The Russian Federation may make use of the improved weather conditions in the Black Sea to launch another attack on Ukraine using both drones and missiles of various types, particularly Kalibr cruise missiles.
Source: Natalia Humeniuk, Head of the Joint Coordination Press Centre of the Defence Forces of Ukraine’s South, on the national joint 24/7 newscast on 17 January
Quote: “Taking advantage of the improved weather conditions, the enemy has obviously returned to inflicting terror every night. In particular, we see that last night was quite tense, and it is quite likely that such scenarios will be repeated.
Analysing today’s combat day, we see that the enemy used missile strikes on various fronts, including the south-eastern front, and concentrated on central Ukraine.
Attempts to analyse the air defence system, its readiness and its density – they used missiles like the Kh-59 that was shot down in Dnipro Oblast, as well as the Kh-31P, an anti-radar missile that targeted Kryvyi Rih but lost its combat capability in the air – indicate that the enemy is trying to find ways to be more effective in their attacks.”
Details: Humeniuk noted that the threat on Wednesday evening is related to the possible use of unmanned aerial vehicles.
According to Humeniuk, when the Russians carry out UAV attacks they take the infrastructure of the relevant settlements into account: if the drones come from the sea and are shot down, they can still cause damage.
Humeniuk added that recently, aerial targets have been manoeuvring frequently, changing their route in flight. The Russians also attempt to disperse and confuse Ukrainian air defence forces.
The Russian Federation now has two missile carriers in the Black Sea: the Admiral Makarov frigate and a small Buyan M-class missile ship, which combined can carry 16 Kalibr missiles, according to Humeniuk.
“Given this intensification against the background of improved weather conditions, including conditions at sea – the storm is subsiding a bit – the enemy may strike using sea-based missiles,” Humeniuk said.
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