he ended the season with a three-game suspension imposed by the Big Ten for the sign-stealing scheme allegedly orchestrated by former staffer Connor Stalions.
Alabama (12-1): You probably shouldn’t ask a Florida State fan how Alabama got into the playoff.
The Crimson Tide started the season with an easy win in Week 1 before a home loss to Texas in Week 2. Things got even weirder in Week 3 as QB Jalen Milroe was benched following two interceptions against the Longhorns and the Alabama offense looked inept with Ty Simpson and Tyler Buchner in a 17-3 win over South Florida in a Tampa downpour.
Milroe got his job back in Week 4 and seemingly got better every week. And as he improved, Alabama’s offense improved. The Tide beat Ole Miss 24-10 in his first game back in the starting lineup and beat Tennessee 34-20 on Oct. 21 and LSU 42-28 on Nov. 4.
The loss to Texas remained a theme of the college football season as the playoff committee kept the Longhorns ahead of Alabama in every set of rankings all season. As Alabama kept winning, Texas kept winning. And the committee had no desire or reason to drop Texas ahead of Alabama.
Alabama avoided a massive upset in the final week of the season on an incredible fourth-and-31 completion from Milroe to Isaiah Bond for a 27-24 win over Auburn. The next week, the committee’s insistence to keep Texas ahead of Alabama defined the season after the Crimson Tide beat previously-No. 1 Georgia, 27-24.
With Texas beating Oklahoma State in the Big 12 title game, the Longhorns finished with the same record as Alabama. And with 13-0 Florida State without injured QB Jordan Travis, both Texas and Alabama got into the playoff ahead of the Seminoles.
Players to know
Michigan WR Roman Wilson: Michigan is not going to be mistaken for a pass-happy offense. The Wolverines run 38 times a game and throw just 24 passes per game. QB J.J. McCarthy has thrown just 287 passes all season.
But Michigan’s pass game may be the key to a Wolverines’ win on Monday, and that’s where Wilson comes in. The senior is Michigan’s leading receiver with 41 catches for 662 yards and 11 scores this season. But his production tailed off toward the end of the season.
After catching eight touchdowns through Michigan’s first five games, Wilson has just three over the last eight and one over Michigan’s last five games. He was held without a catch against Penn State as Michigan famously ran, ran and ran again in the second half and has just five catches over the last four games (Wilson did leave the Maryland game early with a head injury).
Wilson’s lack of touchdowns isn’t solely on him; he’s caught the only TD pass McCarthy has thrown since he threw four against Michigan State. But he’s also a great barometer for the Michigan pass offense.
The Wolverines are unlikely to be able to run all over Alabama and will need to keep the Crimson Tide’s defense honest with the pass game.
Alabama WR Jermaine Burton: Bond leads the Crimson Tide with 44 catches, but the former Georgia player is the Crimson Tide’s deep threat. Can he take the top off of the Michigan secondary?
Burton has 35 catches for 777 yards and leads all Alabama receivers with eight touchdowns. Outside of Bond and Burton, no Alabama player has more than 19 catches. Amari Niblack is the team’s third-leading receiver with 19 grabs for 321 yards.
Burton has also caught four touchdowns in his past five games and has scored in three consecutive games. After nine catches for 197 yards and two scores against Texas A&M, Burton didn’t sniff the 100-yard mark for three games. But he had three catches for 105 yards and a score against Chattanooga and four catches for 107 yards and a TD against Auburn.
Opposing offenses average just 153 yards passing per game against Michigan and QBs have completed less than 55% of their passes. The key to Alabama’s offensive success over the second half of the season has been the team’s deep passing game. And Burton is Alabama’s best chance for a big completion.
What’s on the line
Michigan: The Wolverines are in the College Football Playoff for the third consecutive season but are still looking for their first win in the four-team playoff era. Michigan lost to Georgia in the Orange Bowl in 2021 and fell to TCU a year ago in the Fiesta Bowl.
Michigan is also looking for its first national title since the 1997 season and just its second since 1948.
Alabama: Nick Saban’s team has been the most successful of the four-team playoff era. Alabama has missed the playoff just twice over the past decade and has won all but one of its semifinal games. That loss came in the first playoff at the end of the 2014 season when No. 4 Ohio State upset the No. 1 Crimson Tide. Since then, Alabama is 6-0 in semifinal games as it looks for its fourth national title in the playoff era.
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