The Grand National is the biggest event of the British racing calendar, with 34 horses taking to the iconic Aintree fences this year.
The famous race, which has started at 5.15pm since 2016, will now begin at 4pm on April 13, 2024. The change is part of five new measures introduced this year to ensure the safety and welfare of the horses and jockeys.
The race is a handicap event, which means each horse is rated beforehand and weighted accordingly to ensure a level playing field. This further complicates the betting market and makes the race the most eagerly anticipated in the National Hunt calendar.
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However, there is help at hand in the form of the Grosvenor Sport SuperComputer that has given Corach Rambler a 13% chance of winning the 2024 Grand National.
Statisticians have written the code using a variety of factors to produce as accurate a model as possible, with the race then being run 1,000 times to ensure accuracy and rule out anomalous results.
The model utilises the odds provided by bookmakers and the Racing Post rating for each horse in the race to ascertain the probability of each horse winning or finishing in any given position.
To accommodate uncertainties such as weather conditions and the inherent randomness present in all sports, a certain degree of chance has been integrated into the model. The outcome of this process has produced the following results:
2023 winner Corach Rambler has been given a 13% chance of winning, ahead of I Am Maximus at 9.3% and Vanillier at 6.2% chance of winning. 2022 winner Noble Yeats has just a 2.6% chance of victory.
However, it’s worth keeping an eye on 28/1 shot Galia Des Liteaux, who has a outside chance at 3%.
A spokesperson for Grosvenor Sport said: “It is extremely rare for a horse to win back-to-back Grand National titles due to the handicapping system, but the SuperComputer has factored in the conditions for the spectacle.
“Reports suggest the track at Aintree will be battered once again by heavy rain, with the course currently soft, heavy in places and in danger of turning into a real slog. Under the guidance of Lucinda Russell, we expect the Corach Rambler to deliver once again.”
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